Imagining Europe Without the United States

The maneuvers of United States President Donald Trump have prompted European countries to take their defense and security more seriously. Defense budgets and expenditures are increasing.

Since his inauguration, Trump has openly highlighted the differences between the U.S. and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other alliances. He has demanded that U.S. allies allocate higher defense spending.

What is more concerning is that, in the Ukraine war, Trump appears to suggest that the U.S. supports Russia more than Ukraine. In fact, the war primarily erupted and dragged on because Russia attacked Ukraine. Russia's reasoning is its feeling of being threatened by Ukraine's desire to join NATO.

Poland, one of the European Union and NATO members closest to Russia, is advocating for an increase in the budget. "At least 3 percent of the gross domestic product of alliance members must be allocated (for defense). We cannot wait until 2030," said Polish President Andrzej Duda on Thursday (6/3/2025) in Brussels, Belgium.

In the domestic sphere, Duda is pushing even further. He has proposed a constitutional amendment to increase defense spending. "The amendment will ensure that all this spending is truly realized," he said.

Warsaw is targeting an allocation equivalent to 4.7 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025. Currently, Poland's defense spending is equivalent to 4.1 percent of GDP, the highest among the majority of NATO members.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk even stated that defense spending could reach 5 percent of GDP. This plan would make Poland truly the most serious about defense.

Another seriousness is shown by Tusk's proposal for defense expansion. He proposed combat training for all adult males in Poland. This is based on the need for up to 500,000 soldiers, both active and reserve, to guard against changes in the security situation in the region.

By 2024, Poland will have a total of 200,000 soldiers and this year it is targeted to be 220,000 soldiers. Initially, Warsaw wanted to increase it to 300,000 soldiers. Now, it is 500,000 soldiers with the possibility of involving women.

Not only Poland, 26 other EU members also agreed to increase defense spending. The agreement was reached in a meeting on Thursday this week. They agreed to provide 150 billion euros for arms spending.

The money will be used to buy air defense artillery and field artillery and ammunition. It will also be used to buy military transport aircraft, drones, electronic warfare and defense equipment, and cyber defense. Some of the weapons will be channeled to Ukraine.

EU leaders also agreed to the European Commission easing budget restrictions for EU members, making a total of €650 billion available to all EU members for defense spending.

The mechanism would allow all EU members to spend 3 percent of GDP on defense. There are seven EU countries that do not reach that figure, including major powers such as Italy and Spain.

The commitment to spend more than 2 percent of the military has been there for 10 years, but it has not been fulfilled yet. It is not certain whether they are now willing or even able to dig deeper into their pockets.

It may be difficult for heavily indebted Spain to meet that. Spain may even demand free grants instead of loans.

The European Commission has proposed a 150 billion euro loan offer to buy new defense equipment, including air and missile defense. The money would be raised on financial markets and around 20 EU member states would benefit from more favorable interest rates.

Europe actually has a budget of 183 billion euros of Russian assets frozen and held in a Belgian clearing house. That's cash it could seize if it wanted.

But some countries felt it would be wiser to use the interest generated from the assets to help Ukraine rather than use the funds themselves. Others worried that seizing the money would damage confidence in the euro. Not to mention the complicated legal implications.

François Hollande, President of France 2012-2017, in his writing in The Economist magazine, Friday (7/3/2025), said that Europe abandoned by the US must immediately re-arm itself. Because, Trump destroyed the principles that were the basis of the Western alliance.

Hollande suggested that France should be more serious about increasing its aid to Ukraine. French aid is now considered far lower than Germany and Britain's contributions.

The Ukraine war has encouraged defense cooperation and coordination among EU countries, except for Hungary, which is close to Russia, and Italy, which is very close to the Trump administration. These two countries also disagree with the EU “fighting” the US and Russia.

The only sensible way is accelerated cooperation between countries willing to act, such as France and the UK. Europe will face serious threats, such as Russian aggressiveness, Chinese ambitions, the rise of nationalism, and terrorism.

What has changed is that Europeans have to fend for themselves as they have in the past. Europe's main ally (the US) is now seen by Hollande as challenging the rule of law, questioning Europe's economic and commercial interests, and encouraging far-right movements in their respective European elections.

"When faced with others who use force, we must be strong. When faced with division, we must unite. When faced with fear, we must be brave. This applies to Europe, especially to France," Hollande wrote.

Previously, Britain and France had jointly pushed for greater defense spending to help Ukraine without US help. French President Emmanuel Macron even proposed using French nukes to bolster European defense. France is the world's fourth-largest nuclear weapons owner after the US, Russia and China. This angered Russia.

Germany also urged Europe to prepare for “independence” from the US, which has guaranteed their security since the end of World War II. Germany plans to double its defense budget to 100 billion euros per year. There are also plans to set aside 500 billion euros to upgrade Germany’s damaged defense equipment.

The problem remains that Europe will still need years to build up its defense capabilities to replace those potentially lost with a full US withdrawal from Europe and NATO.

This is what Europe fears most, especially small countries like the Baltic states that are on the front lines of any potential Russian aggression and currently rely on US troops and assets for security. “For us, it’s like jumping off a ship in the middle of the ocean,” said Linas Kojala, chief executive of the Center for Geopolitical and Security Studies in Lithuania.

Replacing what the US did for NATO will take money, personnel, time and strong European cooperation, and it won’t be easy. The main problem is that NATO was built as a US-dominated alliance and relies on US leadership, advanced weapons, intelligence and airlift, as former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder told The New York Times on March 7, 2025.

NATO's current command structure is essentially owned and operated by the US. "America is the axis of the alliance so we can control our allies and make them do what we want," he said.

In other words, Daalder said, the US military is the skeleton of NATO. If the skeleton were suddenly removed, the body would die. Buying or producing the necessary defense equipment and recruiting and training the necessary troops would take a long time.

Former NATO Assistant Secretary General Camille Grand estimated that it would take 10 years for Europe to get out of the doldrums. That is if the world is normal. If there is urgency like now, it could be faster.

Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and now at the Center for a New American Security, Jim Townsend, warned that Europe has too few troops, citing the examples of Britain and Denmark, which have good military strength.

However, they still wouldn't be able to survive a fierce battle. At most, they would only be able to survive for a few weeks.

Quality alone is not enough, it still requires a large number of troops. If Europe opens military recruitment, it will be difficult because salaries and career prospects are better in the civilian world than in the military.

In fact, NATO needs at least 300,000 troops within 30 days to strengthen the alliance against Russia. While Europe is deliberating, Türkiye has offered to help strengthen Europe's defense.

Turkey, which has the second-largest military in NATO, is seeking to play a key role in European security after the US withdrew. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said it was unthinkable to build European security without Turkey. "It is impossible for Europe to be a global actor without Türkiye," he said.

Türkiye would be ready to deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission “if deemed necessary.” Since the Russian invasion, Türkiye has consistently defended Ukraine’s territorial integrity and supplied Ukraine with combat drones and naval vessels.

In recent years, Türkiye has developed its defense industry significantly. Its exports grew by 29 percent to reach $7.1 billion in 2024. This places Türkiye 11th in global defense exports.

According to the Military Budget survey of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the driving force behind Turkey's success is the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which has been sold to more than 25 countries, including Poland and Romania.

IISS expert Tom Waldyn said sales to European countries, particularly EU members, added credibility to Turkey's argument that it is a key player in European security. According to IISS data, Turkey has 373,200 active troops and 378,700 reservists.

Before accepting Türkiye's offer, Daalder suggested that the US wait and not rush to withdraw from NATO until Europe is ready to take over.

Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies also suggested that it might be time for Europe to revisit the concept of a “European army” that the US has long opposed. This would make spending more efficient.

A standing European force would not need to replace the US in any capacity, but could be integrated into NATO and strong enough to deter Russia from attacking member states.

After all, Europe—on paper—has nearly two million uniformed personnel and spends about $338 billion a year on defense. That’s more than enough to deter Russia and enough to make Europe collectively a military power.

"But the question is who would lead such a force and under what political authority. That is what is important," Bergmann said.