Without American Weapons, Ukraine Is Getting Worse

All of this could happen after the President of the United States, Donald Trump, ordered the cessation of military aid to Ukraine. The order took effect immediately after being approved by Trump on Monday evening (3/3/2025) Washington DC time.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dispatched Ukrainian diplomats to communicate with allies in response to Trump's directive. "We are discussing all scenarios to protect Ukraine. The minimum goal is to maintain our position and create conditions for proper diplomacy, to end the war as quickly as possible," he said, Tuesday Kyiv time.

His statements about the war differed between before and after Trump's directive regarding defense aid. Last week, he mentioned that peace with Russia was still very far off. Now, he states that he wants to end the war as soon as possible.

Last week's statement was deemed by Trump as an indication that Zelenskyy does not want peace to be achieved soon. In fact, Trump wants Ukraine to stop waging war with Russia immediately.

"This is the worst statement ever from Zelenskyy. America will not be involved with this any longer," Trump wrote on social media.

Zelenskyy's statement on peace further aggravated Trump's frustration, which had already been evident since their meeting last Friday. At that time, Trump had even requested that U.S. defense aid to Ukraine be halted.

This means not only the cessation of weapon shipments. Military training, access to technology to support combat, and the supply of intelligence information are also halted.

Senior Lieutenant Nazary Kishak stated that Ukraine has not forgotten the impact of the delayed supply of U.S. weapons in 2023. The effects were felt until mid-2024.

At that time, the interval of Ukrainian:Russian field artillery fire reached 1:10. Every time Ukraine fired, Russia returned fire 10 times. Kyiv could not return fire more often due to limited armed ammunition.

Meanwhile, a U.S. Defense Department official, speaking to The New York Times and Bloomberg, confirmed the order. The official, who declined to be identified, said the order was effective immediately.

All U.S. weapons that have not yet arrived in Ukraine, including those in transit in Poland or in the process of being shipped to Ukraine, are prohibited from being sent. "President Trump has made it clear that he is focused on peace. We want our (Ukrainian) partners to be committed to that goal as well," the official said.

Trump also called for a thorough review to ensure that U.S. weapons are contributing positively to the solution of the Ukraine war. “We are pausing and reviewing our assistance to make sure that it is contributing to the solution,” the official added.

Although not a major supplier, US aid to Ukraine is crucial. Missiles for the Patriot air defense artillery can only be produced by the US. Patriot is the only defense against various Russian ballistic missiles. Without US supplies, Ukrainian skies are unprotected from Russian missiles.

European air defense systems like the SAMP/T could, on paper, be a replacement for the Patriot. Unfortunately, the current production capacity and performance of the SAMP/T are not yet capable of protecting Ukrainian skies from Russian missiles.

Ukraine also relies on US rockets and guided munitions to attack Russia. Without Ukraine firing those munitions, Russia has more freedom of movement.

Ukrainian lawmaker Fedir Venislavsky said the parliament was discussing Trump's decision, with the main goal of finding alternatives to air defense artillery and long-range rockets.

On paper, Ukraine could replace US weapons with drones or domestically produced weapons. Ukraine's defense industry is currently operating below capacity. To increase capacity, Ukraine needs capital, which it does not have at the moment.

US aid is also needed to maintain the various weapons provided to Ukraine. "Cutting off US aid will result in a new Bakhmut," Kishak said, referring to one of the Ukrainian cities captured by Russia after months of fierce fighting involving cannons, armored vehicles, tanks and missiles.

The US also provides a satellite network that is the backbone of military communications and remote weapons control. The rent is paid for by Poland and several EU members. However, access is completely controlled by the US.

Without US satellites, Ukraine's drones would be crippled because they would not be able to communicate with the command center. Ukraine also relies on US information to monitor the position of US troops and weapons. With that info, Ukraine determines targets.

The US decision does not only hurt Ukraine. It adds to the dilemma for US allies in Europe and elsewhere. “The US develops and tests its weapons here. If something happens, we will make it ourselves and decide for ourselves,” said Ukrainian defense industry figure Sergiy Koshman.

“The reality is that Ukraine is far less dependent on the U.S. for its day-to-day combat needs than it was a year ago,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who has visited Ukraine several times since the war began three years ago.

But if the suspension lasts longer, Ukraine will lose some of its advanced weapons. These include advanced air defense systems, surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, and long-range rocket artillery. The US is also known to provide spare parts, maintenance, and technical support to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said in an interview last month that cutting military aid would be a major blow but would not end the fighting. “The U.S. contribution to Ukraine’s defense and security capabilities is now about 30 percent,” Zelenskyy said.

“You can imagine what would happen to us without this crucial 30 percent,” Zelenskyy said.

US military aid also stopped flowing to Ukraine last year for several months, after Trump urged his Republican allies in Congress to withhold aid.

The impact is already being felt in Russia’s nighttime aerial bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. With air defense systems empty, air defense teams can do little to defend against Russia’s most advanced missiles as they destroy Ukraine’s thermal power plants.

Following Zelenskyy and Trump's spat, Ukraine's European allies have come together to try to come up with a peace plan. France, Britain and possibly other European countries have offered to send troops to Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached.

Then on Tuesday (4/3/2025), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a plan worth 800 billion euros or 841 billion US dollars to strengthen the defense of EU countries. The proposal aims to reduce the impact of a potential US disengagement and give Ukraine the military power to negotiate with Russia after the US freeze on aid to the struggling country.

Trump's order in the current situation has drawn criticism and condemnation from many parties. "By freezing military aid to Ukraine, President Trump has opened the door wide for Putin to escalate his violent aggression against innocent Ukrainians. The impact will undoubtedly be devastating," said Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, co-chairman of the Congressional European Union Caucus, said Trump's decision was unwise, indefensible and a direct threat to U.S. national security.

The Biden administration has given Kyiv more than $66.5 billion in military aid and weapons since the war began. But it has not used about $3.85 billion in funds authorized by Congress to send more weapons to Ukraine.

"This aid was approved by Congress on a bipartisan basis. Both Republicans and Democrats recognize that supporting Ukraine means supporting democracy and opposing Putin's aggression," Boyle said in a statement.

"But Trump, who has repeatedly praised Putin and belittled our allies, is now playing political games with vital military aid," Boyle said.

Democratic Representative Dan Goldman, who served as counsel to House Democrats in the first impeachment inquiry into Trump, said the aid cutoff was another blackmail on Zelenskyy.

“This is another blackmail on President Zelenskyy, illegally withholding aid to get President Zelenskyy to agree to a mineral deal,” Goldman said. (REUTERS/AP/AFP)