Can Iran's Nuclear Capabilities Recover? (I)

The attacks by the United States and Israel have destroyed three major nuclear sites in Iran: Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion starting Saturday (13/6/2025), while the United States initiated the final operation, Midnight Hammer, on Sunday (22/6/2025).

The total attacks by the two countries on Iran involved more than three hundred combat and support aircraft, including 7 B-2 Spirit strategic bombers and 7 other aircraft as decoys. The 12-day assault ultimately concluded with a ceasefire that was "imposed" by the United States after the use of its largest bomb: the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator/MOP.

Unlike the public's assumption that the US attack to "assist" Israel in destroying Iran's nuclear bunker in Fordow was carried out suddenly or out of necessity, the fact is that this had been planned by the US for a much longer time.

Theavionist page (6/26/2025) stated that the attack had been planned since 2009 when the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under the coordination of the Pentagon first studied Iranian defense sites. This means that 15 years of planning, intelligence gathering, weapons development, and training were carried out by the Pentagon before the attack yesterday.

Defense Minister Pete Hegseth and Air Force General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated during a press conference at the Pentagon on June 26, 2025, that since 2009, the U.S. Department of Defense has been analyzing satellite imagery and intelligence, and has realized that no U.S. weapon can penetrate the underground nuclear site at Fordow.

The United States subsequently developed the giant bunker-busting bomb GBU-57 MOP, specifically designed to destroy Iran's Fordow underground facility, marking the first actual use of the bomb in warfare.

Fordow is 80-90 meters below the surface and reinforced with concrete of unknown thickness. No wonder the US needs to ensure the effectiveness of the attack with 12 GBU-57 MOP bombs dropped at two points in Fordow, carried by seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers.

The capability of the bunker-busting bomb is to penetrate 60 meters of soil or 8 meters of reinforced concrete. The GBU-57 was first launched to breach reinforced concrete structures, creating a hole, after which five other bombs entered the bunker through that hole and detonated sequentially to deepen and enlarge the internal destruction of the target.

The photos presented from the satellite imagery by Maxar show a consistent combination of holes in two positions targeted by the GBU-57 group. One large hole in the center and two large openings that are part of the ventilation system of the Fordow site.

Unlike Fordow, at the Natanz and Isfahan sites, the United States used 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles to destroy the buildings housing centrifuges and uranium processing. These facilities had previously been targeted by Israeli missiles to clear the air defense systems.

With all these facts, it seems that Fordow has indeed suffered severe damage. Although its underground structure may remain relatively intact, its centrifuges are unlikely to withstand the pressure from the explosion.

A B-2 pilot involved in the Midnight Hammer operation described the explosion at Fordow as "the brightest explosion I have ever seen. The explosion truly looked like daytime." Maxar satellite imagery released after the attack showed extensive blackened areas on the ground surface.

Nevertheless, for Iran, the Iranian nuclear program does not seem to have been completely eliminated by its enemies. Following the U.S. bomber aircraft attack, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed that the underground nuclear bunker at Fordow remains intact. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the attack did not "achieve anything significant" in disrupting Iran's nuclear program.

Khamenei's statement may have been aimed more at maintaining domestic morale to prevent it from being shaken. However, leaked evaluation results of the bombing from US intelligence, which were sent to US media, indicate that the Fordow site has not been completely destroyed as desired.

According to the initial assessment from the Pentagon Defense Intelligence Agency, the core components at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan remain intact. Furthermore, AFP reported that the bunker-busting bombs dropped were only able to block access to the underground facilities, while the uranium storage buildings remained undamaged.

The initial assessment of US intelligence that was leaked to several media outlets last month stated that the attack failed to destroy the key components of Iran's nuclear program and only delayed its work by a few months.

This condition may occur as, over time, Iran continues to develop new methods to strengthen the bunkers of its nuclear sites to withstand bombing.

US President Donald Trump and the Pentagon were furious with the case because it contradicted Trump's proud declarations shortly after the bombing. "The fake news CNN, along with the failed New York Times, have joined forces in an attempt to diminish one of the most successful military attacks in history," Trump wrote on the media platform Truth Social.

The Pentagon has finally announced that the United States military strike against Iran has successfully delayed the country's nuclear program by at least one to two years. Department of Defense spokesperson Sean Parnell stated that three Iranian nuclear facilities that were targeted have been destroyed, in line with Trump's statements.

Regardless of the claims made by President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei, which have opposing substances, Iran's second-largest nuclear enrichment facility—yet the most strategic, Fordow—factually has a depth of more than 80-90 meters beneath the peak of a rocky mountain, and the reinforced concrete makes it resistant to conventional air attacks.

With that strategic design, there remains a possibility that the US bunker-busting bomb GBU-57 MOP could indeed penetrate up to 90 meters deep into the mountain and breach several meters of protective concrete. However, whether the explosion's effects can truly destroy all critical structures and their contents remains difficult to ascertain.

The GBU-57 MOP bunker buster bomb has a warhead weighing 2.5 tons, along with a delay fuse and a steel penetrator designed to destroy structures without needing to directly hit the target. This is due to the shockwave generated by the explosion, which is equivalent to a small earthquake that can collapse the joints of a building's supporting structure.

Nevertheless, surface evaluations indicate that the rock mountain housing Fordow has been accurately penetrated by GBU-57 MOP at several strategic points such as ventilation shafts and site entrances. This means there was a tremendous explosion inside. However, to ascertain the level of destruction factually, close-range ground observations are certainly required.

Several media reports indicate that prior to the US attack on the Fordow nuclear facility, the Iranian military moved approximately 400 kg of uranium that had been enriched to 60 percent. This amount is significant, especially if enriched to a high level, as it has the potential to be sufficient for one or more nuclear warheads.

This also complicates efforts to completely eliminate Iran's nuclear program, as the material could be reinstalled at new facilities or used for enrichment in secret. This incident demonstrates the resilience of Iran's nuclear program and the difficulty of dismantling it, similar to what was previously done with Iraq under Saddam Hussein.

Enriched uranium (U-235) at 60 percent does not yet meet the requirements to be directly made into a nuclear warhead. However, the process of enriching from 60 percent to 90 percent is significantly easier and faster than at lower levels.

A level of 60 percent far exceeds the level required for civilian use (typically 3-5 percent for nuclear reactors or 20 percent for medical device reactors), thus it is certain that Iran's goal with uranium enrichment is indeed to create a nuclear bomb.

With a 60 percent enrichment, most of the technical work to create a bomb is already completed, and only small additional steps are needed to reach 90 percent. Therefore, this level is often seen as a "strategic threshold" that shortens the time required to produce a nuclear bomb if a country wishes to do so.

Although 60 percent uranium is not ideal for making a dirty bomb or a bomb mixed with conventional and radioactive materials, it can still be used to make a dirty bomb. (LITBANG KOMPAS) To be continued.