Why is Real Madrid's Progress Like a Roller Coaster?

What is the main reason for Real Madrid's inconsistency this season?

The Real Madrid squad may be filled with stars in almost every position, but when it comes to scoring goals, "Los Blancos" heavily rely on Kylian Mbappe. When the French forward is absent due to injury or other reasons, Real's progress becomes hindered.

Early last week, doctors in France confirmed the diagnosis that Mbappe has a sprained left knee and will undergo conservative rehabilitation, meaning he will not have surgery. Although he will not be operated on, the recovery process for the injury he has been experiencing since December 2025 will not be brief.

The uncertainty regarding when Mbappe will return to the green field casts doubt on Real's chances of pursuing the La Liga title. Doubts about Real intensified after "Los Blancos" lost in the match against Getafe.

Without Mbappe, Real struggled to score despite having many clear chances in front of goal. Lacking an effective goal-scoring machine, Real ultimately lost 0-1.

Throughout this season, Mbappe has consistently "carried" Real, scoring 23 goals in 23 appearances, making him the top scorer in La Liga to date. Mbappe's skill in scoring goals is unmatched by any of the Real players. Vinicius Junior, who is Mbappe's partner, has only scored nine goals so far.

Can interim manager Alvaro Arbeola improve Real Madrid's performance?

The defeat of Real Madrid 0-1 against Getafe in the 26th week of La Liga at the Bernabeu Stadium on Tuesday (3/3/2026) revealed a bitter reality that must be accepted by the management and supporters of "Los Blancos." The change of coach from Xabi Alonso to Alvaro Arbeloa did not result in improved performance in the domestic competition.

For Real, this was their second consecutive defeat after falling 1-2 at home to Osasuna last week. For the first time this season, Los Blancos have gone scoreless in two consecutive matches in La Liga.

The consecutive defeats occurred during the Arbeloa era. Although they achieved five consecutive victories in the league and managed to displace Barcelona at the top of the standings in week 24, Real experienced a significant decline in performance at the end of February.

The number of defeats that Real has experienced in seven league matches under Arbeloa is equivalent to 19 games managed by Alonso in the first half of this season. Under Alonso, Real achieved 14 victories, 3 draws, and 2 defeats.

When viewed from the average points, Alonso helped Real achieve 2.4 points per game in La Liga. This record decreased to 2.1 points per match after the head coach position at Real was given to Arbeloa.

What are Real Madrid's latest steps to end the series of defeats?

Real Madrid has finally ended their streak of two consecutive defeats in La Liga by defeating Celta Vigo, 2-1, on Saturday (7/3/2026) WIB, at the Abanca Balaidos Stadium. The acquisition of three points is, in fact, not enough to cover the performance of "Los Blancos," which has yet to improve.

The two goals scored by Real came from the first and last shots on target in the match. Aurelien Tchouameni took a precise shot from outside the penalty area in the 11th minute. He completed a short corner scheme initiated by Trent Alexander-Arnold and Arda Guler.

When hopes of victory were nearly extinguished, Federico Valverde—wearing the captain's armband—fired a powerful shot that found the back of the net against Celta. The goal was fortunate as the ball was deflected by Celta's defender, Marcos Alonso, changing its direction and leaving Celta's goalkeeper, Ionut Radu, unable to react. The goal was scored in the 90+4 minute.

Compared to Real, Celta is actually more superior in creating opportunities. One of the best chances was held by veteran striker Iago Aspas in the 87th minute when his shot hit the post of Real's goal.

Celta has a better attacking quality with a record of 1.05 expected goals (xG) from eight shots. Meanwhile, Real, which took 14 shots, only accumulated a threat quality equivalent to 0.87 xG.

Real took to the field from the kickoff without a pure striker. Arbeloa positioned Brahim Diaz as a partner to Vinicius in the front line. The only pure striker remaining, Gonzalo Garcia, was only introduced in the second half. Meanwhile, Kylian Mbappe is still suffering from an injury.

The lack of options in the attacking line prompted Arbeloa to instruct his players to be bolder in taking shots from outside the penalty area. Three accurate shots, including two goals, resulted from this long-range shooting tactic. This was in contrast to the four shots on target towards Celta that were created inside Real's penalty area.

When will Real Madrid have the best chance to chase the La Liga title?

The defeat experienced by Barcelona at the Montilivi Stadium in Girona, early Tuesday (17/2/2026), created momentum for Real Madrid to propel their team towards the championship. For the first time in the last eight weeks, Madrid topped the standings with a two-point lead over Barcelona in second place.

The 1-2 defeat to the host Girona caused the defending champion to fail in maintaining the top position in the standings. This loss also marked the second blow for Barcelona, which had just suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat to Atletico Madrid in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinals, Friday (13/2/2026).

When Barca stumbled, Madrid demonstrated its consistency in La Liga. On Sunday (15/2/2026), Madrid won 4-1 against Real Sociedad. This victory marked the eighth win since mid-December 2025.

Madrid continues to lurk behind Barcelona and is currently gaining momentum to lead the standings. The consistent performances of Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior are key for Madrid to consistently achieve victories in the domestic league.

How is Real Madrid doing in the Champions League?

Real Madrid's cycle leading up to the knockout phase of the 2026 UEFA Champions League has consistently revolved around Benfica. Real's automatic qualification to the Round of 16 was briefly jeopardized due to Benfica's dramatic victory in the final match of the group stage. Real's champion mentality prevented Benfica from replicating a similar miracle.

In the round of 16 playoff match, Real Madrid turned around Benfica's fate, which was not destined to advance to the knockout stage from the start. The decisive match at the Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid, on Thursday (2/26/2026) early morning WIB, was finally won by Real Madrid 2-1. Real also won 3-1 on aggregate. Thus, "Los Blancos" who had previously been separated temporarily finally managed to return to the embrace of the round of 16.

As a resilient team, it was not easy for Real to conquer Benfica. Even without the presence of Coach Jose Mourinho on the sidelines due to a card suspension, Benfica was still able to challenge Real, who played in front of tens of thousands of their supporters.

With the victory over Benfica, Real advances to the round of 16 in the Champions League. Real will face Manchester City again in the quarter-finals.