If Iran Cancels Their Appearance, Is There a Chance for Indonesia to Replace Them at the 2026 World Cup?

The coalition's attacks by the United States and Israel on several areas in Iran have the potential to affect the participation of the Iranian national football team in the 2026 World Cup. The threat to Iran's participation is not merely about the disrupted preparations of "Team Melli," but also an indication of the US intention to block Iran's presence in North America this summer.

Iran—participating for the seventh time in the World Cup—is grouped in Group G of the 2026 World Cup alongside New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt. One of Asia's representatives will begin its competition on June 16 at 08:00 WIB against New Zealand.

Iran's first two matches in the 2026 World Cup will take place at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Los Angeles, USA. Iran's final match in the group stage will be held at Lumen Field, Seattle, USA.

Certainly, there is no guarantee from the US Government to issue visas to Iranian players and coaching staff for the 2026 World Cup. Although FIFA assures that all participating players and officials will receive visas to enter US territory, the fate of the Iranian squad truly lies in the hands of the US.

For example, the President of the Football Federation of Iran (FFIRI) Mehdi Taj was unable to attend the draw for the group stage of the 2026 World Cup in December 2025 due to visa issues. A similar situation was experienced by several officials of the FFIRI.

Taj stated that Iran has a significant chance of not participating in the 2026 World Cup due to the attacks that occurred on Saturday (28/2/2026). This was conveyed by Taj in a statement on national television in Iran in Tehran, Sunday (1/3/2026).

"With what has happened today and the attacks from the United States, it seems we will not be heading to the World Cup. It is the world sports officials who must decide (the fate of Iran)," said Taj.

If there had been no pressure to withdraw from FIFA, Iran would likely struggle to remain in the 2026 World Cup. A similar situation was experienced by Iran at the 2026 Futsal Asian Cup in Jakarta last January.

Amid the chaos and tumultuous domestic conditions, the Iranian futsal squad coached by Vahid Shamsaee still arrived in Jakarta. In the last two press conferences before and after the final match, Shamsaee revealed the less-than-ideal situation of his team.

"If we were allowed, we would prefer to be in our country with our families. We are experiencing a difficult situation, so our presence (at the Futsal Asian Cup) is a manifestation of our respect for Asian futsal," said Shamsaee after the final match on February 7.

The situation has made the potential for Iran to voluntarily withdraw from the 2026 World Cup the last option. The likelihood of Iran's absence from this year's global football event is largely due to visa or entry permit issues related to the United States.

In the history of the World Cup since 1930, there has only been one team that withdrew after securing qualification for the main stage due to a war situation. This occurred with Austria in the 1938 edition in France.

As one of the European representatives inhabited by the best team in history known as the "Wunderteam," Austria had to withdraw due to the Nazi annexation on March 12, 1938. Austria's independence and authority were lost after being taken over by the Nazis.

At the end of March 1938, the Austrian Football Federation at that time sent a telegram to FIFA stating, "We regret to inform you that we are withdrawing from the World Cup. The Austrian Football Federation no longer exists."

Although the draw has not yet taken place, FIFA has decided not to replace Austria in the tournament in France. The third edition of the World Cup will only feature 15 teams out of the 16 participants that were planned.

However, if Iran's name is eliminated as one of the 48 participants in the 2026 World Cup, Group G will certainly undergo adjustments. Considering the competition and commercial aspects, FIFA will not allow Group G to consist of only three teams.

As badly affected as the UAE and Iraq are by the war in the region, Indonesia is not yet on the waiting list.

This situation will force FIFA to seek a replacement for Iran. The potential substitute for the Melli team is likely to come from the representatives of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).

The highest-ranked team in the 2026 World Cup qualification for the Asian zone will be a strong candidate to replace Iran. Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are the most potential representatives from Asia to fill Iran's slot. This refers to their performance in the fourth round of the 2026 World Cup qualification.

Iraq and the UAE met in the fifth round for a place in the interconfederation playoffs. Iraq won 3-2 on aggregate in the November 2025 clash.

Iraq will still compete in the interconfederation playoffs next March. If Iraq advances to the 2026 World Cup via the playoffs, the UAE has a strong chance of replacing Iran.

So, what about Indonesia's chances of replacing Iran? The opportunity is very slim, if not nearly nonexistent. Because, as bad as the UAE and Iraq are affected by the war in the region, Indonesia has not even made it to the waiting list.

Below Iraq and the UAE, there is still Oman, which performed better in the fourth round thanks to a collection of one point in Group A. Without wishing ill upon the Middle Eastern teams, Indonesia's only chance to replace Iran is if war affects those three teams, namely Iraq, the UAE, and Oman.

The uncertain security situation may cause the three countries to think twice about participating in the 2026 World Cup. Moreover, Oman and the UAE are neighbors of Iran and have already felt the repercussions of Iran's missile retaliation against US military centers in the region and Israel.

Regardless of the existing regulations, the process of replacing participants must also go through FIFA's considerations. If a replacement is necessary, the decision regarding the substitute team is entirely at FIFA's prerogative.

Once again, the chances of the "Garuda" squad reaching the 2026 World Cup seem to require a miracle, akin to a "windfall" from the sky. However, should we hope to glean wisdom amidst the loss of lives in another part of the world?