Rice Contributes 0.17 Percent to Annual Inflation

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – Rice contributed 0.17 percent to the annual inflation in September 2025. However, on a monthly basis, rice began to experience deflation. The decrease in rice prices on a monthly basis was influenced by the harvest season in several regions.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Wednesday (1/10/2025) that the annual and monthly inflation rates in September 2025 were 0.21 percent and 2.65 percent, respectively. The dominant food commodities contributing to the annual inflation were red chili and shallots, each accounting for 0.19 percent, followed by rice at 0.17 percent, and broiler chicken at 0.15 percent.

The dominant food commodities contributing to monthly inflation are red chili and broiler chicken, each accounting for 0.13 percent. Specifically for rice, this commodity actually contributed to a monthly deflation of 0.01 percent.

The decline in rice prices was influenced by the gadu harvest period and the abundant stock of milled rice in several regions in Indonesia.

The Deputy for Production Statistics at BPS, M Habibullah, stated that historically, from 2021 to 2024, rice has always contributed to inflation every September. However, in September 2025, rice instead contributed to deflation.

This occurred due to the decline in rice prices throughout September 2025. The decrease in rice prices was influenced by the harvest season and the abundant stock of milled rice in several regions of Indonesia.

"Rice mills have begun to confidently increase their stock of unhusked rice and process it into rice after the government raised the highest retail price for medium rice," he stated at a hybrid press conference held in Jakarta.

BPS recorded that the prices of various qualities of rice at mills, wholesalers, and retail in September 2025 decreased on a monthly basis. However, on an annual basis, the prices of rice increased.

The average price of rice at mills in September 2025, for instance, was Rp 13,512 per kilogram (kg). This price decreased by 0.68 percent month-on-month and increased by 5.83 percent year-on-year. At the retail level, the average price of rice reached Rp 15,375 per kg, which is a decrease of 0.13 percent month-on-month and an increase of 4.06 percent year-on-year.

According to the results of the Rice Observation Area Sample Framework in August 2025, national rice production in September 2025 is estimated to reach 3.28 million tons. This volume of rice production shows a slight increase compared to September 2024, which was 3.16 million tons.

Subsequently, national rice production from January to November 2025 is projected to reach 33.19 million tons. The volume of rice production has increased by 3.72 million tons or 12.62 percent compared to the same period in 2024, which reached 29.47 million tons.

Although rice prices are expected to start declining in 2025, the government remains vigilant regarding the potential increase in rice prices from October 2025 to February 2026. The government is also working to maintain the stability of broiler chicken prices, which have risen due to the increase in feed prices.

The Head of the National Food Agency (Bapanas), Arief Prasetyo Adi, stated that historically, the increase in rice prices typically occurs in October, November, December, January, and February. The government will strive to anticipate this through rice assistance and the distribution of rice under the Food Supply and Price Stabilization Program (SPHP).

As of the end of September 2025, the rice stock of Perum Bulog amounted to 3.905 million tons. If rice assistance and SPHP rice are distributed until the end of 2025, the rice stock at the end of December 2025 is estimated to still be 3 million tons.

"The stock is still more than sufficient to anticipate the increase in rice prices that usually occurs in January and February," he said.

Arief also stated that the rice stock from Bulog is quite abundant, thus Bulog must maintain its quality. It should not be allowed for the rice to spoil or even be disposed of.

This is in consideration of the fact that the rice stock is still greatly needed for food assistance and the SPHP program. On the other hand, the assistance rice and SPHP rice that are distributed must prioritize quality.

"Therefore, the rice in Bulog must indeed be maintained, reprocessed, and its quality controlled. The main principle is that the rice must reach the recipient community in good condition," he said.

Bapanas recorded that from January 2025 to September 29, 2025, Bulog has distributed 861,400 tons of government rice reserves to the public. This distribution was carried out through various programs and distribution channels.

Meanwhile, to stabilize the rising prices of feed corn that have triggered an increase in the price of broiler chicken, Bapanas has distributed 52,400 tons of SPHP corn. The target is micro, small, and medium-scale farmers.

The Director of Supply Stabilization and Food Prices at Bapanas, Maino Dwi Hartono, stated that in the last two months, the price of corn at the farmer level has experienced a significant increase. In Blitar, East Java, for instance, the price had reached Rp 7,000 per kg.

Therefore, Bapanas has assigned Bulog to distribute 52,400 tons of SPHP corn to 2,109 farmers across 16 provinces. This distribution is focused on micro, small, and medium farmers who have been designated or registered by the Ministry of Agriculture.

Bapanas has assigned Bulog to distribute 52,400 tons of SPHP corn to 2,109 livestock farmers in 16 provinces.

"We have also set the price for the SPHP corn. In the Bulog warehouse, the price is set at Rp 5,000 per kg, while at the farmer level, the maximum price is Rp 5,500 per kg," he said.

Based on data from Bapanas, the regions that received the highest allocation of SPHP corn are Kendal Regency in Central Java and Blitar Regency in East Java. Kendal received 7,060 tons and Blitar received 6,131 tons.

The government has also detailed the distribution of SPHP corn per recipient farmer. In Blitar, for example, micro farmers will receive 45 tons, small farmers 5,906 tons, and medium farmers 180 tons.