The Most Crucial Period in the Gaza Strip

The future of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip remains uncertain. Hamas and Israel are still at odds regarding the continuation process of the ceasefire from the first phase to the second phase.

The first phase of the ceasefire lasted for 42 days, from January 19, 2025, to March 1, 2025. That phase ended on Saturday, March 1, 2025.

However, Israel wishes to extend the implementation of the first phase of the ceasefire until the entirety of Ramadan this year or the end of March 2025, as well as the Jewish Passover, or further until April 19, 2025. The purpose of Israel extending the first phase of the ceasefire is to secure the release of all remaining Israeli hostages still held captive by Hamas.

Israel wants all Israeli prisoners to be free in the first phase of the ceasefire.

Israel claims that the proposal to extend the first phase of the ceasefire until April 19, 2025, was a suggestion from President Donald Trump's Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff.

However, Hamas continues to strongly reject Israel's desire to extend the duration of the first phase of the ceasefire and also refuses to release the remaining Israeli hostages before entering the second phase of the ceasefire, which is also set to last for 42 days.

For Hamas, the remaining Israeli civilian hostages being held serve as a strategic bargaining chip in negotiations to pressure Israel to withdraw from the entire Gaza Strip during the second phase of the ceasefire.

Hamas believes that if all hostages are released in the extended first phase, Israel might betray the ceasefire agreement by refusing to withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

Hamas also believes that if all hostages are released in the first extended phase, Israel could betray the ceasefire agreement by refusing to withdraw from the Gaza Strip. Hamas wants the release of the remaining Israeli hostages to be carried out simultaneously with Israel's withdrawal from the entire Gaza Strip.

Hamas's trust in Israel's commitment to the ceasefire agreement has also declined. Talks to discuss the second phase of the ceasefire, which were supposed to start on the 16th day of the implementation of the first phase of the ceasefire, were never held until the end of the first phase of the ceasefire, March 1, 2025.

Israel has always tried to avoid holding the second phase of ceasefire negotiations which were supposed to start on the 16th day.

Israel remains adamant that Hamas must release all remaining hostages in the first phase of the ceasefire, which is extended until April 19, 2025. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said Tuesday (3/4/2025) that Israel is willing to enter the second phase of the ceasefire if Hamas is willing to release the remaining Israeli hostages.

Since Sunday, March 3, 2025, Israel has again banned the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip as a form of pressure on Hamas to accept the extension of the first phase of the ceasefire and release all remaining hostages, both living and dead.

Due to the attitude of Hamas and Israel, who both hold firmly to their respective positions, the ceasefire process has stalled at this time. Israel even threatened that if in the next 10 days Hamas still refuses to extend the first phase of the ceasefire and release all remaining Israeli prisoners, the Gaza war could start again.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's spokesman, Omer Dostri, told Israeli radio that Israel was giving Hamas a few days to agree to extend the first phase of the ceasefire.

So, this week and the coming week are the most crucial time regarding the Gaza Strip issue. All the worst possibilities can happen, including the re-emergence of the Gaza war, if Hamas and Israel persist in their respective positions.

Of course, at this time a third party is needed to break the deadlock on the Gaza Strip issue. The third party is the US, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The biggest challenge today is no longer the Gaza Strip reconstruction project and who is in power in the Gaza Strip, but rather whether Israel is willing to withdraw from the entire Gaza Strip.

The current deadlock on the Gaza Strip issue makes the results of the Arab League Summit in Cairo, Egypt, March 4, 2025, less realistic. As is known, the Arab League Summit in Cairo emphasized the attitude of strongly rejecting the relocation of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Egypt and Jordan or other countries, as well as the launch of the Gaza Strip reconstruction project without having to move its residents.

The Gaza Strip reconstruction project certainly cannot be implemented or remain only on paper without the success of the first and second phases of the ceasefire, namely the success of the complete exchange of hostages and prisoners and Israel's withdrawal from the entire Gaza Strip.

The biggest challenge today is no longer the Gaza Strip reconstruction project and who is in power in the Gaza Strip, but rather whether Israel is willing to withdraw from the entire Gaza Strip.

Israel is still entrenched in several strategic points in the Gaza Strip, especially in the Philadelphia corridor. This is a corridor about 14 kilometers long from east to west that separates Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

Egypt has repeatedly called on Israel to withdraw from the Philadelphia corridor. The Philadelphia corridor issue is one of the factors that has strained Egypt-Israel relations at the moment.

So, there are still many thorns that become gravel for the success of the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. The thorns can at any time thwart the ceasefire agreement.

Musthafa Abd Rahman, journalist for Kompas1991-2022