Melting Arctic Accelerates Global Warming, Challenges in Adapting

Maintaining long-term global warming at two degrees Celsius as the Paris Climate Agreement targets is considered impossible. Global warming is now dramatically affecting the Arctic, melting frozen ground, releasing long-stored carbon into the air as greenhouse gases, and ultimately accelerating the pace of climate change.

In 2015, nearly 200 world leaders pledged to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Scientists identified the threshold as critical to preventing the breakdown of key ocean circulation systems, the sudden thawing of boreal permafrost and the collapse of tropical coral reefs.

The 1.5C target has been breached for the past two years, according to data from the European Union's Copernicus climate monitoring system, although the Paris Agreement refers to long-term trends over decades.

Don't give up, even when faced with change.

But given current trends in carbon emissions and temperature increases, maintaining long-term global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, or even 2 degrees Celsius, is now “impossible.” A new analysis led by leading climate scientist James Hansen in the journal Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development on February 3, 2025, concludes that Earth’s climate is more sensitive to rising greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought.

The ambitious climate change scenario outlined by the UN's climate panel (IPCC), which gives the planet a 50 percent chance of keeping warming below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, is now considered implausible, Hansen, a former NASA climate scientist who told the US Congress in 1988 that global warming was underway, said.

Instead, he and his team argue, temperature increases will remain at or above 1.5 degrees Celsius for the next few years, damaging coral reefs and triggering more powerful storms, before rising to around 2 degrees Celsius by 2045.

Hansen's paper predicts that melting polar ice and freshwater injection into the North Atlantic will trigger the closure of the Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within the next 20–30 years. The end of this current "would cause major problems including several meters of sea level rise. The researchers describe the AMOC closure as a 'point of no return.'

New research published in the journal Science on Thursday (6/2/2025) strengthens Hansen's analysis. According to the report written by Julienne C. Stroeve of the Center for Earth Observation Science (CEOS), University of Manitoba and team, even if every country fulfills its commitments in the current Paris Agreement, the world will still continue to warm by 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100.

"This is a reality that we have to face. We have taken the first step by signing the Paris Agreement, but we are already living in the 'changing world' that we are trying to prevent," said Professor of Ecosystem Ecology Ted Schuur of Northern Arizona University, who participated in the study.

He said it was time to take the next step to adjust climate goals to meet this new reality.

According to Schuur, the Earth is warming 1.5 degrees faster than previously thought due to drastic changes in the Arctic Circle. According to their study, the Arctic is warming almost four times faster than the rest of the world. This is because its frozen surface has melted.

Take sea ice for example. Before current global warming, the Arctic Ocean would freeze in the winter and partially melt in the summer.

But now that global warming has surpassed 1.5 degrees, much of the winter ice is melting each summer, leaving more of the ocean exposed until late fall. That accelerates warming because dark-colored ocean water absorbs more sunlight than light-colored ice.

"The Arctic Ocean is becoming unrecognizable. The amount of ice remaining at the end of summer is decreasing over time. Soon, summer ice could be a thing of the past," Schuur said.

Such conditions will change the lives of people living in the region and open new shipping routes. The next impact, the new routes that are opened will create new international relations problems.

On land, warming is also affecting the Arctic dramatically. As temperatures rise, vast expanses of land covered by permafrost are melting, releasing long-stored carbon into the air as a greenhouse gas.

Scientists have predicted that as warming continues, this decaying organic matter will release amounts of carbon dioxide and methane comparable to the carbon emissions of major industrialized nations. Unfortunately, Schuur says, this phenomenon was not adequately accounted for in policymakers’ calculations in 2016 (the year after the Paris Agreement entered into force).

"We're talking about a place that's remote for many people, but changes in the Arctic aren't just happening in the Arctic," he said.

As the Arctic loses its permafrost, the organic matter stored in it turns into greenhouse gases that go into the atmosphere and accelerate warming. “Last summer, Phoenix had 70 days with temperatures above 110. That was driven primarily by human greenhouse gas emissions, but it was accelerated in part by additional greenhouse gases from the Arctic,” Schuur said.

Schuur said it was now clear that current policy targets would warm the planet by 2.7 degrees by the end of the century, creating an even warmer world than we currently experience. It was now the collective task to make society more resilient to the inevitable changes ahead and try to reduce further human greenhouse gas emissions.

"We can't stop change, it's already happening," Schuur said.

However, humans can still try to slow down the changes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, this climate change phenomenon can be managed well so that people and ecosystems are in a better position for the future.

Scientists encourage people to get involved in their city, county, or state’s sustainability efforts, since climate impacts can be more pronounced. Getting involved can mean attending community meetings or pitching new policy ideas to leaders, or it can mean supporting sustainability measures by voting in local elections.

Beyond structural collective efforts, each individual is also required to be involved, such as prioritizing public transportation and choosing low-carbon food. These individual choices may not stop global warming, but they still help slow the rate of warming.

"Don't give up, even in the face of change," Schuur said.

Now, we have to change the way we think. Say to yourself: I live in a new and changed world. What can I do to help adapt and slow down the change so we have more time to adapt?