United States, US Card, Israel-Hamas Talks

The first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which has been in effect for 42 days since January 19, 2025, has been welcomed by the world. Hamas has carried out six waves of hostage releases, which Israel has responded to by releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons. It is hoped that negotiations will continue with the second and third phases of the ceasefire, creating regional peace.

However, after only a few weeks, an obstacle emerged. On one side, Hamas accused Israel of obstructing the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip. Conversely, Israel also accused Hamas of not fulfilling its commitment by threatening to cancel the release of hostages, over the weekend (Saturday, February 15, 2025).

On the other hand, Hamas Spokesperson Abdel Latif al-Qanoua stated that they are ready to negotiate for a second phase ceasefire by being present in Doha, Qatar since February 4, 2025. It turns out they had to wait for the results of the meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which took place on the same day when Hamas was already in Doha.

During the Trump-Netanyahu meeting in Washington DC some time ago, CNN on February 6, 2025, mentioned that Netanyahu presented a souvenir in the form of a gold pager. The souvenir seemed to refer to Israel's terror attack on Hezbollah members in Lebanon, which involved the explosion of pagers used by thousands of members of the group.

A massive attack occurred in September 2024, resulting in 37 deaths and thousands of people injured and permanently disabled. In response, Trump provided a photo featuring the two of them with his signature, referring to Bibi (Netanyahu) as a Great Leader.

On the Brink

Efforts to continue the second phase of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza seem to be on the brink. Hamas demands the withdrawal of Israeli soldiers and a complete cessation of the war. This is opposed by the right-wing faction in Israel, which is pushing for a total war against Hamas.

From the Israeli side, David Weinberg, a researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, told the Jerusalem Post that the second and third phases of the ceasefire proposed by Joe Biden are not realistic.

Hamas is said not to release all hostages because it is a guarantee that they have a card to negotiate and can push Israeli public pressure on its government. On the other hand, Israel will not immediately leave Gaza and leave the security pockets that have been built in the Gaza Strip to end Hamas operations permanently and prevent arms smuggling.

Regarding Trump's approach, Weinberg said Trump should oppose Palestinian extremist groups such as Hamas and the militant factions, and reject the idea that an independent Palestinian state would bring Israeli–Palestinian peace.

Before leaving for the US on Sunday (2/2/2025), Netanyahu had canceled a meeting with Israeli negotiators. Even in the Times of Israel (2/2/2025) it was stated that Netanyahu actually asked about Israel's military operation plan in the Gaza Strip.

The option of continuing the war is still open to Netanyahu who comes from the extreme right political stream of the Likud Party. Netanyahu's supporters also insist on continuing the war and finishing off Hamas. Even though Hamas is the de facto government in the Gaza Strip.

On Saturday evening, Israel's Channel 12 TV reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu was considering appointing Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to lead the hostage negotiation team. He would replace Israel's Foreign Intelligence Service (Mossad) Director David Barnea.

An Israeli official said the main negotiations on the second phase of the ceasefire are now underway between the Israeli and US negotiating teams. For that, Netanyahu chose Ron Dermer, who has a diplomatic perspective, over Mossad Director Barnea, who has a security approach.

Meanwhile, Egypt and Qatar at least succeeded in encouraging Hamas to continue releasing the hostages on Saturday (15/2/2025) so that the phase 1 ceasefire continues while pushing for a phase 2 ceasefire agreement.

This United States factor is very important in the process of dialogue and peace in the Middle East. The Israeli daily Haaretz, which is critical of the Israeli government, quoted the statement of the Professor of Economics at Columbia University, United States, Jeffrey Sachs in an opinion dated January 10, 2025, which stated that for the past 30 years the Israeli government and Netanyahu have manipulated US foreign policy to carry out Israel's interests.

“The Israel lobby has taken over US foreign policy,” Sachs said.

The fluid US–Israel relationship was revealed by University of Chicago Politics Professor John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt Professor of Foreign Relations at Harvard Kennedy School who revealed a fluid but tight coalition of key politicians and institutions that steer US foreign policy in line with Israeli interests.

Regarding the close relationship between Israel and the US and Israel's influence in US politics, President Trump also featured Sachs' statement in his social media account Truth Social at a seminar at Cambridge Union, England, which stated that since 1995, Netanyahu has been trying to crush Hamas by launching war against the countries that support it, namely Iraq, Iran and Syria.

In January 2025 on Tucker Carlson's list, Jeffrey Sachs once again recalled the words of General Wesley Clark who led NATO to come to the Pentagon after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. Clark stated that in five years the US would be at war in seven countries, namely Iraq, Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Somalia, Libya, and Sudan.

"There are now six countries where America is involved in war. Only Iran remains. Western media is also part of the effort to inflame the spirit of fighting Iran," Sachs said.

The policy of restructuring the Middle Eastern states was formulated in the 1996 Clean Break Strategy on Israel Towards the Year 2000, prepared by the strategic think tank Institute for Modern Strategy and Political Studies, headed by former US Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Perle.

One of the recommendations of the study was to overthrow Saddam Hussein, conduct a proxy war in Syria and use the issue of weapons of mass destruction in disturbing countries that are considered a threat to Israel's security and safety. PM Netanyahu denied allegations of involvement and used Clean Break as a guideline for foreign policy in the region.

The spirit of reorganizing the region according to Israel-US strategic interests will certainly open up opportunities for conflict to always occur. In such conditions, the phase 2 ceasefire negotiations were held.

Professor Jonathan Rynhold from the Department of Politics at Bar Ilan University, Israel, in a report by the Jerusalem Post on February 10, 2025, stated that Israel wants more hostages to be released without having to agree to end the war.

Meanwhile, Yoni Ben Menachem, a Middle East expert at the Jerusalem Center for Security and International Relations, said that Israel must formulate a strategy before negotiations take place.

"Israel's demands will most likely be rejected by Hamas. Most likely what will happen is an extension of phase one of the ceasefire with the additional release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners," Menachem said. According to him, this will be done to avoid a prolonged crisis or a renewed war. However, there is no certainty that the war will end.

In fact, the proposal for a peaceful two-state solution between Israel and Palestine has received guarantees from Arab countries. In the Times of Israel on September 30, 2024, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi in front of the UN Security Council emphasized that 57 Arab and Muslim countries will guarantee Israel's security and safety if they accept peace through the Two-State Solution: Israel–Palestine.