Natural Disasters: A Routine That Will Always Occur in Indonesia

Indonesia is a country with a high potential for being hit by various natural disasters at any time. Its location at the intersection of the Indo-Australian, Eurasian, Pacific, and Little Philippine plates puts it at high risk of geological and volcanic disasters. As a tropical country located on the equator, it also increases the variety of natural hazards that occur seasonally, such as hydrometeorological disasters when rainfall intensity increases or fires during the dry season.

The geographical conditions cause Indonesia to routinely experience various natural disaster events spread throughout the country. These include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, floods, extreme weather, landslides, droughts, forest and land fires, as well as tidal waves and coastal erosion.

On an annual basis, thousands of natural disasters occur in Indonesia. According to a report from the National Disaster Management Agency, as of October 15, 2025, there have been at least 2,590 disaster events across Indonesia.

The forms of disasters are varied, ranging from geological and volcanological disasters such as earthquakes occurring up to 20 times; volcanic eruptions approximately 4 times; and tsunamis once. As usual, hydrometeorological disasters still dominate, with flooding occurring 1,287 times; landslides 188 times; and extreme weather events up to 539 times. The phenomenon of the climate crisis, which is causing rising temperatures, has also led to drought occurrences 30 times and forest and land fires up to 506 times. Tidal waves and coastal erosion, caused by various factors, have been monitored 15 times temporarily.

The impact of various natural disasters this year has caused damage to residential homes amounting to at least 31,051 units; public facilities such as schools, places of worship, and health services around 590 units; as well as offices and access bridges totaling up to 279 units.

The casualties it has caused are relatively numerous. The details are as follows: 360 people have died; 37 people are reported missing; and 606 people are injured. These thousands of disasters have caused approximately 5.2 million residents of Indonesia to suffer and temporarily evacuate.

The phenomenon of natural disasters is expected to continue increasing as we approach the end of 2025. One of these is hydrometeorological disasters, which pose a serious threat that must be monitored by both the government and the public. This is because hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and landslides are at high risk of occurring in several regions of Indonesia, particularly in areas where environmental carrying capacity is deteriorating, making it difficult for increased rainfall to be absorbed by nature from upstream to downstream.

Excess water cannot be accommodated by the river flow due to many riverbanks being repurposed, coupled with relatively poor drainage in residential areas. As a result, waterlogging occurs in various places, particularly in low-lying areas.

Another danger arises in hilly or mountainous areas where the soil tends to be unstable due to the decreasing density of forests or trees. Landslides can occur at any time when the intensity of rainfall increases. Communities residing in the vicinity are vulnerable to the impact of landslide debris that strikes.

Natural disasters and landslides that have struck parts of Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra in recent days are manifestations of the hydrometeorological disaster threats that are prone to occur during the rainy season.

Moreover, with the presence of the tropical cyclone 95B that formed in the Malacca Strait and continues to develop into Tropical Cyclone Senyar, it has triggered extreme rainfall resulting in floods and landslides in parts of Sumatra.

At least 11 regencies/cities in North Sumatra have been affected by floods and landslides. In addition, there are 16 regencies/cities in Aceh Province and 15 regencies/cities in West Sumatra that have also been impacted by similar disasters.

According to a report from the Aceh Disaster Management Agency (BPBA) as of November 27, 2025, hydrometeorological disasters are spread across the regions of Pidie, Aceh Besar, Pidie Jaya, Aceh Tamiang, Aceh Tenggara, Aceh Barat, Subulussalam, Bireuen, Lhokseumawe, and Aceh Timur. Additionally, they are also present in the areas of Langsa, Bener Meriah, Gayo Lues, Aceh Singkil, Aceh Utara, and Aceh Selatan.

Most incidents are still triggered by heavy rainfall, strong winds, and unstable geological conditions, resulting in flooding, landslides, and mudslides. These natural disasters have a significant impact on 33,817 households (KK) or nearly 120,000 individuals. For the time being, one person is reported missing, and 6,998 households or 20,759 individuals have been forced to evacuate to shelters.

In the North Sumatra region, as of Thursday, the government reported 48 fatalities and 88 others still declared missing. Several areas in North Sumatra that experienced the most severe disasters are located in the western coastal region, including South Tapanuli, Humbang Hasundutan, Central Tapanuli, and the city of Sibolga. Other areas in North Sumatra also affected by hydrometeorological disasters include Pakpak Bharat, South Nias, Mandailing Natal, North Tapanuli, Padang Sidimpuan, Nias, and Serdang Bedagai.

Furthermore, in the West Sumatra region, reports from the Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) as of November 27, 2025, recorded 21 fatalities, 3 missing persons, and 4 others injured. This hydrometeorological disaster has impacted several areas, including the city of Padang. Other regions affected by floods and landslides include Padang Pariaman, Solok, Pasaman, Pasaman Barat, Agam, and Pesisir Selatan.

With the extensive scale of the hydrometeorological disaster, several members of the DPR hope that President Prabowo Subianto will declare the disaster status in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra as a national disaster. With this status, the performance in disaster management will be further optimized as it will receive optimal support from the central government through the rehabilitation and reconstruction phases. This effort aims to prevent disruptions in public services of the local government due to the limited budgetary capacity of the regions.

Natural disasters occurring in Indonesia have a significant potential to affect the socio-economic life of the impacted communities as well as the financial capacity of the regions or the country to restore the situation. The larger the scale of the disaster, the greater the impact of the losses it causes, which will also become increasingly burdensome.

According to the Financial Note report along with the 2026 State Budget Draft, over the past 15 years, the average annual loss due to disasters has reached IDR 22.8 trillion. The largest contributors to financial losses are earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, fires, and floods.

The 2004 Aceh tsunami became a disaster with the largest losses amounting to approximately Rp 51.4 trillion. This was followed by the Yogyakarta earthquake in 2006 with total losses reaching Rp 29.15 trillion; the Padang earthquake in 2009 with losses of Rp 28.5 trillion; the Central Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami in 2018 valued at Rp 23.1 trillion; and the NTB earthquake in 2018 with losses of Rp 18.2 trillion.

Next, the losses from the forest fire disaster in 2015 reached Rp 16.1 trillion; the Jakarta flood in 2007 amounted to Rp 5.18 trillion; and the eruption of Mount Merapi in 2010 incurred losses of up to Rp 3.63 trillion.

With the impact of losses and damages, it is certainly not easy for the affected regions to quickly restore the situation to its original state. Support from the central government and various other parties is needed to address, rehabilitate, and also reconstruct the conditions.

The Indonesian government, at least over the past five years, has allocated a reserve fund for disaster management amounting to Rp 5 trillion per year. During this period, the absorption of the reserve fund has averaged no more than 100 percent, except in 2024, which reached 106 percent of the target.

As of the middle of this year, the absorption of Indonesia's disaster reserve funds has only reached less than Rp 1 trillion or 19 percent of the allocated amount. Of course, regarding this allocation of funds, a minimal absorption indicates a minimal intensity of disasters. Conversely, if the absorption is high and even exceeds the provided budget, it indicates a high intensity of disasters.

Therefore, given Indonesia's natural disaster-prone situation, the provision of disaster reserve funds is expected to be in line with optimal government mitigation efforts. This includes ensuring the availability of safety infrastructure while building public awareness of disaster prevention efforts. Furthermore, the government must be firm in addressing regulatory violations, particularly those involving economic activities that negatively impact the environment. These include deforestation, violations of protected forest areas, violations of river basin regulations, and spatial planning that poses a risk to nature. (KOMPAS LITBANG)