What's Behind Gerindra's Maneuver to Nominate Prabowo as Presidential Candidate for the 2029 Presidential Election?

The Gerindra Party presented a surprise. Not only did they suddenly change the National Leadership Meeting forum into an Extraordinary Congress and reappoint Prabowo Subianto as the general chairman, but they also decided to nominate Prabowo as a presidential candidate in the 2029 Presidential Election. What is the analysis of political observers regarding this early move by the Gerindra Party?

The government led by President Prabowo has only been in office for four months, but in the Extraordinary Congress (KLB) of Gerindra held in Hambalang, Bogor, West Java, on Thursday (13/2/2025), the party founded by Prabowo is already looking ahead to the 2029 Presidential Election (Pilpres).

The decision to nominate Prabowo again as a presidential candidate is one of the party's decision points.

"We believe that the improvements and welfare enhancements through pro-people programs by President Prabowo must be continued. Thus, the improvement of the people's welfare and the country's economy can be felt more maximally," said the Secretary General of Gerindra, Ahmad Muzani, explaining the basis for the emergence of this encouragement.

At the request of the congress, Prabowo did not immediately agree. According to Muzani, he asked for time to fulfill his promises to the people that he made during the 2024 Presidential Election campaign. "He (Prabowo) stated God willing, but he asked to be given time to complete his presidential duties, to fulfill his promises to the people," said Muzani.

What is the analysis of political observers regarding Gerindra's early steps?

The Executive Director of the Indonesian Survey Institute, Djayadi Hanan, views Prabowo's nomination as a way for Gerindra to immediately focus on the 2029 elections. Gerindra can quickly accelerate efforts to win both the presidential and legislative elections, thereby sweeping both types of elections. In the last election, although Gerindra succeeded in securing Prabowo's victory in the presidential election, the party's vote count and number of seats in the House of Representatives ranked third after PDI-P and Golkar.

In addition, he sees the proposal as a signal to other parties that Gerindra is serious about nominating Prabowo for a second term in his leadership. This signal is important because there has been speculation that Prabowo would only serve as president for one term or until 2029.

Lead Expert Researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency, Firman Noor, noted the same thing.

"Gerindra wants to show that Prabowo can still be relied upon for long-term politics, while also addressing the concerns of some parties who believe Prabowo is only for one term," he said.

In addition, it could be that Gerindra's maneuver is an attempt to lure other parties, especially those currently in the Advanced Indonesia Coalition plus (the coalition of political parties supporting Prabowo-Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the 2024 Presidential Election) to stay together in the ranks, especially to face the 2029 Presidential Election.

Gerindra may be worried that other political parties will leave the ranks and nominate their own presidential and vice presidential candidates in 2029 due to the Constitutional Court's ruling that removed the threshold for nominating president and vice president. The ruling opened up opportunities for every political party participating in the election to nominate candidates. Gerindra quickly read the political situation to provide a clear alternative for other political parties to immediately gather support.

However, Gerindra's move was too fast and risky. Prabowo has just started his administration. His flagship programs have only just begun to be implemented. So, it is not yet clear to what extent the program has a positive impact on society. If it turns out to have a negative impact, in the sense of harming society, Gerindra could be harmed. Prabowo's failure could have an effect on Gerindra's declining electability in the next election, and it is clear that Prabowo will fail to be elected if he runs in 2029.

"Currently, the satisfaction level is very high, the cabinet is still solid, and everything is under Prabowo's control. Even though politics in the future are still very dynamic," he said.

Instead of focusing the party's movement for 2029, there is homework that Gerindra must think about so that the party can remain at the top of the political parties in every election. The homework in question is preparing a successor figure for Prabowo if he is no longer leading the party.

Djayadi Hanan sees Gerindra as one of the parties whose regeneration is slow. This is because the party is only controlled by a handful of people, so the process of institutionalizing the party has not been running optimally.

In addition, second and third tier figures in Gerindra tend not to be ready to occupy the top leadership. Cadres are also worried that if Prabowo is no longer the general chairman, the party's electability will decline. It can even cause divisions because of the emergence of various factions.

On the other hand, Prabowo's position as President has also strengthened his political position. This has resulted in no other figure daring to challenge Prabowo for the position of general chairman.

"It seems that Gerindra is not ready to be let go by Prabowo. There is no leader other than Prabowo who can truly unite all groups," he said analyzing the reasons why Gerindra cadres asked Prabowo to lead the party again after 10 years of leading the party.

In fact, with Prabowo's position as general chairman and president, enormous political power is in his hands. With that, Prabowo has the opportunity to ensure smooth leadership regeneration.

The next five-year leadership period should be used to make Gerindra a modern, institutionalized party. Prabowo must use the opportunity to prepare for leadership regeneration as well as party cadre formation.

Party regeneration can be easier to do when the political party is in power. This is because Gerindra currently has all the human resources and logistics to carry out regeneration and leadership transition.

"Regeneration and cadre formation are very dependent on the political will of the leader. If Prabowo has a vision to make Gerindra a surviving party, he will definitely try to institutionalize the party," he said.

Head of the Department of Politics and Social Change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Arya Fernandes also saw that regeneration at the top of Gerindra's leadership had not yet taken place because there was no other figure who had as strong an influence as Prabowo within the party.

Prabowo is still considered as the figure with the strongest influence internally. The appointment of Prabowo as general chairman is considered to be able to prevent internal conflict in the fight for the general chairman position. Prabowo is also considered a figure who is able to increase electoral impact and make Gerindra remain as a top party.

"Other figures are considered incapable of defeating Prabowo's power. So Prabowo remains the symbol of Gerindra," he said. Gerindra eventually became a party that relies on Prabowo's figure.