Manchester City's Prime Horse

There is a formula that consistently works in Pep Guardiola's brilliant career. A season after failing to secure the domestic league title, the manager has always been able to bring home the league trophy the following season. This formula seemed unlikely to apply to Manchester City this season, until the momentum finally shifted.

Guardiola can smile freely again. He cheerfully greeted the away supporters who came to the Nottingham Forest headquarters, City Ground Stadium, on Saturday (27/12/2025). This moment occurred after City snatched a 2-1 victory over Forest and rose to the top of the temporary standings.

Former England international Joe Cole believes Guardiola's mood is different compared to last season. "If you look at last season, he didn't seem happy. He's happier now, less stressed. That's noticeable, and it's quite bad for Arsenal," he said on TNT Sports.

No one knows Guardiola's true feelings except for himself. However, the truth of Cole's statement can be inquired from one of the camera operators during the match between City and Newcastle United about a month ago. The operator briefly became a victim of Guardiola's outpouring of negative emotions.

To be honest, there is more energy when we win games.

Is Guardiola happier? Perhaps so. However, it depends on the performance and results of City on the field. It is unlikely that the manager could be as cheerful after a loss to Newcastle. His happiness is closely tied to the positive trend of Erling Haaland and his teammates over the past month.

City has recorded six consecutive victories in the English Premier League since losing at home to Newcastle. The seven-point gap from the championship rival, Arsenal, has now narrowed to two points. They have officially returned to the trophy hunt. "To be honest, there is a greater energy when we win matches," said Guardiola.

City has found a balance, especially in the absence of their key midfielder Rodri. The victory at Forest's home ground is one such evidence. In last season and the beginning of this season, they have struggled significantly against teams employing a "bus parking" strategy and quick transitions like Forest.

The issue of defensive structure that once became the biggest concern for City seems to be fading. They limited Forest's threat, which could only create two accurate shots. The distance between City players was closer when facing counterattacks. The use of a formation with many midfielders, 4-3-2-1, had an impact.

Improvements on the defensive side are clearly evident in the results of the last four matches. City has conceded only 1 goal while managing to score 11 goals. This defensive record is like night and day compared to the beginning of the season. They conceded 16 goals in the first 14 league matches.

The stability of City is closely linked to the formation of four solid parallel defenders. The manager relies on Matheus Nunes, Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, and Nico O’Reilly. City can comfortably use the same formation as they are not troubled by a storm of injuries like last season.

According to Guardiola, the tactical refresh has also contributed to the improvement of City's performance. He is supported by a new coaching staff this season, including Pepjin Lijnders, Kolo Toure, and James French. "Results do help, but the methodology is also important," said Guardiola, who feels more like an assistant to Lijnders.

In the attacking line, City is starting to resemble a football team composed of eleven players. They are no longer solely reliant on Haaland. In three of the last six league victories for City, Haaland did not contribute any goals, including in the match against Forest.

Their attacking midfielders, Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki, alternately added options in the opponent's penalty area. The distribution of goals has begun to occur. Unlike at the beginning of the season, Haaland had scored 11 out of 17 total goals for City in the first eight league matches.

Cherki, the midfielder recently acquired from Olympique Lyon last summer, is the greatest hope in the new era of City. After becoming the hero of victory with 1 goal and 1 assist at City Ground, he increasingly appears to be the true successor to Kevin De Bruyne.

Cherki's creativity shines brightly in his debut season. He has already produced seven assists, the most in the league so far. The French national team player has even managed to achieve an average of 0.98 assists per 90 minutes. This ratio is the highest in the history of the Premier League.

The most important thing is that Cherki understands his role very well as the main creator. "I always want to score goals, but that is not my role. Erling is here for that! I want to provide good passes to my teammates, and I am very proud of that," he stated.

From defense, attack, to coaching staff, City is significantly better this season. All of this adds to the confidence that Guardiola will reclaim the league title by the end of the season. He has won 12 league titles out of 16 seasons in his career. The manager has never failed to win the league two consecutive seasons.

The main competitors of City (40 points) are Arsenal (42) and Aston Villa (39). Arsenal is starting to show signs of instability due to a prolonged injury crisis. Villa is on fire with 11 consecutive wins across all competitions, but the consistency of that mid-table team is always questioned in the long term.

As a result, among the three contenders in this championship race, City is currently the strongest horse to reach the finish line in the leading position. Meanwhile, Arsenal and Villa will clash in the middle of this week. City could take advantage of that. (AP/REUTERS)