Behind the Collapse of the Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that was in place since January 19, 2025, has been de facto shattered after Israel launched massive airstrikes again at various points in the Gaza Strip since Saturday, March 15, 2025.

Israeli warplanes on Saturday, March 15, 2025, attacked targets in Beit Lahiya, Northern Gaza Strip, killing 9 Palestinians. On Sunday, March 16, 2025, Israel again attacked various targets in the Gaza Strip, killing 12 Palestinians.

However, the most massive Israeli attack occurred on Tuesday, March 18, 2025. Israeli military sources revealed that around 100 warplanes were involved in the massive new attack on the Gaza Strip on Tuesday.

The Palestinian Health Ministry reported that at least 439 Palestinians were killed and 528 others were injured as a result of the Israeli airstrikes. The death toll and injuries will continue to rise as the Israeli attacks continue. The new Israeli attacks are certainly inseparable from the full support of the US President Donald Trump's government for the Israeli attacks.

Israel and Hamas, through mediation from Egypt, Qatar and the US, in mid-January 2025 managed to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip in three stages. Each of the three stages lasted 42 days.

However, after the end of the first phase of the ceasefire on March 1, 2025, Israel refused to continue the second phase of the ceasefire. Israel, supported by the US, asked for an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire until the month of Ramadan, namely until March 30, 2025 and added the Jewish Passover day, namely until April 19, 2025.

During the extension of the first phase of the ceasefire, Israel, supported by the US, demanded the release of 50 percent of the 24 Israelis who are still alive and held by Hamas until now. Hamas initially rejected the extension of the first phase of the ceasefire and insisted that all remaining Israeli prisoners be released during the second phase of the ceasefire. The compensation requested by Hamas was that Israel must withdraw from the entire Gaza Strip and open access for humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.

Under the persuasion of Egypt and Qatar, Hamas finally agreed to take a middle path, namely releasing a US citizen prisoner and the bodies of four Israeli prisoners who died during the first phase of the ceasefire extension.

However, Israel and the US rejected the middle way option offered by Hamas. Israel remained adamant by giving two options, namely Hamas must release at least 50 percent of the remaining prisoners who are still alive or the war will start again.

Hamas also continues to reject Israel's demands because Israeli prisoners are Hamas's trump card in bargaining power in the second phase of ceasefire negotiations. The deadlock in negotiations over the release of the number of Israeli prisoners who must be released during the extension of the first phase of the ceasefire led Israel to decide to start another war in the Gaza Strip.

The deadlock in the negotiations happened to coincide with Israel's domestic political crisis situation that required starting another war in the Gaza Strip in an effort to resolve the political crisis. Immediately after the war broke out again in the Gaza Strip, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reappointed Itamar Ben Gvir, a hardline politician, as national security minister.

Netanyahu needs the Otzma Yehudit party (which has 6 seats in the Knesset) led by Ben Gvir in an effort to secure Knesset votes for the state budget bill that will be submitted to the Knesset in late March 2025.

Previously, Ben Gvir left Netanyahu's coalition in protest of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. In addition, the flare-up of the Gaza war could also overcome the impact of Netanyahu's controversial decision to fire Shin Bet (Israel's domestic intelligence agency) Chief Ronen Bar.

Netanyahu fired Bar because of his frequent differences of opinion regarding the Gaza war and it is also suspected that Shin Bet is investigating allegations that a number of Netanyahu's aides received illegal funds from Qatar known as Qatar Gate.

However, the issue of Bar's dismissal drew criticism from the opposition and the Israeli public because the issue of Bar's dismissal was very political and not motivated by professionalism.

On Wednesday, March 19, 2025, the Israeli people held a massive demonstration by closing the highway between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in protest of Ronen Bar's dismissal. So, Netanyahu rekindled the Gaza war so that the Israeli political elite and public could forget about the issue of Bar's dismissal.

In the regional context, the collapse of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is inseparable from the military escalation in the Red Sea with the flare-up of the US military conflict and the Al Houthi group in Yemen. A series of Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip coincided with a series of US attacks on various Al Houthi group targets in Yemen.

US President Donald Trump announced through Truth Social on Saturday, March 15, 2025, the start of US military operations against various targets of the Al Houthi group in Yemen on the pretext that the pro-Iran group threatens US and international security in the Red Sea.

Trump's announcement was in response to the threat by the Al Houthi group to launch attacks on Israeli targets and their supporting countries in the Red Sea. The threat by the Al Houthi group was in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip who were again blockaded by Israel by prohibiting humanitarian aid from entering the Gaza Strip since March 3, 2025.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday, March 16, 2025 revealed that the Al Houthi group had carried out 174 attacks on US ships and 164 attacks on cargo ships belonging to various countries in the Red Sea. Following Trump's announcement, US warplanes on Saturday, March 15, 2025 immediately attacked targets in the capital Sana'a, killing nine Yemenis.

US warplanes on Sunday, March 16, 2025, again attacked the city of Sana'a and Saada Province in Yemen, resulting in 11 deaths in Saada Province and 13 deaths in Sana'a city. The Al Houthi group responded by firing ballistic missiles at the Nevatim air base, Israel, on Tuesday, March 18, 2025. The Al Houthi group also deployed drones to attack the US aircraft carrier, Harry S Truman, in the Red Sea on Tuesday, March 18, 2025.

The military escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea between the US and the Al Houthi group could encourage Trump to give the green light to Netanyahu to wage another war on the Gaza Strip because Hamas and the Al Houthi group may now be seen as resistance movements that are inseparable from each other.