Italy's Impossible Road at San Siro

MILAN, SATURDAY — The Italian national team faces a significant chance of failing to qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup this month. The Azzurri's only realistic path to North America is to win their playoff match next March. However, the trauma of appearing in that decisive stage still haunts the four-time World Cup winner.

The final battle of Group I in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers will take place at the San Siro Stadium in Milan on Monday (17/11/2025) at 02:45 WIB. The team coached by Gennaro Gattuso will host the current group leader, Norway.

As the second match approaches in the qualification for the 23rd edition of the World Cup, Italy is still trailing three points behind Erling Haaland and his teammates. The defeat against Norway in Oslo on June 6 was the reason for Italy's challenging path to qualify directly for the world stage.

Although they managed to win six consecutive games with Gattuso to ignite the competition until the final group match, Gli Azzurri will find it difficult to dethrone Norway from the top position.

Italy not only needs a victory, but they must also defeat Norway with a definitive score of 9-0. Yes, Italy is required to win the battle at the iconic San Siro with a margin of nine goals.

The reason is that Norway, nicknamed "Landslaget," has a very large goal difference. They have scored 33 goals, 14 of which were contributed by Haaland, while only conceding four goals.

Along with the Manchester City striker, Norway is the most prolific team in the European pre-2026 World Cup group stage. Norway has a goal difference of +29.

Italy only has a goal difference of +12. In fact, Gattuso has led Italy to become the most productive team in World Cup qualifying since Arrigo Sacchi in the 1994 edition.

Italy has already scored 20 goals. Italy's best productivity record in World Cup qualifying is 22 goals during the pre-World Cup in 1994. In the 1994 World Cup, Italy finished as the runner-up after losing in a penalty shootout to Brazil in the United States.

In addition, San Siro is not very friendly for Italy. In the last two matches at the 1990 World Cup arena, Gli Azzurri suffered defeats against France (November 2024) and Germany (March 2025) in the 2024-2025 European National League.

Meanwhile, the final World Cup qualifying match at the San Siro left Italy traumatized. They drew 0-0 in the 2018 World Cup pre-playoff, thus failing to qualify for Russia 2018.

Gattuso does not want to overburden his players in pursuit of an absolute victory. In the history of international matches, a 9-0 victory has only been achieved by two teams, namely Hungary and Spain. Hungary silenced South Korea in 1954, while Spain defeated Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo) with the same score in 1974.

"We have to stay united. We have to do everything well, regardless of the final result," Gattuso said, as reported by La Gazzetta dello Sport on Saturday (11/15/2025).

Unlike the offensive formation of 4-2-4 used in the last six matches before the 2026 World Cup, Gattuso plans to restore Italy's balanced tactics with a 3-5-2 formation. The two wing strengths from Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Federico Dimarco will be Italy's hopes to disrupt Norway's defensive line.

The main obstacle for Gattuso lies in the trio of central defenders. Riccardo Calafiori, the defender from Arsenal, is still doubtful to play. The two key names relied upon are Alessandro Buongiorno and Alessandro Bastoni.

Norwegian coach Stale Solbakken is determined not to return empty-handed from San Siro. Norway has never won on Italian soil, with a record of four losses and two draws when playing in the country that resembles a boot.

"We have factor X in our attacking play. We feel we can always score goals. As a team, we also play very collectively in defense. This is our opportunity to finish the qualification perfectly," said Solbakken as reported by the FIFA website.

Solbakken could end Landslaget's wait to appear in the World Cup since France 1998. At that time, he was still a player.

Italy is very realistic about qualifying for the 2026 World Cup through the playoffs. However, they have a poor record in that crucial round. They failed to qualify for the last two World Cups, losing to Sweden in 2018 and North Macedonia in 2022.

The three strong contenders Italy will face in the playoff semifinals in March 2026 are Sweden, North Macedonia, or Wales. These three teams have the potential to face Italy based on their current FIFA rankings.

Italy's other potential opponents include Romania, Northern Ireland, Moldova, and San Marino, who are considering their place in the last edition of the European Nations League. The playoff semifinals and final will be played as a single match.

Gattuso assured that his team is ready to face all scenarios leading to the 2026 World Cup. They will not be intimidated if they meet Sweden or North Macedonia again.

"If I fail to lead the team to qualification, I will leave Italy. I'm not the most experienced (coach), but I have the ambition to help this team," said Gattuso, who has 73 caps for the Azzurri.

Meanwhile, Croatia has become the third team from Europe to secure a spot in the 2026 World Cup. The 3-1 victory over the Faroe Islands early Saturday morning confirmed Croatia's position at the top of Group L. Luka Modric and his teammates follow England and France.

Two teams have already secured their place in the playoffs after securing second place in their groups: Albania (Group K) and the Czech Republic (Group L).