Italy's thorny road, Sweden's second life to the 2026 World Cup

ZURICH, THURSDAY — The Italian national team has an easy path to qualifying for the 2026 World Cup finals via the playoffs. They face teams far inferior in quality and lacking a strong tradition in the prestigious tournament. However, learning from their failures in the previous two playoffs, Italy should be wary.

The draw for the European qualifying playoffs was held in Zurich, Switzerland, on Thursday (November 20, 2025) evening WIB. The top-seeded Italian team, in Pot 1, was fortunate. They avoided World Cup regulars who could match their quality, such as Poland (Pot 2) and Sweden (Pot 4).

Italy will host Northern Ireland in the playoff semifinals on March 26 next year. If they win, they will face the winner of the match between Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina to qualify for the finals. Of the three teams in the same group as Italy, none are ranked in the world's top 30.

They have their own playing style and heavily rely on physical advantages. They can provide us with fierce resistance, but we can overcome that.

Northern Ireland, representatives from pot 4, is the team least familiar with the World Cup in that bracket. They last qualified for the finals during the Mexico 1986 edition. In contrast, Italy has appeared in seven editions since Mexico. Meanwhile, Liverpool defender Conor Bradley is the only prominent player from Northern Ireland.

"Northern Ireland is a team that we can defeat. They have their own style of play and heavily rely on physical advantages. They can provide us with fierce resistance, but we can handle that. Before focusing on Wales and Bosnia, let us concentrate on the semifinal match first," said Italy's Coach Gennaro Gattuso.

In another semifinal, Bosnia will visit the home of Wales. The two potential opponents of Italy are closer to the World Cup, especially Wales, which participated in the Qatar 2022 edition. The problem is that two icons of Wales' golden generation, Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, are no longer involved. Their quality is significantly different compared to before.

Bosnia qualified for the World Cup for the first and last time in the 2014 edition in Brazil. They briefly became the dark horse during the prime years of star striker Edin Dzeko. However, as Dzeko aged, the team's performance continued to decline. Furthermore, Bosnia is the team with the lowest world ranking in that bracket, ranked 71st.

However, Gattuso's team's superiority could backfire, as it did when they failed to qualify for the previous two playoffs. Italy was also seeded in the playoffs in Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022. However, they failed to qualify after losing to underdogs Sweden (2018) and North Macedonia (2022).

For Gianluigi Donnarumma and his teammates, the 2022 experience was the most bittersweet. They were expected to face a tough match against Portugal in the playoff final. Tragically, Italy lost first to North Macedonia, which has never qualified for a World Cup since its separation from Yugoslavia.

Northern Ireland has only defeated Italy once in 11 encounters, in 1958. Despite the unfavorable record, Northern Ireland's Coach Michael O’Neill is not concerned. "There will be immense pressure on the Italian side. They have clearly missed the last two World Cups. We have everything to gain in this situation," he stated.

Sweden concluded the group stage qualification in a very anticlimactic manner. The team, led by two star forwards from the English League, Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, failed to secure a single victory in six group matches. They had to accept the position of bottom of Group B with only two points and did not qualify directly.

Despite this, Sweden still has a second chance to qualify for the World Cup. They secured a playoff spot through the 2024-25 European Nations League. In the playoffs, Sweden will face host Ukraine in the semifinals. If they advance, they will face the winner of Poland versus Albania.

From pot 4, Sweden must navigate a very difficult path. They have to eliminate quality teams, such as Ukraine and Poland. Despite a poor trend in the group stage, Sweden holds a glimmer of hope. They are counting on the drastic changes promised by new coach Graham Potter, who replaced John Dahl Tomasson.

"We need to ensure that we are in a good position in March. We need to use our time wisely. Everyone wants to play for their country. Therefore, emotions are a part of the game that we must manage well," said Potter, who is inexperienced at the national team level.

One of the reasons for Sweden's anticlimax is the duet of Isak and Gyokeres, who did not contribute as expected. They lost their rhythm, unlike when they performed in the National League. All of this is closely related to the transfer of both players to new clubs last summer.

Isak (Liverpool) and Gyokeres (Arsenal) are still adapting to their respective teams. They have also been unable to translate their positive club performances to their national teams. With the playoffs still four months away, this could be a turning point for Sweden. Isak and Gyokeres have the opportunity to reinvent themselves. (AP/AFP)

Results of the playoff2026 World Cup qualifying draw for the European zone:

Line 1

Italy vs Northern Ireland

Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina*

Line 2

Ukraine vs Sweden*

Poland vs Albania

Line 3

Türkiye vs Romania

Slovakia vs Kosovo*

Line 4

Denmark vs North Macedonia

Czech Republic v Republic of Ireland*

*: The winner of the duel will be the host of the final