2025 Dry Season Delayed, Some Areas of Indonesia Still Entering Rainy Season

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – According to an analysis by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), as of early June 2025, only about 19 percent of the seasonal zones in Indonesia have entered the dry season. This means that the majority of regions in Indonesia are still categorized as being in the rainy season.

The Head of BMKG, Dwikorita Karnawati, stated that one of the main factors for the delay in the onset of the dry season this year is due to rainfall conditions that are higher than usual or above normal during the period of April to May 2025. In fact, this period should be a transition from the rainy season to the dry season.

This condition had previously been predicted by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) through the monthly climate forecast released in March 2025. In the prediction, BMKG anticipated an increase in rainfall in the southern regions of Indonesia, such as southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara.

The increase in rainfall has caused these regions to not yet fully transition to the dry season. This condition is different from the climatological calendar, which generally indicates that the dry season has begun in many areas during this period.

"The seasonal and monthly predictions we released since March indicate an anomaly of above-normal rainfall in those areas. This serves as the main basis for predicting the delay of this year's dry season," said Dwikorita in his statement, Saturday (21/6/2025).

The BMKG's analysis of rainfall data across Indonesia during the First Decade or the first ten days of June 2025 notes that the nature of rainfall in various regions is beginning to show signs of a shift towards dry conditions.

Global climate change causes anomalies that we must be aware of and adaptation must be carried out quickly and appropriately.

A total of 72 percent of the area is categorized as normal, while 23 percent is categorized as below normal or drier than usual. Meanwhile, only about 5 percent of the area is still experiencing rainfall categorized as above normal.

In other words, the trend of decreasing rainfall has begun to be felt in most regions of Indonesia, although it is not yet spatially uniform. The regions of Sumatra and Kalimantan have also experienced several consecutive decades with rainfall lower than normal, leading to early indications of the dry season becoming more apparent in those areas.

Nevertheless, from April to May, several regions in southern Indonesia experienced rainfall conditions above normal. This pattern indicates that the transition to the dry season does not occur uniformly across Indonesia.

Referring to the latest monthly weather forecast, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that rainfall conditions categorized as above normal will continue in several regions until October 2025. Therefore, BMKG reaffirms that the dry season of 2025 is likely to have a shorter duration with rainfall characteristics above normal.

According to Dwikorita, the condition of consistently high rainfall during the dry season brings two sides of consequences that must be understood and addressed appropriately. On one hand, rain during the dry season can be utilized by rice farmers as the supply of irrigation water is relatively available, thus supporting the continuity of planting periods and agricultural production.

Meanwhile, on the other hand, the increase in rainfall during the dry season also poses risks to horticultural agriculture, which is generally more sensitive to high humidity conditions. Horticultural crops such as chili, onion, and tomato are very vulnerable to pest and disease attacks due to excessive moisture.

"We encourage horticultural farmers to anticipate this condition by preparing a good drainage system and adequate plant protection. We can no longer rely on old climate patterns. Global climate change causes anomalies that we must be vigilant about, and adaptation must be carried out quickly and accurately," said Dwikorita.

The Director of Public Meteorology at BMKG, Andri Ramdhani, stated that given the relatively dynamic atmospheric conditions, the public is urged to remain vigilant against the potential for extreme weather. Heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves are still expected to occur even though several regions have entered the dry season.

"The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) continues to emphasize the importance of regularly monitoring weather information from official sources and taking necessary mitigation steps to anticipate and reduce the impacts of hydrometeorological disaster risks in their respective areas," he stated.

Based on the analysis of BMKG, the spatial activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby waves, and Kelvin waves is expected to continue propagating in the region of Indonesia. This weather activity may trigger an increase in rainfall over the next week.

From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the weather in Indonesia will generally be dominated by partly cloudy conditions with light rain. However, it is important to be cautious of the potential increase in moderate to heavy rainfall in several regions.

Specifically, during the period of June 20-22, heavy rain may occur in the regions of Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, Central Papua, and South Papua. During this period, rain accompanied by strong winds is also likely to occur in Aceh, Lampung, Banten, West Java, East Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, North Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, and South Papua.