Food Growth Leap

After experiencing negative growth in 2024, the food crop subsector surged in the first quarter of 2025. The increase in rice and corn production, the addition of labor, and the rise in farmers' income became the main supports.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday (5/5/2025) that Indonesia's economy grew by 4.87 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors grew by 10.52 percent, making them the highest source of economic growth by sector, contributing 1.11 percent.

The food crop subsector, which includes commodities such as rice and corn, grew the most at 42.62 percent. Meanwhile, the plantation subsector, including palm oil, grew by 3.14 percent.

In the first quarter of 2025, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector grew by 10.52 percent, while the food crops subsector grew by 42.62 percent.

The Head of BPS, Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, stated that the impressive performance of the agricultural sector and the food crop subsector in the first quarter of 2025 is in stark contrast to the performance in the first quarter of 2024. At that time, the agricultural sector and the food crop subsector contracted by -3.54 percent and -24.72 percent, respectively.

"The positive performance was driven by an increase in rice and corn production, which rose by 51.45 percent and 39.02 percent, respectively, during the first quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter of 2024," he stated at a hybrid press conference held in Jakarta.

BPS recorded that the production of rice equivalent to milled dry grain (GKG) from January to March 2025 amounted to 14.97 million tons. This volume of GKG is higher compared to January to March 2024, which was 9.89 million tons.

The production of dry shelled corn with a moisture content of 14 percent from January to March 2025 is 4.73 million tons. This volume of corn is higher compared to January to March 2024, which was 3.8 million tons.

The agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors can also serve as a buffer against the surge in the number of unemployed individuals in Indonesia. According to data from BPS, the number of unemployed in Indonesia increased by approximately 83,000 people over the past year, reaching 7.28 million as of February 2025.

According to Amalia, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors absorb the most labor compared to the 16 other business sectors. In February 2025, these sectors absorbed 28.54 percent of the total national workforce, which reached 145.77 million people.

Throughout the period from February 2024 to February 2025, the number of workers in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors increased by 890,000 individuals. In fact, during the period from August 2024 to February 2025, the increase in workers in the agriculture sector reached 850,000 individuals.

Minister of Agriculture Andi Amran Sulaiman believes that the surge in the performance of the agricultural sector, particularly the food crop subsector, is remarkable. This reflects the hard work of farmers supported by the government's Food Self-Sufficiency program.

"The success of the rice and corn harvest in the first quarter of 2025 truly serves as a momentum to drive a significant leap in the food sector," said Amran in Jakarta, Monday (5/5/2025).

In 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture targets national rice production to reach 32 million tons. To achieve this, the area for rice cultivation will be increased from 17 million hectares of regular rice planting to 20 million hectares.

The additional planting area of 3 million hectares is achieved through the optimization of agricultural land and the creation of new rice fields. The Ministry of Agriculture also encourages the planting of dryland rice among plantation crops.

In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture has established 1,755 Food Brigades with a budget of approximately Rp 30 trillion. Each brigade consists of 15 millennial farmers who will collaborate with local farmers to manage an area of 200 hectares. The managed land includes swamp land and idle land in several regions of Indonesia.

With various efforts, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Indonesia's rice production in 2025 will reach 34.6 million tons. This figure represents a significant increase compared to the rice production in 2024, which was 30.62 million tons.

In 2025, Indonesia's potential rice production is the highest among ASEAN countries. The potential rice production of Vietnam is 26.5 million tons, Thailand 20.1 million tons, the Philippines 12 million tons, Cambodia 7.37 million tons, Laos 1.81 million tons, and Malaysia 1.75 million tons.

In the first quarter of 2025, the welfare of farmers, as indicated by the farmer's exchange rate (NTP), is also well maintained. This is in line with the government's policy to increase the price of harvested dry grain (GKP) and the purchase of GKP of various qualities during the rice harvest season in March-April 2025.

BPS recorded that the NTP in January-March 2025 was 123.62, higher than the NTP in January-March 2024, which was 119.5. However, based on the same comparison period, the NTP for Food Crops actually decreased from 116.91 to 109.19.

This occurred because the price of GKP at the farmer level from January to March 2024 is very high. This is due to the national rice production decreasing as a result of the El Nino phenomenon that took place from around June 2023 to May 2024.

The Head of the National Food Agency, Arief Prasetyo Adi, stated on Tuesday (6/5/2025) that the improvement in the agricultural sector's performance is also inseparable from the government's success in maintaining the GKP price at the farmer level. On January 15, 2025, the government raised the GKP price at the farmer level from Rp 6,000 per kg to Rp 6,500 per kg.

"President Prabowo Subianto even issued a government purchase price policy (HPP) for GKP at the farmer level without fractionation and any quality (without special quality standards) of at least IDR 6,500 per kg. The policy does not only apply to Perum Bulog, but also to all rice milling business actors," he said.

The policy is outlined in Presidential Instruction (Inpres) Number 6 of 2025 concerning the Procurement and Management of Domestic Rice and the Distribution of Government Rice Reserves (CBP). Specifically regarding CBP, the President has also mandated a target for domestic rice procurement in 2025 of 3 million tons.

In addition, the government is targeting rice self-sufficiency to be achieved by 2027. The government is also committed to not importing rice by 2025.

All these achievements indicate that national food self-sufficiency, especially rice, is truly within sight.

From early January to May 4, 2025, the stock of CBP and commercial rice at Bulog has reached 3.5 million tons. Of this amount, 1.8 million tons are sourced from domestic rice paddy/rice absorption.

Amran claims that the government's rice stock is the highest in the last 56 years, or since the establishment of Bulog in 1969. In fact, this volume exceeds the rice stock from January to May 1984, which amounted to 3.03 million tons.

In 1984, President Suharto successfully led Indonesia to achieve rice self-sufficiency. This success earned Indonesia an award from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1985.

“At that time, the population of Indonesia was still 169 million people. About four decades later, with a population nearly doubling to around 280 million people, Indonesia successfully achieved a CBP of 3.5 million tons,” said Amran.

Amran is optimistic that the government's rice stock can reach 4 million tons within the next 15-20 days. He also emphasized that all these achievements indicate that national food self-sufficiency, particularly in rice, is truly within reach.

Based on the results of the Rice Area Sample Framework (KSA) in May 2025, BPS stated that domestic rice production is expected to increase by 11.17 percent from 29.3 million tons in January-June 2024 to 32.57 million tons in 2025. The estimated production figures for the first semester of 2025 have already surpassed the actual rice production of 30.62 million tons in 2024.

Euphoria may be acceptable. However, it is important to remember that the sustainability of rice production must be maintained. This is considering that Indonesia will enter a period of scarcity starting in June 2025, and the potential increase in rice production occurring in the first semester of 2025 is also due to normal weather conditions.

In addition, the government's plan to export rice needs to be calculated and considered carefully. This consideration should not merely be to provide market access for Bulog, which has an abundant stock of rice.

That consideration also needs to include the mitigation of potential weather anomalies and maintaining the purchasing power of the lower class. In addition, Indonesia still requires rice stocks for early 2026.