Don't Be Surprised, Arsenal Are Favored Over Real Madrid

The rare duel between Arsenal and Real Madrid will take place once again after their first and last meeting in 2006. Together, they have amassed a total of 15 Champions League trophies. Madrid, "The King of Europe," holds 15 titles, while Arsenal has none. Despite being vastly outmatched in terms of achievements, Arsenal is surprisingly favored in the upcoming quarterfinal match.

Opta Analyst slightly favors “The Cannon” in its latest supercomputer predictions on Monday (7/4/2025). Arsenal is favored to advance to the semifinals, eliminating Madrid, with a chance of 50.2 percent. Madrid’s chance is slightly smaller at 49.8 percent.

The predictions were generated from 10,000 simulations. They utilized supporting data based on the previous and current performance of the teams recorded in the Opta Power Rankings. The probability of winning or losing, derived from betting markets that are typically the most objective, was also incorporated into the formula of the prediction model.

At first glance, the prediction seems to have been made by an Arsenal fan. How could Kylian Mbappe and his teammates, with their illustrious history and strong culture in Europe, as well as a host of world-class players, not be favored? However, the fact is, Arsenal indeed has a greater potential to win due to their style of play.

In the world of boxing, orthodox boxers often struggle against left-handed opponents. By analogy, Madrid is that orthodox boxer. They have a weakness that happens to be Arsenal's strength. At the same time, Madrid's greatest advantage is likely something the opposing team can overcome.

The potential disaster for Madrid began to take shape when they lost to Valencia 1-2 on Saturday night (5/4/2025) WIB. The two goals that led to the defeat of Carlo Ancelotti's team came from headers by the opposing players, one of which resulted from a corner kick. As is well known, aerial duels and set pieces are Arsenal's greatest strengths.

Arsenal was once referred to as the reincarnation of the modest team Stoke City. During the era of coach Tony Pulis (2006-2013), Stoke relied almost exclusively on goals from set pieces. This could be categorized as mockery, but it could also be seen as recognition. "The Gunners" were excessively dominant in set-piece schemes, particularly corner kicks.

Mikel Arteta's side have scored 11 goals from corners this season. In the highly physical Premier League, no team has been more productive from corners than Arsenal. According to SB Nation, Madrid have conceded 10 goals from corners this season.

Arsenal's corner kick strategy always troubles opposing teams. They crowd a specific area of the penalty box, making it difficult for the opposing goalkeeper to move. This strategy is supported by tall and strong players, including William Saliba (192 centimeters), Gabriel Magalhaes (190 cm), and Mikel Merino (189 cm).

Madrid's strengths are known throughout the world. Their attack line is so special with big names, such as Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, and Jude Bellingham. The problem is, Arsenal is known to be tough in defense. Arsenal has only conceded three goals in eight Champions League games or the fewest after Inter Milan.

Madrid often struggles when facing teams with a tight defensive structure. In the second leg of the last 16 against Atletico, for example. "The Whites" were only able to record six shots in normal time, and one of them came from a penalty. Meanwhile, Madrid failed to score until the penalty shootout.

Arteta's tactical approach will greatly influence the outcome of the upcoming meeting. The first match will take place at Arsenal's home ground, Emirates Stadium, on Wednesday (9/4/2024) at 02.00 WIB. Madrid, as hinted by Ancelotti after versus Valencia, will play more passively and wait for the opportunity to counterattack.

Arsenal need to find a capital advantage before visiting in the second match. However, Bukayo Saka and his colleagues must not be provoked. If they are too offensive and forget the defensive structure, they have the potential to be punished by the visiting team. Arteta needs to find a strategy with a balance in attack and defense.

The next “X” factor is the hole left by Gabriel. As is known, Arsenal’s two strengths in defense and corner kicks are closely related to Gabriel. He is the best duet of defender William Saliba. The Brazilian national team player has also scored five goals, the majority of which came from dead ball schemes.

Gabriel will be unavailable for the two games against Madrid. He is out for the rest of the season with a thigh injury. His replacement is still a big question mark for Arteta. Several names, such as Jakub Kiwior and Ben White, could fill the position, but they are almost certainly not better than Gabriel.

However, regardless of predictions and playing styles, there is one thing that can change everything. That is the mystery of Madrid's "European DNA". This factor is not visible on paper, but can be the difference on the field. Madrid has proven it time and again, no matter how many victims they have.