US-Europe "Duel" Determines Ukraine's Fate

WASHINGTON, SUNDAY - The United States urged United Nations member states to support a "modest but historic" resolution proposal on the war in Ukraine. The US proposal differs from a draft resolution drafted by Ukraine and its European allies.

The Ukraine-Europe draft blames Russia for the invasion of Ukraine and commits to supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity. The 65-word US proposal does not criticize Russia at all. The Ukraine-Europe draft resolution is being negotiated for a vote in the UN General Assembly.

From the US proposal seen by the AFP news agency, Saturday (22/2/2025) local time or Sunday Indonesian time, the proposal calls for a "swift end to the conflict" without mentioning Ukraine's territorial integrity. The proposal also begins with the sentence "mourning the tragic loss of life during the Russia-Ukraine conflict" and continues with "reaffirming" the UN's purpose in maintaining international peace and security.

The US did not name Russia as the source of the conflict. The short resolution contrasts with previous texts adopted by the General Assembly with the support of former US President Joe Biden.

The resolution has sparked a clash between the US and Europe. The strength of the transatlantic alliance is now being questioned because of the U.S. President Donald Trump's change of heart towards Russia. After years of isolating Russia, the US has opened negotiations with Russia only because it wants the Ukraine-Russia conflict to end quickly.

European leaders were disappointed that their officials and those from Ukraine were not invited to participate in initial U.S.-Russian talks in Saudi Arabia this week.

The US resolution proposal will be submitted on Monday (24/2/2025) for a vote at the UN Security Council (UNSC). The General Assembly has become the most important UN body dealing with the Ukraine war because the UNSC, which is tasked with maintaining international peace and security, has been hampered by Russia's veto.

There is no veto power in the General Assembly, but its resolutions are not legally binding. Unlike the UNSC, General Assembly resolutions carry political weight, reflecting global views on the war.

If the 15-member UNSC adopts the US proposal, it would allow the US and Russia to argue that the General Assembly need not meet or vote on the Ukraine-Europe-drafted resolution. The UNSC is scheduled to meet on Ukraine on Monday afternoon local time.

However, the schedule could change depending on China's February presidency of the UNSC. A UNSC resolution requires at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the US, Russia, China, Britain or France as permanent members.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged U.N. member states Friday night to support a U.S. plan to chart a path to peace. Russian U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia welcomed the U.S. plan but warned it did not address the root causes of the conflict.

Separately, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday that no peace framework for the Ukrainian war can be decided without Ukraine. Mitsotakis said it was up to Ukraine to decide what was acceptable to it.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez also said that peace in Ukraine cannot be forced. A just and lasting peace must be with the consent of Ukraine and Europe. "Surrendering to the aggressor will not bring peace. On the contrary, it will be worse," he said.

Trump has portrayed Russia as the loser in the talks, raising concerns among Ukraine's allies that Trump could offer concessions to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump said it was not important for Zelenskyy to be involved in the U.S.-Russia talks.

"I had a very good conversation with Putin. I've never had a very good conversation with Ukraine. They don't have any cards," Trump said at the White House.

Trump is scheduled to meet Putin face-to-face in the next two weeks. The two will likely discuss not only the war in Ukraine, but also global issues.

In order to obtain Ukraine's mineral resources such as rare earth minerals (graphite, uranium, titanium, and lithium) and petroleum, Trump demanded compensation for the US aid that had been sent to Ukraine to support its efforts against Russia. The US-Ukraine mineral deal became a major sticking point in the increasingly tense relationship between the two countries.

Trump wants Ukraine to give U.S. companies access to its vast natural resources. “We’re going to get our money back because it’s not fair. We’ll see. I think we’re close to a deal,” Trump told delegates at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) near Washington on Saturday.

Hours earlier, Zelenskyy reportedly said he was “not ready” to sign the deal with the U.S. despite increasing U.S. pressure. Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, who met with Zelensky earlier this week, said Zelenskyy understood the importance of the deal.

However, Ukraine is said to need guarantees first. Ukraine wants any agreement signed with the US to include security guarantees.

Trump has demanded $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals in return for U.S. aid to Ukraine. Ukraine has rejected the price tag because it is far more than the amount of U.S. aid to Ukraine. The U.S. has given Ukraine about $60 billion in military aid since Russia invaded.

This is the largest aid among Ukraine's allies. Kiel, a German economic research institute, said that from 2022 to the end of 2024, the US provided a total of $119.8 billion in financial, humanitarian and military aid.

US negotiators have raised the possibility of cutting off Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system, after Zelenskyy rejected an initial proposal from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Starlink provides vital internet connectivity to Ukraine.

Musk sent thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine to replace communications services destroyed by Russia. Musk then restricted access at least once in 2022 as he became more critical of Ukraine's handling of the war.

Melinda Haring, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Starlink is critical to Ukraine’s drone operations, a key pillar of its military strategy. So losing Starlink would be a game changer.

Ukraine is now on a 1:1 parity with Russia in terms of drones and artillery shells. Ukraine has a wide range of drone capabilities, from naval drones and surveillance drones to long-range unmanned aerial vehicles. (REUTERS/AFP/AP)