Public Confidence and Doubt in the Indonesian National Team

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The struggle of the Indonesian national team to realize their dream of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup has been the main focus of the public over the past two weeks. From September 24 to October 7, 2025, the Garuda squad has emerged as the center of public attention.

Indonesia will compete against the host countries Saudi Arabia and Iraq for a ticket to the 2026 World Cup. The Garuda squad will face Saudi Arabia on Thursday (9/10/2025) in the early hours of WIB and will play against Iraq three days later.

According to the media monitoring agency, Binokular, ahead of the decisive match in the fourth round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Jay Idzes and his teammates are at the center of a narrative that reflects a dualism of public emotions: between confidence and doubt.

Using media monitoring tools, Binokular traced the flow of information produced by the mass media and public conversations on social media. During the period from September 24 to October 7, 2025, this research mapped the news highlights and social media buzz related to the preparations leading up to the crucial match.

During the monitoring period, the distribution of news coverage showed a massive volume, breaking records in the context of pre-match reporting. A total of 12,159 articles have been published by various media channels (both online, print, and electronic), a testament to the public's thirst for Indonesia's historic achievements.

Pre-match coverage of Indonesia versus Saudi Arabia was dominated by positive sentiment (70.1 percent), 27.1 percent negative sentiment, and 2.7 percent neutral sentiment. The negative sentiment was amplified by coverage of the controversy involving FIFA and AFC, which rejected PSSI's protests regarding the selection of referees.

There are three main issues that have been the focus of media coverage during this period: first, Indonesia's chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. This relates to the release of the football analysis agencies Football Meets Data and Footy Rankings, which predict that Indonesia's chances of qualifying are only around 5-7 percent, and 20 percent for group runner-up. Indonesia, they believe, will finish bottom of Group B.

The second most popular issue in the mass media highlights the optimism of Maarten Paes, who stated that advancing to the fourth round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers would be very significant for the Garuda team. This statement is not merely a promise, but rather an acknowledgment that their advancement is a reflection of the evolution of national football.

The third positive focus was on coach Patrick Kluivert. The news highlighted Kluivert's strategic choices against Saudi Arabia.

"The positive narratives above, especially those related to coach Patrick's strategy, provide tactical assurance to the public that the fight on the field will be carried out with calculation and courage," said Nicko Mardiansyah, Manager of News Big Data Analytics Binoculars, in a release received by Kompas, Wednesday (8/10/2025).

The Social Media Manager of Big Data Analytics Binokular, Danu Setio Wihananto, stated that Binokular recorded 94,322 conversations on social media leading up to the match between Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. The discussions among netizens predominantly took place on the YouTube platform, followed by TikTok and Instagram.

The peak of the discussions occurred on October 4, 2025, reaching 12,779 conversations. This was partly due to posts about the Indonesian national team's training in Saudi Arabia and the continuous flow of support from netizens.

Despite the predominance of positive and neutral sentiment, Danu revealed that there were 375 conversations tinged with pessimism from netizens. "This relatively small number of conversations should not be underestimated because it generates extraordinary potential reach, reaching 5,172,844, with a total engagement of 7,762," Danu said.

Netizens' doubts focused on two fundamental concerns: the absence of the defensive stalwart due to Emil Audero's injury and the doubtful fitness of Maarten Paes. Both players play vital roles in goal. For supporters, their absences pose a threat to the defensive solidity against the deadly attacks of Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This issue generated 915 conversations with 562,469 engagements.

Another issue fueling netizens' doubts was the non-technical narrative that could potentially disrupt the team's focus on FIFA and AFC's rejection of the PSSI's protest regarding referee appointments. This issue was discussed 665 times and garnered 65,904 engagements.

It is known that the appointment of the Kuwaiti referee, Ahmad al-Ali, as the match leader for Indonesia against Saudi Arabia has received criticism from PSSI, as well as from netizens. "The referee's origin from the Middle East is the main reason for the emergence of doubts. Additionally, during the matches officiated by this referee, Indonesia felt disadvantaged on several occasions, leading to Ahmad al-Ali being regarded as a controversial referee," said Danu.

Another dominant doubt relates to the FIFA rankings, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq ranked significantly higher than Indonesia. Netizens are realistic about the fact that the opponents have better rankings. Saudi Arabia is in 59th place, Iraq is in 58th place, while Indonesia is in 119th place.

For netizens, rankings serve as a barometer of strength on paper, and this comparison raises doubts about whether the Garuda squad can overcome the perceived quality gap. Commenting on the findings, Vice President of Operations at Binokular Big Data Analytics, Ridho Marpaung, emphasized that optimism and doubt are natural in the eyes of the public. Therefore, the Garuda squad requires support and unity from their supporters off the field.

"The match of the Indonesian national team against Saudi Arabia later will be one of the opportunities to carve history in entering the 2026 World Cup. Therefore, we invite all Indonesian citizens and their supporters to unite in supporting the Indonesian national team, both before, during, and after the match," said Ridho. (*)