Plunge 9 Percent, IHSG Targeted to Remain at Level 6,000

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The Composite Stock Price Index, or IHSG, which reopened on Tuesday (8/4/2025) after the extended Eid holiday, immediately plummeted by 9 percent to the level of 5,912. The global impact of Trump's tariff policies remains a burden on the IHSG. However, analysts predict that the IHSG today will be resistant around the 6,000 level.

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), which opened at 09:00 AM WIB, plummeted by 598.56 points or 9.12 percent from the level of 6,510.62 to 5,912.06. Quoting the Ajaib application, the stocks that experienced the largest decline, approximately 15 percent, were shares of PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PT Adhi Karya Persero Tbk, PT Essa Industries Indonesia Tbk, and PT DCI Indonesia Tbk.

Shares of major banks were also not spared from price declines, such as PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, which fell by 12.94 percent, PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk, which dropped by 14.57 percent, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk, which decreased by 13.21 percent, PT Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk, which declined by 13.46 percent, and PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk, which fell by 12.39 percent.

Due to the 9 percent decline in the IHSG at the opening of the first trading session, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) immediately implemented a temporary trading halt for 30 minutes. The immediate trading halt was in effect even though the exchange authorities had relaxed the lowest percentage limit for temporary trading halts from 5 percent to 8 percent.

"Trading will resume at 09.30 JATS (Jakarta Automated Trading System) without any changes to the trading schedule. This action was taken because of the decline in the IHSG which reached 8 percent," said the official statement from the IDX.

After 30 minutes of being stopped, the JCI rose slightly to the level of 6,023 at 11:00 WIB so that the JCI correction was around 7 percent. This movement is in accordance with the analysis of the Phintraco Sekuritas Team which targets the support level or JCI decline target in the range of 5,600-5,800 and the increase target at 6,400-6,700.

Stocknow.id Capital Market Analyst, Hendra Wardana, in a written statement, added that the IHSG movement has strong support in the 5,800 area which is an important psychological and technical limit, while the upper level or closest resistance is at the 6,000 level.

"After a trading halt, panic usually subsides a little and market players start to be rational so that the potential for a technical rebound can occur," he said.

The positive movement of the IHSG, according to him, is also attributed to President Prabowo Subianto's plan to deliver a statement regarding Indonesia's position on Trump's tariff policy this Tuesday afternoon. This agenda could serve as a positive catalyst if conveyed firmly and in a manner that reassures the market.

Meanwhile, Hendra added, the decline in the IHSG was more influenced by external sentiment and the market's emotional reaction. For long-term investors, this is actually an important moment to observe opportunities for accumulation in stocks with strong fundamentals that have been excessively impacted.

"Meanwhile, for short-term traders, it is necessary to continue to monitor volatility and wait for technical confirmation before re-entering the market. Attention to the Indonesian government's fiscal and diplomatic policies in responding to global turmoil will be key to market direction in the next few days," he said.

The main factor triggering the massive stock sell-off by investors, according to Hendra, is still related to the announcement of new trade tariff policies by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, which increased tariffs on several products from developing countries, including Indonesia.

Although exports to the US account for only about 9.9 percent of Indonesia's total exports, Hendra believes the market is overreacting because this sentiment implies a resurgence of global trade tensions, concerns over a global economic slowdown, and disruptions to supply chains.

"The lack of a quick reaction from the Indonesian government before the market opened also caused market players to lose confidence, and this was exacerbated by technical factors such as margin calls and forced sells, especially in leading stocks that have been supporting the index," he said.

However, behind this pressure there are a number of opportunities and positive sides that are worth noting. The pressure of the trade war has caused world oil prices to drop by 21 percent, which actually benefits Indonesia as an oil and gas importer because it can save up to 4 billion US dollars in foreign exchange.

In addition, falling US bond yields have driven capital flows to developing countries, opening up opportunities for the Indonesian bond market to strengthen. The weakening US dollar has also provided room for stabilization for the rupiah exchange rate, which is currently around Rp16,800 per US dollar, after having exceeded Rp17,000 per US dollar.

Bank Mandiri Chief Economist, Andry Asmoro, in his statement, assessed that Trump's tariff policy worsened global uncertainty. This action risks slowing global growth through a decline in international trade volume and increased cost pressures in various sectors. "Market sentiment is likely to remain vulnerable in the short term, as retaliatory responses from major trading partner countries increase the risk of prolonged conflict," he said.

Indonesia, which is one of the countries affected by the imposition of tariffs on exports to the US, is at risk of suppressing national export performance, especially for manufactured products (textiles, footwear, and electronics) that have high exposure to the US market. "Pressure on exports can worsen the current account deficit and add pressure to the stability of the rupiah exchange rate," said Andry.

Overall, global uncertainty and rising risks are expected to drive volatility in domestic financial markets. Mandiri, Andry said, estimates the rupiah to move in the range of Rp16,610 per US dollar to Rp16,840 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year government bonds is in the range of 7.1 percent -7.3 percent in the short term.

Overseas stock exchanges are also still fluctuating. Stock market indices in Asia moved variously at the opening of trading this morning. The Hang Seng Index strengthened by 2.38 percent to 20,299, the Nikkei index strengthened by 6.54 percent to 33,174, while the Taiwan TAIEX Index weakened by 2.9 percent to 18,862.

The emergency conditions in the stock market have so far been mitigated by the IDX and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) by changing the trading halt rules and the minimum limit for stock price declines or lower auto rejection (ARB). This change was made with Regulation Number II-A concerning Equity Securities Trading and is further regulated in the Decree of the IDX Board of Directors Number Kep-00002/BEI/04-2025.

Policy adjustments related to the temporary suspension of securities trading are carried out when there is a very sharp decline in the IHSG in one trading day of more than 8 percent. This was changed from the previous initial limit of 5 percent. The temporary suspension of trading is carried out for 30 minutes.

If the JCI experiences a further decline of more than 15 percent, a 30-minute trading halt can be implemented again. This corrects the previous limit of 10 percent. Furthermore, the exchange has the right to freeze trading if the JCI declines by more than 20 percent, with the provision that it is carried out until the end of the trading session or more than one trading session after receiving approval or an order from the OJK.

Regarding the adjustment of the ARB percentage limit, it was adjusted to 15 percent from 35 percent for shares on the main board, then the same percentage for shares on the development board which was previously 25 percent, and the ARB changed to 15 percent from 20 percent for shares on the new economy board.

The adjustment of the ARB percentage limit is also applied to the effects in exchange-traded fund (ETF) products and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) for the entire price range.

BEI President Director Iman Rachman in a press conference at the BEI Main Hall, Jakarta, Tuesday, said that this policy was changed to respond to the emergency conditions in the global stock market in recent weeks. According to his records, stock exchanges and stock indexes in many countries have fallen by 5-11 percent since the last week of March 2025.

Then, Iman said, BEI conducted a mini survey to market players during the Lebaran holiday. "This adjustment was implemented to provide liquidity space for market players and investors to give them time to respond to information in the market," he said.

For the medium and long term, BEI also suggested three facilities that market players can utilize to mitigate the weakening of the exchange. First, diversify investment products on the exchange, including structured warrants, single stock futures, and gold ETFs.

"Second, we are also reviewing several liquidity instruments such as liquidity providers, we are also doing this. Frankly, we are looking at how the plan is in discussions with the OJK," he said.

Finally, Iman continued, the exchange also pays attention to existing products and initial public offerings or IPOs which will be enhanced with quality products and a large enough asset size.

"This year, we have the arrival of lighthouse companies, namely companies with a market cap of over Rp 3 trillion. The more companies of this type are good for investors who will have alternative investments. For example, when the market goes down, they can buy derivative products so that our market is more vibrant," he concluded.