Assessing Manchester United's Sky-High Transfer Value for Mbeumo

Antony, Casemiro, and Rasmus Hojlund. These are the names of Manchester United players who were brought in at excessively high prices in recent years. Due to being frequently deceived in player acquisitions, concerns for MU have resurfaced during this transfer window.

Specifically, the purchase of Brentford winger Bryan Mbeumo. According to The Athletic, Manchester United and Brentford agreed on a total transfer fee of £71 million (Rp 1.55 trillion) on Friday (July 18, 2025) WIB. Payment will be made in four installments.

MU had actually made two offers for Mbeumo, with packages worth £55 million and £62.5 million. However, both were rejected by Brentford. Lacking other player options, MU launched a third offer that could make Mbeumo the sixth most expensive player in the club's history.

The price of Mbeumo has become a topic of debate on social media. Not only is it significantly above the market price, which is no more than 50 million pounds, but the player also has just one year left on his contract with Brentford. Ideally, MU could take control in the negotiations.

The price was directly compared to other wingers, such as Anthony Elanga, Mohammed Kudus, and Noni Madueke. They transferred for no more than 55 million pounds. Meanwhile, their ages are significantly below that of Mbeumo, who will turn 26 on August 7.

The factor that makes Mbeumo quite commensurate with his price is his goal contribution last season. The player from Cameroon contributed 20 goals and 7 assists in the English Premier League. Mbeumo's number of goals and assists is only surpassed by Alexander Isak (Newcastle United) and Mohamed Salah (Liverpool).

In last season's MU squad, there was not a single player who could produce double-digit goals. Attacking midfielder Bruno Fernandes and winger Amad Diallo were the most prolific, contributing eight goals each. The differentiating figure in the attacking line that is hoped for is Mbeumo.

Interestingly, Mbeumo's contributions in goals and assists were able to generate an additional 22 points for Brentford last season. Compared to Mbeumo, only Salah earned more points in the league (38) with a production of 29 goals and 18 assists. He has proven to be a game-changer.

Gary Neville, former MU defender, stated that adaptation has always been a challenge for new players at MU. From Antony to Hojlund, they have been unable to display performances similar to those at their previous clubs. According to him, the differences in character and playing style in England have a significant impact.

Neville also believes United need players who are ready to play in the Premier League, like Mbeumo and previous signing Matheus Cunha. "They're experienced, have played a lot of games here, and they're the exact profile United need," he told Sky Sports.

The problem is, Mbeumo has never scored double-digit goals in the Premier League before last season. He has been playing since the 2021-22 season, but has only managed to produce a maximum of nine goals in a single season. Questions then arise: has his ability improved or is it merely a one-season phenomenon?

The value of Mbeumo's chances increased last season, but not significantly. He recorded 12.3 xG (expected goals). In the three previous seasons, he produced around 9.3 - 9.8 xG. The most noticeable difference is in efficiency and how Mbeumo translates opportunities.

Mbeumo is recorded as the most efficient player in front of goal. He has produced the best difference between xG value and the number of goals in the 2024-25 league season, which is +7.7. Ideally, Mbeumo's chances could only yield 12 goals, but he has managed to surpass that with a total of 20 goals.

The translation of the statistics is quite complex, as it can indicate either a positive or negative outcome. This is due to two factors that contribute to a significant surplus in the difference between xG values and the number of goals. First, the player is indeed very sharp. Second, the player is very fortunate.

It has been proven that it is very difficult to consistently record a surplus in this aspect every season. Manchester City midfielder Phil Foden, for example, recorded the best difference in the 2023-24 season (+8.6), while scoring 19 goals. However, that difference drastically diminished last season with 7 goals from 5.2 xG.

One thing that could give United some peace of mind is Mbeumo's development. His contribution has never declined, from 4 goals (2021-22), 9 goals (2022-23 and 2023-24), and even last season. "I'm still improving every day I step on the pitch. There are no limits to what I can do," he told BBC Sport last June.

Regardless of the price, MU has actually acquired a player that meets their needs. Mbeumo can provide the sharpness that was lacking in last season's squad and presents competition for Diallo. Moreover, they also do not have many options in the midst of the free market for wingers.

The team coached by Ruben Amorim is struggling to compete with other major clubs. MU does not have the privilege of playing in Europe next season. They are also undergoing a tumultuous transition period. Meanwhile, Mbeumo has already chosen MU since the transfer rumors began circulating.

However, MU's history is somewhat unfavorable when it comes to purchasing players at above-market prices. The price affects the expectations of fans and the pressure on the players. Antony has already proven this. After shedding the label of being MU's second most expensive player, he performed exceptionally well at Real Betis. (AP/REUTERS)