Conservatives Win Election, Germany Doesn't Want Europe to Rely on US

BERLIN, MONDAY - Germany's conservative party won the federal general election on Sunday (23/2/2025) local time. The conservative leader and new chancellor, Friedrich Merz (69), called for European unity and for the region's defense to no longer rely on the United States.

According to Deutsche Welle as of Monday (24/2/2025) at 09.57 WIB, the conservative alliance consisting of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) parties received the most votes, namely 28.6 percent. Second place was won by the right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), which received 20.8 percent of the vote.

In a statement after his victory, Merz called for European unity and criticized the US. He said Washington had interfered excessively during Germany's campaign season, such as through billionaire Elon Musk's tweets supporting the AfD. The US move was similar to Russian interference.

"So, we are under enormous pressure from both sides so my top priority now is to achieve unity in Europe. It is possible to create unity in Europe," Merz said in a panel discussion with other leaders.

Merz also urged the formation of a new governing coalition. The US, under President Donald Trump, has the potential to push for rapid and disruptive change. “The world is not waiting for us,” Merz said, adding that Europe must improve its defense capabilities.

The comments came after Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin about resolving the Ukraine-Russia war without including Ukraine and Europe. Trump also voiced doubts about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

"After Donald Trump's statements last week, it is clear that the vast majority of Americans do not care about Europe. My absolute priority is to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can truly achieve independence from the US (in terms of defense)," Merz said in a post-election TV debate.

Merz is a figure considered the antithesis of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was conservative and led Germany for 16 years. With certain conditions, he supports equipping Ukraine's war efforts with long-range Taurus missiles, a step avoided by the Scholz administration, and views the core of Europe as anchored in NATO.

"I am very curious to see what will happen between now and the NATO summit at the end of June. Will we still be talking about NATO in its current form, or will we need to build independent European defense capabilities much more quickly," said Merz.

Meanwhile, outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) achieved a record low of 16.4 percent. The election result was the final blow for Scholz after his coalition with the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) broke up over the budget in November 2024.

Germany's election turnout was 83 percent, the highest since before reunification in 1990. Male voters tended to lean right, while female voters showed stronger support for left-wing parties.

Even if he wins, the inexperienced Merz will face many challenges regarding coalitions. Forming a coalition in a divided parliament could take months. Merz has promised to complete the coalition before Easter, mid-April 2025.

It is not yet clear whether Merz will need one or two partners to form a majority. The fate of smaller parties is unclear, which could skew parliamentary calculations.

A three-way coalition would likely be far more difficult to manage, hampering Germany’s clear leadership. Learning from previous experience, the three-party coalition led by Olaf Scholz also collapsed.

“A three-party coalition risks chaos and stagnation, unless all parties involved realise that this is the last chance to bring about change and prevent the AfD from becoming stronger,” said Carsten Brzeski, Head of Global Macro for ING Research.

Brzeski continued, as long as the new government does not bring significant changes, foreign investment will also be held back. As a result, Germany's economic prospects could also weaken.

So far, the CDU/CSU has said it will not work with the AfD. To build a majority, Merz may approach the SPD, even without Scholz, or approach the Greens, which have 12 percent of the vote.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) finally won 5 percent of the vote, which meets the parliamentary threshold. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) only won 4.3 percent of the vote. If the CDU/CSU chooses BSW, Merz will need two coalition partners. The problem is that the alliance will be ideologically diverse.

Thus, Germany will be temporarily “paralyzed” and the European leadership will be vacant until Easter. In fact, the domestic and regional situation is threatened considering that German society is divided over migration, the European economy is in decline, and European security is in limbo because of the Ukraine-Russia war. Scholz can act as a temporary interim.

Considering that AfD is an extreme right-wing party attempting to obscure the history of the Nazis and the Holocaust, other parties in Germany have committed to blocking AfD from gaining power. For now, AfD, which had previously offered to partner with CDU/CSU, will remain in opposition in parliament.

The AfD is the strongest party in eastern Germany. In yesterday's election, the party recorded a number of victories in the western states. The surprise victory was driven by public concerns about immigration and security after a series of deadly attacks blamed on asylum seekers.

In December 2024, a car plowed into a Christmas market crowd, killing six people and injuring hundreds more. Then there was a stabbing attack targeting children at a kindergarten in January 2025 and a knife attack at Berlin's Holocaust memorial in February 2025.

With 20.8 percent of the vote, the AfD sees yesterday's election result as a start. "Our hands remain open to form a government. Next time we will be the first," AfD leader Alice Weidel told supporters.

Merz said the new government must be brave enough to address the AfD's concerns about migration and economic recovery, or the far-right party could win in the next round.

“The stakes couldn’t be higher. Germany’s mainstream parties have consistently failed to convince voters to reject the far-right, and this election could be their last chance to turn things around,” said political analyst and author Michael Broening.

The democratic forces must find solutions to the country's problems, Broening added. "If the ruling parties in Germany fail this time, they may not be the ruling parties for long," he said. (AFP/Reuters)