Measuring the Chances of Asian Teams Competing in the FIFA World Cup

A total of nine countries will represent Asia in the FIFA World Cup 2026. What are the chances of the Asian representatives competing against teams from Europe, America, and Africa in this quadrennial tournament?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is just days away. Nine Asian Football Confederation (AFC) nations will participate in the world's biggest football event. They are Japan, South Korea, Iran, Australia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Uzbekistan, and Jordan. Uzbekistan and Jordan are making history as the first-ever qualifiers, making them debutants in the tournament.

The nine representatives from Asia are the result of 47 AFC member countries that qualified from the qualification round from October 2023 to April 2026. After undergoing dozens of matches in the qualification round, these nine teams successfully secured their places in the World Cup to be held in the United States, Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19, 2026.

Iraq was recorded as the last Asian representative to qualify for the final round to get a ticket to the 2026 World Cup. The "Lions of Mesopotamia" qualified after defeating Bolivia with a score of 2-1 in the final match of the inter-confederation play-off which took place in Mexico on April 1, 2026. This victory made Iraq the 48th country and the last team to complete the list of participants in the 2026 World Cup tournament.

Of the nine Asian representatives, several traditional Asian powerhouses once again demonstrated their dominance and have the potential to compete with European, African, and American teams. South Korea secured their place at their 11th consecutive World Cup. This performance solidified their status as a major force in Asian football. The 2002 World Cup semifinalists advanced unbeaten in Group B and secured their qualification well before the final matchday.

Another traditional strength is that Japan continues its consistency by qualifying for the World Cup for the eighth consecutive time. Japan became the first Asian country to secure a ticket to the 2026 World Cup, suffering only one defeat throughout the qualification process. In the last World Cup held in Qatar in 2022, this highest-ranked FIFA team in Asia defeated football giants Spain and Germany in the group stage to advance to the Round of 16.

Next, Australia, which joined the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) in January 2006, maintained its tradition of appearing at the World Cup after securing its sixth consecutive participation. Australia qualified as runners-up in Group C of the third round of the Asian qualifying round. The "Land of the Kangaroos" achieved its best ever performance, reaching the round of 16 at the 2006 and 2022 World Cups.

In addition to the traditional strength of Asia, two teams from the West Asia region, namely Saudi Arabia and Iran, also have the opportunity to advance further in this World Cup. Saudi Arabia and Iran have participated in the event seven times. Saudi Arabia's best achievement in the World Cup was reaching the Round of 16 in 1994, while Iran has consistently been eliminated in the group stage.

The other two teams, namely Iraq and Qatar, have participated twice until the 2026 World Cup. Meanwhile, Jordan and Uzbekistan have only participated once and are debutants in this World Cup. They will strive hard to advance from the group stage.

The presence of nine Asian teams indicates that the quality of Asian football is increasingly developing. The AFC representatives in the four-year tournament are predicted to perform more attractively, with hopes of advancing not only beyond the group stage but also into the knockout phase.

The Asian Football Confederation (AFC) first sent its representative to the World Cup in 1938 in France. At that time, it was the 3rd World Cup. The Dutch East Indies (currently part of Indonesia) was the first Asian representative in the 1938 FIFA World Cup.

In the next World Cup, India was supposed to be the second Asian representative in the 1950 World Cup, but ultimately the country withdrew. As a result, there was no representative from Asia in that fourth World Cup. Subsequently, starting from the 1954 World Cup, Asia has consistently sent one representative to that international event.

The number of representative countries has continued to increase since the 1986 World Cup. At that time, the AFC sent two representatives to participate. In the 1998 World Cup, the number of representatives from the AFC increased to four teams (countries). This increase in quota coincided with the rise in World Cup participants from 16 teams to 32 teams. The number of AFC representatives further increased in the 2018 World Cup to five teams and six teams in the 2022 World Cup.

At the 2026 World Cup, the number of representatives from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) has increased to 9 countries as the number of teams in the final round rises from 32 to 48 teams.

Since the World Cup in 1938 until the 2026 edition, 15 countries in Asia have participated in the World Cup finals. In addition to the nine countries that qualified for the 2026 World Cup finals, there are six other countries that have previously qualified for the finals in earlier World Cups, namely the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia), North Korea, Israel, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and China.

The Dutch East Indies advanced to the final without having to play a qualifying match, as their opponent, Japan, withdrew. In their third World Cup, the Dutch East Indies played only one match, suffering a 6-0 defeat to Hungary. Due to the knockout format, the Dutch East Indies national team immediately left after suffering this crushing defeat.

Next, North Korea represented Asia in the 1966 World Cup in England. In their debut, North Korea managed to advance to the quarter-finals. In the group stage, North Korea lost 3-0 to the Soviet Union in the opening match, then drew 1-1 against Chile, and won 1-0 against Italy. In the quarter-final match, they were defeated by Portugal 5-3.

Another Asian representative, Israel, which was still a member of the AFC at that time, represented Asia in the 1970 World Cup in Mexico. Israel's debut in the tournament ended in the group stage after losing 0-2 to Uruguay and drawing twice against Sweden and Italy. Israel was officially expelled from the AFC in 1974 following numerous rejections from Arab countries related to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Kuwait represented Asia at the 1982 World Cup in Spain. This competition marked the debut and the only appearance of a Gulf country in the World Cup matches. Kuwait's journey ended in the group stage. They suffered two defeats against France (1-4) and England (0-1), and managed to secure only one draw against Czechoslovakia (1-1).

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) became one of Asia's representatives at the 1990 World Cup held in Italy. The UAE qualified for the World Cup for the first and only time to date. However, in the three matches during the group stage at that time, they ended with losses. The UAE lost to Colombia (0-2), Germany (1-5), and Yugoslavia (1-4).

Twelve years later, China, along with Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia, represented Asia in the 2002 World Cup held in South Korea and Japan. This international event marked China's first participation. Unfortunately, the journey of the Bamboo Curtain country came to a halt in the group stage after suffering three defeats. China lost to Costa Rica (0-2), Brazil (0-4), and Turkey (0-3).

Upon closer examination, based on regional federations, there are four AFC member federations that have sent their representatives to the World Cup. They are the West Asian Football Federation (WAFF), East Asian Football Federation (EAFF), Central Asian Football Association (CAFA), and ASEAN Football Federation (AFF). Meanwhile, the South Asia Football Federation (SAFF) has yet to send its representatives to the World Cup.

Throughout the history of the World Cup, the West Asian Football Confederation has been the region in Asia that has sent the most representatives to the tournament. This confederation encompasses seven countries, namely Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. Four of these countries have qualified for the final round of the 2026 World Cup, namely Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and Jordan.

The East Asia region has four representatives that have previously participated in the World Cup finals, namely Japan, South Korea, North Korea, and China. Two countries returned to participate in the 2006 World Cup, namely Japan and South Korea.

Meanwhile, the Central Asia region has previously sent two representatives to the World Cup, namely Iran and Uzbekistan. Iran is participating for the seventh time in the 2026 World Cup, while Uzbekistan is making its debut in the 2026 edition.

The AFF is represented by two countries, namely the Dutch East Indies (now Indonesia) and Australia. Australia is not technically part of Asia; however, this country joined the AFC in 2006 and became a full member of the ASEAN Football Federation (AFF) in 2013. Australia has qualified again for the 2026 World Cup and will participate for the seventh time.

The FIFA ranking, which reflects the quality of a country's national team, can serve as one of the bases for predicting the strength of a nation's football team. In addition, the experience and performance of the team in the World Cup can enhance the standard of play and the competitive mentality of the team.

Based on the FIFA rankings as of April 2026 and the teams' experiences in the World Cup, there are at least five countries that have the potential to advance from the group stage and progress to the knockout phase or the round of 32. In fact, they could potentially reach the round of 16 and even the quarter-finals (last 8).

The teams that advance from the group stage are those that occupy the first and second positions in each group, as well as the best third-placed teams from the 12 groups of the 2026 World Cup. The five Asian teams that have the potential to progress to the knockout stage are Japan, South Korea, Australia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

Japan, as the highest-ranked FIFA team in Asia (ranked 18th in the world), is placed in Group C alongside the Netherlands (ranked 7th), Sweden (38th), and Tunisia (44th). Based on the FIFA rankings, the Samurai Blue is in second place after the Netherlands and has the opportunity to qualify directly for the knockout stage, at least in the second position of the group. With experience from participating in the World Cup eight times consecutively and reaching the Round of 16 in the 2022 World Cup, Japan's chances of progressing smoothly in the group stage and competing in the knockout phase appear promising.

South Korea also has the opportunity to advance directly from the group stage. This nation, which holds the record for the most Asian representatives in the World Cup and is ranked 25th in the world, is placed in Group A alongside the host country Mexico (ranked 15th), the Czech Republic (41st), and South Africa (60th). Similar to Japan, this Ginseng country’s team is in second place after Mexico based on the FIFA ranking. With experience from participating in the World Cup 11 times, achieving 4th place in the 2002 World Cup, and advancing to the Round of 16 in the 2022 World Cup, the "Taegeuk Warriors" have a strong chance of progressing in the group stage and even competing in the knockout phase.

Other AFC members, Australia, ranks 27th in the FIFA rankings and is placed in Group D alongside the host country, the United States (ranked 16), Paraguay (40), and Turkey (22). The "Socceroos" are positioned third after the US and Turkey based on the FIFA rankings. With the experience of participating in the World Cup six times in a row and advancing to the Round of 16 in the 2022 World Cup, the chances for this team, coached by Tony Popovic, to progress to the knockout stage or at least qualify through the best third-placed teams are promising.

Meanwhile, Iran, which ranks 21st in the FIFA rankings or second highest in Asia, also has the opportunity to advance from the group stage. This Persian nation is in Group G alongside Egypt (ranked 28), Belgium (9), and New Zealand (85). Although they have been eliminated in the group stage in all seven World Cup appearances, Iran has the chance to make history by advancing to the knockout stage for the first time. Moreover, this team is determined to prove their superiority in football in front of the host country, the United States, which is currently in conflict with their nation.

Saudi Arabia, currently ranked 61st by FIFA, also has the opportunity to replicate its achievement of reaching the Round of 16 in the 1994 World Cup. Although it is challenging, Saudi Arabia, which is in Group H alongside Spain (ranked 2), Uruguay (17), and Cape Verde (69), still has a chance to advance through the pathway of the best third-placed teams from 12 groups.

Iraq, ranked 57th by FIFA, and Qatar, in 55th place, are likely to face challenges in advancing from the group stage. Iraq is placed in Group I alongside France, which holds the top position in FIFA rankings, Senegal (14), and Norway (31). Meanwhile, Qatar is in Group B with the host country Canada (ranked 30), Bosnia and Herzegovina (65), and Switzerland (19).

The chances of the two debut teams, namely Jordan and Uzbekistan, advancing from the group stage are relatively slim. In the history of the World Cup, Asian representatives making their debut have often been eliminated in the group stage, except for North Korea and Saudi Arabia, which managed to progress to the next round in their inaugural appearances.

In addition, the debutant Asian team will face a challenging path in the group stage as they occupy the bottom position in the FIFA ranking. Jordan, ranked 63rd, must confront the members of Group J, namely Argentina (FIFA ranking 3), Algeria (28), and Austria (24). Similarly, Uzbekistan, ranked 50th in the FIFA standings, will meet the members of Group K, which include Colombia (FIFA ranking 13), Congo (46), and Portugal (5).

Nevertheless, the Asian representatives still have a chance to compete with other teams from Europe, America, and Africa. Football, especially the World Cup, often produces surprises, such as the 2022 Qatar World Cup, where South Korea defeated the strong Portugal team to advance to the round of 16 as runners-up in Group H. Likewise, Japan defeated world football giants Germany and Spain to advance to the round of 16 as winners of Group E.

In the World Cup, underdogs can still defeat stronger teams. Ultimately, football games can't always be determined by statistics or on-paper strength. Teams that can adapt their tactics, teamwork, mental factors, and luck have a greater chance of going far. (KOMPAS LITBANG)