Argentina Against the Burden of History

Unlike four years ago in Qatar, Argentina is not the favorite to win the championship at the 2026 World Cup. The defending champion arrives in North America with less than ideal preparations. History also does not favor them.

In the World Cup, the status of defending champion often feels more like a burden, even a curse, rather than an advantage. Throughout history, only Italy in 1938 and Brazil in 1962 have managed to retain the Jules Rimet trophy. However, both achievements were accomplished within their own confederation.

After 1962, the defending champions continued to fall. This syndrome afflicted great teams, such as Spain and France. Spain's golden era, which won the championship in 2010, for instance, was completely shattered in the group stage of the 2014 edition. Four years earlier, Italy failed to win a single match in the group stage after winning the 2006 edition.

The curse continued in 2018. Germany, which triumphed in 2014, returned home in shame after finishing last in the group stage in Russia. Meanwhile, France, which succeeded in Russia in 2018, failed to replicate its success after being defeated by Argentina in a fierce final match in Qatar four years ago.

The burden of expectations, an aging squad, and the loss of the hunger for titles are a combination of factors behind the phenomenon of the "defending champion syndrome." Aware of the heavy challenges, Argentine Coach Lionel Scaloni was reported to have considered resigning in November 2023. "This is not a farewell. However, I must reassess (the coaching position) because the targets are too high and difficult to continue," he stated at that time.

At the urging of several parties, Scaloni decided to stay. He attempts to surpass the achievements of his two predecessors, César Luis Menotti and Carlos Bilardo, who resigned after the "Tango" team failed to defend their championship title, specifically in 1982 and 1990.

However, Scaloni's determination cannot mask several issues in Argentina's preparations for the 2026 World Cup. He was disappointed with the attitude of some senior players during the training camp ahead of the match against Uruguay in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The Tango team subsequently lost 0-2 at home in that match.

Despite their defeat, Argentina managed to conclude the South American zone qualification as group champions. They accumulated 38 points from 18 matches, thanks to 12 wins and 2 draws. However, their dominance is not unrelated to the decline in quality of traditional rivals, such as Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay, in the region.

In the past year, Argentina has faced almost no worthy opponents outside the confederation. However, friendly matches against major teams are crucial for their preparation to compete in the World Cup. Geopolitical factors, namely the war in the Middle East, have also led to the cancellation of the most anticipated match, which was against the European champion, Spain, in the Finalissima 2026.

The inability of the Argentine Football Association (AFA) to find suitable opponents for friendly matches is closely related to the issues plaguing the organization. AFA is currently embroiled in a scandal involving allegations of corruption and money laundering linked to its leader, Claudio Tapia. This turmoil is believed to have led Scaloni to consider stepping down.

On the other hand, Scaloni is also troubled by the selection of 26 players to take to the 2026 World Cup. Several of his chosen players are currently facing fitness issues. Defender Christian Romero, Gonzalo Montiel, and Nahuel Molina are still recovering from injuries. The situation is further exacerbated by the injury of key goalkeeper, Emiliano Martinez.

The goalkeeper who became the hero of Argentina's victory in the penalty shootout against France in the 2022 final suffered a broken finger while defending his club, Aston Villa, in the 2026 Europa League final. Displaying heroism under such conditions, Martinez led Villa to victory with a 3-0 win over Freiburg. He made two crucial saves.

Argentina is in great need of Martinez, the goalkeeper who is also skilled at passing the ball, in America. He is like a talisman for the Tango team. Imagine, out of the seven finals he has reached in his career, both at the club and national team levels, Martinez has won all seven, including the Copa America in 2021 and 2024. No one can match that perfect record.

Fortunately, local media reported that he does not require hand surgery. He only needs to rest for 20 days. Therefore, Martinez is likely to be available for selection when Argentina begins Group J qualification against Algeria on June 16.

Scaloni still retains most of the players who became champions in Qatar. This includes their megastar, Lionel Messi (38). The former Barcelona striker is striving to make history as the first person to appear in six editions of the World Cup, starting from 2006. He is also recorded as the player who has participated the most in the World Cup, with a total of 26 matches.

The question is, to what extent will Scaloni optimize Messi's role in America? In 2022, he was the key figure behind Argentina's glory. Not only through goals, but his vision and maturity in playing also became an inspiration for the Tango team. However, Messi is now at the end of his brilliant career. Maintaining Messi's motivation and playing minutes in America presents a challenge.

Messi is indeed irreplaceable in the team's dressing room. However, his role on the pitch is starting to be filled by younger players, such as Nico Paz. Como's playmaker can operate in multiple areas of the opponent's final third, as Messi demonstrated in Qatar. The best midfielder in the Italian League in the 2025-2026 season contributed 12 goals and 6 assists for Como.

Unfortunately, Paz is currently suffering from an injury. In addition, the midfield of the Tango team no longer appears as strong as in Qatar, with the inconsistency of the star midfield duo, Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister, with their respective clubs. Another midfielder, Rodrigo De Paul, is also aging. The same goes for their central defenders, such as Nicolas Otamendi (38).

Argentina fans certainly want to see Messi return to the final in the "last dance" of the twilight star at the World Cup. However, their realistic target is the quarter-finals in the 2026 edition, which can be referred to as a generational transition for the Tango team.