Minus 0.21 Percent Cut for Rice Self-Sufficiency

In 2025, Indonesia will begin to pursue the target of rice self-sufficiency. The footing is quite heavy, especially when reflecting on 2024. In that year, the food crop subsector actually grew by -0.21 percent year-on-year.

On February 5, 2025, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released that Indonesia's economy in 2025 grew by 5.03 percent year-on-year. The main engine of national economic growth, namely household consumption, only grew by 4.94 percent.

Amid the slowdown of the main economic engine, agriculture, which is the sector that absorbs the most labor, is growing slowly. In 2024, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector only grew by 0.67 percent annually. The food crop subsector even grew by -0.21 percent.

The growth of the food crops subsector in 2023 and 2024 was -3.86 percent and -0.21 percent respectively.

The performance of the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors is lower compared to 2023, which had a growth of 1.31 percent. However, for the food crop subsector, the performance slightly improved from 2023, which had a growth of -3.86 percent.

Behind the contraction of the food crop subsector last year, the government's efforts to improve its growth performance are reflected. This is indicated by the improvement in the quarterly growth figures of the subsector.

In the first quarter of 2024, the food crop subsector grew by -24.72 percent year-on-year. Then in the second, third, and fourth quarters, the food crop subsector grew by 12.51 percent, 4.5 percent, and 9.27 percent respectively.

Why can this happen? The still strong impact of El Nino from January to May 2024 has caused rice production throughout 2024 to decline. BPS recorded that national rice production in 2024 reached 30.62 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons compared to 2023, which was 31.1 million tons.

The decline in rice production was not too drastic thanks to the efforts of the Ministry of Agriculture (Kementan) in launching the rice planting acceleration movement and pump irrigation. These measures were at least able to mitigate the reduction in the area of rice fields that were not cultivated due to water shortages.

On the other hand, labor absorption in the agricultural sector is still growing the highest compared to other sectors. Based on BPS data, the working population in August 2024 was 144.64 million people, up 4.79 million people from August 2023.

In a year, the sector was able to increase the absorption of labor to reach 1.31 million people with a contribution of 28.12 percent. This contribution is higher than the contribution of the trade and manufacturing sectors which were 18.89 percent and 13.38 percent respectively.

There are several factors that trigger an increase in the workforce in the agricultural sector. First, the increase in the price of several agricultural commodities at the farmer level. For example, dry harvested grain (GKP). In June 2024, the National Food Agency (Bapanas) increased the government purchase price (HPP) of GKP for farmers from IDR 5,000 per kilogram (kg) to IDR 6,000 per kg.

Head of Bapanas Arief Prasetyo Adi, Thursday (6/2/2025), said that Bapanas has initiated the implementation of HPP GKP for farmers since 2023. In 2023, Bapanas has increased HPP GKP for farmers from IDR 4,200 per kg to IDR 5,000 per kg.

The policy will continue in 2024 and 2025 by increasing the GKP HPP to IDR 6,000 per kg and IDR 6,500 per kg respectively. Through this policy, the average price of GKP and the farmer exchange rate (NTP) nationally have improved.

"Even since 2022, NTP has never been below the threshold of 100 and tends to increase. Most recently, NTP in January 2025 increased to 123.66 compared to the end of 2024 which was 122.78. Likewise, NTPP increased from 109.9 in December 2024 to 109.06 in January 2025," he said.

Second, the increase in agricultural labor is also inseparable from the shift of manufacturing industry workers to agriculture. The rampant layoffs (PHK) in a number of industrial lines are the trigger. Some workers who were laid off and had not found replacement jobs returned to the village and worked in the agricultural sector.

The Ministry of Manpower noted that in January-December 2024, 77,965 workers were laid off. The most layoffs occurred in DKI Jakarta, reaching 17,085 people or 21.91 percent. Then followed by Central Java with 13,130 people, Banten 13,042 people, West Java 10,661 people, and East Java 5,327 people.

The 2024 condition spurred the government to be more aggressive in realizing food self-sufficiency, especially rice. Moreover, in the 2025-2029 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) it has been outlined that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the agricultural sector targeted in 2025 is 2.2 percent. The target must also increase to 3.46 percent in 2029.

It is not surprising that the government is trying to accelerate the rice self-sufficiency target from 2028 to 2027. The government is also committed to not importing rice throughout 2025. The government even formed a Food Self-Sufficiency Task Force to pursue rice production. Its mission is to oversee the achievement of annual rice self-sufficiency targets.

In the 2025-2029 RPJMN, it has been outlined that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the agricultural sector targeted in 2025 is 2.2 percent. The target must also increase to 3.46 percent in 2029.

Head of Planning Section of the Directorate General of Food Crops of the Ministry of Agriculture Ugi Sugiharto said that in 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture is targeting national rice production of 32 million tons. To that end, the area of rice planting is increased from 17 million hectares of regular rice planting area to 20 million hectares.

"The additional 3 million hectares of planting area will be carried out by optimizing agricultural land and creating new rice fields," he said at the national coordination meeting of the Food Self-Sufficiency Task Force which was held in a hybrid manner in Jakarta, Wednesday (5/2/2025).

Referring to the results of the BPS Rice Area Sample Framework (KSA), the rice harvest area in January-April 2025 is estimated to reach 4.41 million hectares. The potential rice harvest area is higher than the realization of the same period in 2023 and 2024, which were 4.21 million hectares and 3.57 million hectares, respectively.

According to Ugi, the Food Self-Sufficiency Task Force will monitor and oversee the target of rice planting area and rice production this year to be achieved. The task force, which also involves the TNI, is equipped with a digital application-based monitoring and reporting system.

They are required to report daily rice planting realizations covering paddy fields, dryland rice fields, land optimization in 2024 and 2025, and new rice field creation. They are also required to report problems or obstacles in the field, including floods, droughts, pests, distribution of subsidized fertilizers, irrigation conditions, and seed availability.

"Monitoring and reporting up to the village level will be carried out by village guidance officers (babinsa) and agricultural extension workers (PPL). We have also shared ways to anticipate and handle floods and droughts, as well as eradicate pests and diseases," he said.

In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture has also formed 1,755 food brigades with a budget of around Rp 30 trillion. Each brigade consists of 15 millennial farmers who will manage 200 hectares of land. They will work with local farmers and be accompanied by Ministry of Agriculture employees, instructors, extension workers, lecturers, and teachers.

The Food Brigade will plant rice in swampy and unused land in several regions in Indonesia. The land is spread across several regions in the provinces of Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau, South Sumatra, Lampung, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, and South Papua. The income of each millennial farmer is estimated at IDR 10 million per month.

Minister of Agriculture Andi Amran Sulaiman stated that the Food Brigade is a place to create jobs in the agricultural sector, including developing millennial farmers. They can work on agricultural land by applying appropriate technology.

The 2023 BPS Agricultural Census categorizes millennial farmers as farmers aged 19-39 who are adaptive to digital technology and agricultural innovation. In 2023, there will be 6.18 million millennial farmers or 21.93 percent of the 28.19 million farmers in Indonesia.

East Java is the province with the largest number of millennial farmers, namely 971,102 people. Then followed by Central Java and West Java with the number of millennial farmers of 625,807 people and 543,044 people respectively.