IHSG Closes Lower at Level 5,996, Global Sentiment and Rupiah in Focus

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - The Composite Stock Price Index, or IHSG, in its first trading session after the long holiday on Tuesday (8/4/2025), closed down by 7.9 percent to a position of 5,996.14. The movement of the IHSG going forward will remain volatile due to global sentiments affecting the stability of the rupiah exchange rate and the behavior of foreign stock investors.

The weakening of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) aligns with stock prices across all sectors moving into the red zone. Shares of companies in the basic materials sector experienced the deepest decline of 10.54 percent, followed by the technology sector with a decrease of 10.23 percent, and the cyclical consumer sector with a drop of 8.82 percent.

Previously, at the opening of trading following the long Eid holiday on Tuesday morning, the IHSG immediately plummeted by 9.12 percent from the level of 6,510.62 to 5,912. The global impact of Trump's tariff policy remains a burden on the IHSG.

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) immediately responded by implementing a temporary trading halt for 30 minutes.

Head of Customer Literacy and Education PT Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia Oktavianus Audi, to Kompas, is of the view that the pressure that is still quite strong has pushed the JCI to stagnate in the negative zone and failed to stay above the psychological level of 6,000 at the close of trading. Foreign investors on Tuesday were recorded to have sold shares worth Rp 3.87 trillion.

On the one hand, the movement of the JCI is relatively stagnant due to policy changes by the IDX. The policy includes changes to the percentage limit for stock price declines or lower auto rejection (ARB) to 15 percent from the previous 35 percent. With this, the ARB in some stocks can only be a maximum of 15 percent.

"Meanwhile, we see that the market has not fully responded positively to the government's statement regarding US tariffs, due to panic selling which is still high," he said when contacted on Tuesday.

Audi continued, the pressure will continue in the short and medium term. "We estimate that the JCI on Wednesday (9/4/2025) tomorrow will still tend to be depressed although it will be more limited along with the continued potential for rupiah depreciation and capital outflow pressure (stock sales) by foreign investors," he said.

The pressure will decrease if there is intervention from Bank Indonesia to strengthen the rupiah exchange rate, government strategies and policy implementations that are market-friendly, relaxation of interest rate policies, as well as the release of resilient corporate performance in the stock exchange.

The analysts team at Phintraco Sekuritas predicts that the movement of the IHSG is not only still overshadowed by negative sentiment from the implementation of import tariffs by the administration of United States President Donald Trump. The market is also continuously observing the policy responses that will be taken by the government to maintain exchange rate stability while simultaneously strengthening the investment climate.

On Tuesday (8/4/2025), the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar remained in the weakening zone, reaching a level of IDR 16,860 at the close of trading this afternoon, although it slightly strengthened after briefly hitting a record of IDR 17,200 on Monday (7/4/2025).

Amidst the global economic turmoil, Indonesia's economic conditions are showing signs of improvement from before. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that inflation in March 2025 was 1.65 percent.

The figure shows an improvement after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) emerged from the deflationary trend that had occurred until February 2025, with a value of -0.48 percent.

The improvement was also influenced by the normalization effect after the end of the government's electricity tariff discount incentives and the momentum of fasting and Eid which encouraged public consumption. In addition, Indonesia's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is still in the expansionary zone, reflecting fairly solid manufacturing activity.

Taking into account the existing sentiment conditions, Phintraco Sekuritas estimates that the JCI will move in the long range of 5,800-6,400 on Wednesday (9/4/2025).

"It is hoped that an effective combination of fiscal and monetary strategies can again attract foreign funds to the Indonesian financial market," said the Phintraco Sekuritas Team.