1 Ramadhan 1446 Hijriah Could Fall on March 1 or March 2, 2025

Although Muhammadiyah has determined that 1 Ramadan 1446 Hijri falls on Saturday (1/3/2025), the decision of the government, Nahdlatul Ulama, and other Islamic mass organizations is still awaiting the observation of the crescent moon on Friday evening (28/2/2025). It is possible that 1 Ramadan will be set for the same date, Saturday (1/3/2025), or instead Sunday (2/3/2025).

The conjunction or alignment of the Sun, Moon, and Earth or the occurrence of the dead Moon phase will occur on Friday (28/2) at 7:44 WIB. Shortly after the dead Moon phase occurs, the new Moon phase will begin which marks the beginning of a new month in the Hijri calendar.

If other lunar calendars are mathematical, meaning they are determined solely through calculations (hisab), then the Islamic calendar is an astronomical calendar.

In determining the beginning of the month, the Islamic calendar differs from other lunar calendars. While the beginning of the month in other lunar calendars is generally determined automatically based on the start of the new Moon phase, the beginning of the month in the Islamic calendar is determined by the sighting of the hilal, or the first thin crescent Moon visible after sunset following the conjunction.

If other lunar calendars are mathematical in nature, determined solely through calculations (hisab), the Islamic calendar is an astronomical calendar. The determination of the beginning of a month in the Hijri calendar is based on observing the crescent moon (rukyat) or calculations based on the possibility of sighting the crescent moon (imkan rukyat).

According to data from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), at sunset on Friday evening (28/2), coinciding with 29 Sha'ban 1446 H, across all regions of Indonesia from Papua to Aceh, the height of the new moon ranged between 3.02 degrees and 4.69 degrees. At the same time, the elongation or angular distance between the Sun and the Moon reached 4.78 degrees to 6.4 degrees.

For the crescent moon to be observed, the new criteria set by the Ministers of Religious Affairs of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore (MABIMS) require the Moon's altitude to be at least 3 degrees and its elongation to be no less than 6.4 degrees. Based on these criteria, the only region in Indonesia where the crescent moon's position meets both conditions is in the westernmost part of Aceh, namely Banda Aceh, Sabang, and the western side of Aceh Besar Regency.

One of the locations for observing the crescent moon in the westernmost part of Aceh, which has the potential to sight the crescent for Ramadan 1446, is Lhoknga in Aceh Besar. If the crescent moon is successfully observed, it is highly likely that the government will declare the start of Ramadan 1446 on Saturday (1/3). If the crescent moon is not observed, the number of days in the month of Sha'ban will be completed to 30 days, making the start of Ramadan fall on Sunday (2/3).

For that reason, make sure to wait for the results of the isbat session that will be held by the government on Friday evening (28/2). Considering that the Maghrib time in Lhoknga on that day is at 6:52 PM WIB, the people of Indonesia in other regions need to be patient in awaiting the results of the isbat session, as it will take place a few minutes later than usual.

It takes time to observe the crescent moon. The crescent moon in Lhoknga will be above the horizon for about 22 minutes before finally setting at 19:14 WIB. The crescent moon's visibility time span must be utilized optimally by crescent moon observers because Indonesian Muslims rely heavily on their testimonies.

Even if the crescent moon is observed, it will take additional time to verify the observation report until the swearing-in which will be conducted by the local religious court. If the crescent moon is not observed, then the process will be shorter.

So, for this year, the public needs to be a little patient to wait for the Ministry of Religion (Kemenag) to officially announce the results of the isbat session regarding the start of Ramadhan 1446.

Almanacs issued by various institutions in Indonesia, starting from the Indonesian Hijri Calendar 2025 issued by the Ministry of Religious Affairs, the Single Global Hijri Calendar (KHGT) 1446 Muhammadiyah, the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Almanac 2025 Miladiyah, all state that 1 Ramadhan 1446 falls on Saturday (1/3). However, the NU Almanac is always accompanied by a statement that the decision on the beginning of the hijri month awaits the results of rukyat.

All Hijri calendars are arranged based on hisab with the determination of the beginning of the month determined based on different criteria for the beginning of the Hijri month. The Ministry of Religion and NU use the new MABIMS criteria. With this criteria, it is true that the beginning of Ramadan 1446 will fall on Saturday (1/3) because there is already an area of Indonesia that meets the criteria even though it is only at the tip of the Aceh region.

"With the principle of unified legal territory, if there is one region that has met the MABIMS criteria, other regions will follow suit," said Hendro Setyanto, a astronomy researcher who is also the founder of the Imah Noong Observatory and Planetarium, Lembang, Bandung, Thursday (26/2/2025).

The possibility of 1 Ramadhan falling on Sunday (2/3) arises because the Ministry of Religion uses a combination of hisab and rukyat systems to determine the beginning of the three hijri months related to obligatory worship, namely Ramadhan (9th month), Syawal (10), and Zulhijah (12). This provision is implemented according to the Indonesian Ulema Council Fatwa Number 2 of 2004.

Because the area that meets the requirements to observe the crescent moon at the beginning of Ramadan 1446 H is only the western tip of Aceh, the chances of seeing the crescent moon are less than usual. Moreover, areas that have often reported seeing the crescent moon, such as areas on the North Coast of Java, have not met the criteria that allow the crescent moon to be seen.

Moreover, the BMKG weather forecast around Lhoknga, Aceh Besar on Friday (28/2/2025) tomorrow is cloudy with a humidity level of between 69-94 percent. While in Sabang, light rain is predicted with a humidity of between 78-91 percent. The amount of water vapor in the air certainly makes observing the crescent moon not easy.

If the crescent moon of the beginning of Ramadan is visible from the western tip of Aceh, then the potential for Indonesian Muslims to start Ramadan 1446 simultaneously is wide open. If the crescent moon is not visible, then the age of the month of Sha'ban (8) will be completed to 30 days so that 1 Ramadan will fall on Sunday (2/3).

Although the crescent moon can be observed by hisab, if rukyat fails to observe the crescent moon, then the observation results will be the reference. Rukyat functions as a method of proof of the hisab that is carried out.

Meanwhile, NU uses the rukyat method in determining the beginning of its Hijri month. Hisab is only used as a support or tool to perform rukyat. However, apart from the new MABIMS criteria, NU also uses the qath'iyrukyat requirements to determine whether the current month's lifespan is completed at 30 days or not.

If the crescent moon that is potentially observable by calculation, but cannot be observed such as due to weather conditions, then the age of the Hijri month will usually be rounded up to 30 days. However, with qath’iy rukyat, if the elongation of the crescent moon has reached 9.9 degrees, then the age of the current month is no longer rounded up but is immediately considered to have entered a new Hijri month.

This rule is to avoid the length of the next Hijri month being less than 29 days or more than 30 days. This provision also made 1 Muharam 1446 H/2024 different between NU and the government and Muhammadiyah. For Muharam, the government only uses hisab, while NU continues to use rukyat. Although the hisab results have met the new MABIMS criteria, because it has not reached the qath’iy rukyat, the NU Hijri new year came a day later than that set by the government.

Meanwhile, Muhammadiyah, which determines the start of the Hijriah month using the reckoning method, on February 12 2025, has announced that 1 Ramadhan 1446 will fall on Saturday (1/3). Even though at the beginning of the last Hijriah year Muhammadiyah announced that it would use the KHGT criteria as the new criteria for the beginning of the Hijriah month, it turns out that this year Muhammadiyah is still using the wujudl hilal criteria.

"KHGT has not been officially implemented, it is only in the introduction and socialization stage. The plan is that KHGT will only be used at the turn of the year 1447 H," said Head of the Communication and Public Service Bureau of the Muhammadiyah Central Leadership Edy Kuscahyanto.

The beginning of the Hijri month in the KHGT criteria requires the conjunction to occur before 00.00 universal time (UT) or Greenwich time, England, and the position of the crescent moon in any region throughout the world has reached a height of 5 degrees and an elongation of 8 degrees. Meanwhile, the criteria for the existence of the crescent moon require that in the Indonesian region, the conjunction occurs before Maghrib, when the Sun sets the crescent moon is above the horizon, and the Sun sets before the Moon. With these two criteria, 1 Ramadhan 1416 H falls on Saturday (1/3).

The possibility of the beginning of Ramadan 1446 in Indonesia falling on Saturday (1/3) or Sunday (2/3) invites uncertainty and always causes controversy in society. The debate generally escalates on social media because it is often based on prejudice and assumptions about the system for determining the beginning of the Hijri month.

One that often arises is the benefits of observing the crescent moon in areas where the crescent moon is not possible to be observed by calculation. If there is a report of seeing the crescent moon in that area, then the testimony will be rejected because by calculation or theoretically, the crescent moon cannot be observed because the height and elongation of the crescent moon are less than the minimum limit.

However, during this time, crescent observations will still be carried out in areas where it is not possible to see the crescent by calculation. This action will also be carried out on the crescent observation on Friday (28/2) evening. Therefore, many netizens consider this action as a waste of state budget.

Judhistira Aria Utama, an astronomy and astrophysics researcher who is also a lecturer at the Physics Study Program at the Indonesian Education University in Bandung, said that the imkan rukyat criteria used in compiling the calendar and the basis for determining whether or not the crescent moon can be observed does not guarantee that the crescent moon can be observed even if the minimum limit is reached.

This minimum limit only provides guidance based on scientific evidence regarding the minimum requirements for the appearance of the crescent moon. The problem is, observing the new moon is not only determined by the position of the new moon, but also the weather, atmospheric conditions, the skills of the craftsman, the use of tools, and the presence of celestial objects around the predicted position of the new moon.

Observation of the crescent moon in areas where it is not possible to observe the crescent moon is still required to a certain extent to be aware of the potential for the appearance of the crescent moon. This vigilance is needed to provide certainty of prayer times, similar to errors in statistical calculations.

"Science is open to the development of new data," he said.

Therefore, if there is a testimony of seeing the crescent moon from an area outside the western tip of Aceh during the crescent moon observation at the beginning of Ramadan 1446, Aria proposed that it be accepted as long as it includes valid evidence in the form of a crescent moon photo. The crescent moon photo must also be accompanied by various supporting information such as observation mode, type of equipment, observation time and duration of the crescent moon observed, weather, and the number of observers who saw the crescent moon.

Thus, the testimony of seeing the crescent moon can be validated for its truth and the data can be used to improve the criteria for imkan rukyat that are currently used. After all, the new MABIMS criteria that are currently used also come from data from successful crescent moon observations, both in Indonesia and abroad.

In addition, Hendro continued, the new MABIMS criteria were designed to bridge the gap between hisab and rukyat followers. So far, this criterion has been adopted more by Islamic organizations that implement rukyat in determining the beginning of the Hijri month. Meanwhile, the Persatuan Islam organization also uses this criterion even though they only use hisab in compiling the calendar.

Although the potential for differences in starting Ramadhan 1446 is open, the community still needs to be open to responding to the differences that exist. All methods of determining the beginning of the Hijriah month, both hisab or rukyat with various existing criteria, are chosen based on religious arguments that are believed, not a matter of which is easier, more practical, more certain, or more cost-effective.

The good news is that Indonesian Muslims will most likely celebrate Eid al-Fitr 1446 together. In the tradition of Indonesian Muslims, the togetherness of Eid al-Fitr has a deeper meaning for the community than starting Ramadan together. However, the unity of the criteria for the beginning of the Hijri month in Indonesia can hopefully be realized so that all Muslims can carry out worship together.