Six Teams Could Reach the "Capolista," the Italian League's Toughest Competition in the World

The defeat of AS Roma against AC Milan with a score of 0-1 resulted in the top two teams in the Italian League remaining winless in the tenth week, this weekend. Napoli still holds the top position in the standings after being held to a goalless draw by Como, but Antonio Conte's team is only one point ahead of the three teams below them.

Inter Milan, AC Milan, and Roma are Napoli's closest rivals with 21 points. If Napoli fails to win their 11th match on Sunday (November 9, 2025), those three teams have a chance to overthrow the reigning champions, the capolista (top of the table). The three teams must win.

On the other hand, if one of the three teams suffers a defeat, they could fall to a lower position. The two teams in fifth and sixth place, occupied by Bologna and Juventus, both have 18 points.

The opportunity for changes in the standings in the 11th week is still very likely to occur. Milan and Napoli will face challenging away matches against Parma and Bologna. For Bologna, the match against Napoli is the best chance to assert themselves as a dark horse team disrupting the hegemony of traditional Italian champion teams.

Subsequently, Roma and Inter will host two challenging teams at home. Each of these teams will welcome Udinese and Lazio at their respective venues.

Meanwhile, another team, Juve, will face Torino in the derby della mole, an all-Turin clash. Two consecutive wins, followed by a new atmosphere under coach Luciano Spalletti, have restored the positive atmosphere for the "Old Lady" to at least compete for a place in the top four.

The intense competition in the Italian League is also confirmed by calculations by the Opta supercomputer used to simulate the season. The Italian League is the only one of Europe's top five leagues to not have a single team with a probability of winning above 50 percent.

As an illustration, as of November 3, 2025, Opta predicts Arsenal's chances of winning the Premier League are 71 percent, Bayern Munich is impossible for other teams in Germany to disturb with a 93.19 percent chance of winning, Real Madrid is the favorite to win the Spanish title with 69.11 percent, and Paris Saint-Germain is predicted to be difficult to disturb from its champion tradition thanks to a 91.33 percent chance of winning.

In the Italian League, Opta's favorite team to win the Scudetto is Inter Milan. Cristian Chivu's side has a 48.27 percent chance of becoming the Italian champions in May 2026.

Inter's scudetto probability percentage is followed by Napoli (19.04 percent), AC Milan (13.67 percent), Roma (10.29 percent), Juventus (3.84 percent), Bologna (2.33 percent), and Atalanta (1.48 percent).

A total of seven teams with at least a one percent chance of winning the league make Serie A the competition with the most open rivalry. In the English Premier League and Ligue 1, there are only five teams with similar probabilities, while the Bundesliga and La Liga each have only three and four teams predicted to compete for the championship.

The still-wide competition in Italy means these six teams can still dream of winning the Scudetto this season. Roma coach Gian Piero Gasperini wasn't too concerned about the loss to Milan. In fact, Milan defender Strahinja Pavlovic's lone goal condemned Roma to their first defeat and prevented them from joining Napoli at the top of the table.

"We played the way I wanted. Of course, there's regret that we didn't get any points, but on the other hand, it gives us confidence that we're on the right track," Gasperini told DAZN.

The biggest concern for Gasperini is actually the injury suffered by his star striker, Paulo Dybala. The Argentine player sustained a groin injury following a failed penalty execution in the 82nd minute.

"We have to wait for the examination results regarding how long he will be absent, certainly until the international match break. (Dybala's injury) This is our biggest loss tonight," said Gasperini.

Mike Maignan, the goalkeeper of AC Milan, is proud to have helped his team secure three important points against Roma. He saved a penalty from Dybala. Maignan's save marked the first time Dybala failed to convert a penalty since November 30, 2021, when he was still wearing the Juventus jersey.

Regarding his team's championship chances, Maignan believes it is still too early to discuss titles. According to him, Milan's main task is to face each match with the goal of pursuing three points.

"We have a good team, we're united, and we want to focus on one game at a time. We're not giving up on chasing the Scudetto because we want to win everything, but the season is still very early," Maignan said, as quoted by La Gazzetta dello Sport.

When five teams are showing positive performances, albeit still often inconsistent, Juve is the only team in the top six that has already undergone a coaching change. In fact, "La Vecchia Signora" is the first team in Serie A to have dismissed a coach in the 2025-2026 season.

Despite this, Spalletti has hinted that he doesn't want to come to Juve half-heartedly. Beyond just chasing a Champions League spot, Spalletti aims to become only the second manager to lead both Napoli and Juve—two teams from the north and south of Italy with the greatest rivalry—to the Scudetto. Antonio Conte has already achieved that feat.

"Everyone wants us to compete for the trophy, especially since we are Juventus. It is our obligation to reach our maximum potential and to dream of something extraordinary until it becomes mathematically impossible," said Spalletti.