Indonesia Vs Bahrain, from Winning Ratio to Surprise Drama in the Decisive Match

The match between Indonesia and Bahrain is akin to a do-or-die game for Indonesia. Securing a victory against Bahrain will keep Indonesia's chances alive for the 2026 World Cup stage after their defeat to Australia.

Referring to the match record between Indonesia and Bahrain, the Garuda national team has often provided fierce resistance. Of the last six meetings (1988-2024), the Indonesian national team was able to hold Bahrain to a draw three times and win once, namely at the 2007 Asian Cup. At that time, the Garuda Team managed to beat Bahrain at the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta with a score of 2-1.

Even so, Indonesia has also suffered three defeats against Bahrain. The biggest loss was experienced by Indonesia with a score of 10-0 when visiting Bahrain's home ground in the final match of the third round of the 2014 World Cup Qualifiers. Indonesia's crushing defeat at that time coincided with the prolonged internal conflict within PSSI and the emergence of league dualism.

As a result, the Indonesian national team played with a different team after most of the senior national team players appeared in the Indonesian Super League (ISL) which was running outside the control of PSSI (breakaway). FIFA and AFC stated that players who competed in the breakaway league were not allowed to strengthen the national team (Kompas, 12/23/2011).

In Transfermarkt's records and Kompas' archives, Bahrain's three wins over Indonesia have made Bahrain's win ratio against Indonesia reach 50 percent. This ratio is calculated from half of the wins that Bahrain has managed to achieve from its total of six appearances against Indonesia.

Bahrain's win ratio remains the same if the Indonesia vs. Bahrain matches are narrowed down to the last four games (2007-2024). Bahrain managed to win two matches out of the last four encounters against Indonesia. Meanwhile, Indonesia has only won once against Bahrain. The other match ended in a draw.

However, Bahrain's win ratio diminishes if the matches between the two teams are calculated since 1980. The two teams have played eight matches. Out of these eight matches, Indonesia has defeated Bahrain twice, while Bahrain has defeated Indonesia three times. The other three matches ended in a draw. Based on this record, Bahrain's win ratio against Indonesia in the last eight matches stands at 37.5 percent.

These three comparative victory ratios of Bahrain indicate that Bahrain's chances of defeating Indonesia are at a maximum ratio of 50 percent. This condition illustrates that Indonesia still has an opportunity to earn points from the match against Bahrain, although in terms of ratio, there are more chances of securing points through a draw.

Behind the opportunities possessed by Indonesia, the Garuda national team must remain vigilant against Bahrain's strength. This is because Bahrain recently succeeded in winning the 2024 Gulf Cup after defeating Oman in the final match on January 4, 2025. The Gulf Cup is a championship participated in by Arab countries in the Persian Gulf. In this event, Bahrain managed to overcome countries that are considered powerhouses in Asian football, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman.

Bahrain also holds a better FIFA world ranking than Indonesia. FIFA ranking data as of December 2024 shows that the Indonesian national team is currently ranked 127th, while Bahrain is positioned 81st in the world.

Bahrain will also be strengthened by a number of dangerous players who have proven to score goals against Indonesia. These players are striker Ismail Abdullatif and two midfielders, Mohammed Marhoon and Sayed Dhiya Saeed. Ismail Abdullatif and Sayed Dhiya have each scored four goals against Indonesia.

Meanwhile, Mohammed Marhoon has scored two goals against Indonesia. Marhoon also performed brilliantly in the 2024 Gulf Cup championship by scoring one goal in the final match. In addition, Bahrain is also a team that is known for often playing the psychology of its opponents through various game dramas or tricks such as wasting time, to pretending to fall.

Ahead of the match against Indonesia, this psychological warfare has even started from the press conference held by the Bahrain national team in Jakarta, Monday (3/24/2025). Bahrain coach Dragan Talajic questioned the strategy of the Indonesian national team which always presents players of new descent.

The Indonesia vs Bahrain match will take place on Tuesday (25/3/2025) at 20.45 WIB at the GBK Main Stadium in Jakarta. When facing Bahrain, Indonesia has a number of assets to win. First, Indonesia currently has more qualified individual players than Bahrain. This is reflected in the large market value of the Indonesian national team compared to Bahrain.

According to Transfermarkt records, the market value of the Indonesian national team after the joining of a number of new naturalized players such as Ole Romeny and Emil Audero Mulyadi reached IDR 634.86 billion. This market value is much higher than Bahrain's IDR 169.47 billion. Indonesia's market value is almost four times higher than Bahrain's.

The second capital that Indonesia also has is the full support of the national team supporters because this match will take place in Jakarta. Indonesia also has a spirit of revenge after failing to win at Bahrain's home in the first leg on October 10, 2024. At that time, the Indonesian national team failed to win because Bahrain's goal occurred in the 99th minute or injury time.

The goal was scored when the second half's extra time had been more than three minutes from the six-minute period. Previously, Indonesia had led with a score of 2-1. Additional goals from Mohammed Marhoon made both teams draw with a final score of 2-2.

The absence of several Bahraini pillars is also a note that needs to be utilized by Indonesia. When visiting Gelora Bung Karno, Bahrain is certain to be present without two main pillars in the back line, namely Amine Benaddi and Hamad Shamsan due to injury and card accumulation. This condition is certainly beneficial for Indonesia.

The Indonesian national team will also host Bahrain with an expensive and young squad. The average Indonesian player (25.5 years) is younger than the Bahraini national team (29.8 years). In the last meeting in the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers in Bahrain last year, the Indonesian national team was able to score two goals and hold Bahrain to a draw at home. In their last match, Bahrain was defeated by Japan with a score of 2-0 in the third round of the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers.

However, Indonesia must pay attention to Bahrain's surprise attack in the second half. The decline in physical condition and concentration of Indonesian players in the second half became an opportunity for Bahrain to score goals. Statistical records show that in the last five matches (July 2004 - October 2024). Bahrain managed to score 17 goals against Indonesia. A total of 10 goals were scored by Bahrain players in the second half.

Bahrain's surprise trend in the second half also occurred in the last five matches against four countries in the 2024 Gulf Cup championship. Throughout December 23, 2024 - January 4, 2025, Bahrain managed to score nine goals. Four of the winning goals occurred in the second half. This is the Bahrain surprise drama that Indonesia must be wary of. (LITBANG KOMPAS)