Madrid and City's Pentalogy in the "Silver Path" Trap

NYON, FRIDAY - Real Madrid and Manchester City seem destined to eliminate each other. For the fifth consecutive time since the 2021-22 season, they will meet again in the knockout phase of the Champions League. This quintet adds to the intense competition in the "silver path" towards the final in Budapest.

The draw for the Champions League round of 16 was completed at UEFA headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland, on Friday (February 27, 2026) WIB. The eight teams that qualified from the playoffs were drawn to face the top eight teams from the group stage. One of the draws will see Madrid and City face off again.

Madrid, having qualified through the playoffs, actually had two opponents: City or Sporting CP. However, as Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois predicted, fate would surely bring them back to face City. Madrid and City have met in the knockout stages in the last four editions.

The match was compelling both in terms of narrative and quality. Madrid came into the match with a grudge from the group stage. "El Real" struggled to make it through the playoffs after being knocked out of the top eight by City in the final week. Madrid finished ninth, one place behind City.

Meanwhile, "The Citizens" carry a curious feeling from their last two meetings. Pep Guardiola's team was eliminated by Madrid consecutively, including in the playoffs last season. As a result, City trails Madrid in their head-to-head record since 2021-22, 1-3.

Interestingly, when these two teams meet in the knockout stages other than the playoffs, one of them always ends up winning. This has been evident in three consecutive seasons, in 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24. It's no wonder their encounters are often referred to as the "phantom final."

According to Guardiola, meeting the most successful team in the history of the tournament, such as Madrid, is a great honor for them. "For us, it is an opportunity to learn and grow. You can become better and better in the future," said the manager.

Madrid and City are two teams with the highest squad values, according to Transfermarkt. This somewhat reflects the quality of their star-studded squads. "If we want to be champions, we certainly have to face the best teams (like City)," said Madrid midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni.

A winding road also awaits Madrid and City should they advance from the round of 16. They are in the "silver path" which contains major teams. The other three matches in this path are PSG versus Chelsea, Galatasaray versus Liverpool, and Atalanta versus Bayern Munich.

There are two paths to the final in Budapest, namely the "blue path" and the "silver path." Each path consists of eight teams. The competition in the "blue path" is not very crowded as it is only filled by two giant teams, Barcelona (versus Newcastle) and Arsenal (versus Bayer Leverkusen).

Just look at the comparison of the two paths. In the "silver path," there are many traditional teams that have proven capable of achieving success on the European stage. A total of six teams have won championships, combining for a total of 31 trophies. Meanwhile, only Barcelona (5 trophies) is the sole team that has ever won from the "blue path."

The disparity isn't just evident in history; it's also evident in current performance. According to Opta analysis data, which ranks teams based on performance trends or power rankings, the "silver path" also contains more teams in the top ten (6 teams) than the "blue path" (3 teams).

In addition to Madrid and City, the road is no less difficult for PSG and Chelsea. This duel will be a rematch of the 2025 Club World Cup final. Chelsea emerged as champions at that time, winning 3-0 against the reigning Champions League titleholder. The upcoming meeting will be different as it will take place over two matches, at home and away.

PSG coach Luis Enrique stated that the winding path actually motivates them even more. "If there is a team that has gone through the toughest group stage and is awaiting another difficult schedule, it is us. You need competition to win the Champions League, and we are the experts at it," he said.

Arsenal, the group champion, emerged as the biggest winner in the draw. The path for the team coached by manager Mikel Arteta is relatively clear to advance at least to the semifinals. Their potential opponents in the round of 16, Leverkusen, as well as in the quarterfinals, Bodo/Glimt or Sporting CP, are considered dark horses.

That path also increases Arsenal's chances, which is touted as the favorite to win. After the draw, according to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal's championship odds rose dramatically to 27.4 percent. This figure is the highest, significantly ahead of the second favorite team, Bayern (14.28 percent).

However, that's just a prediction on paper. On-field results can be quite different. As is well known, there have been many surprises this season. One such example is the miracle of the Norwegian team, Bodo/Glimt, who defeated last season's finalists, Inter Milan, in the playoffs.

The first match of the round of 16 will take place on March 10-11, followed by the second match on March 17-18. The team positioned lower in the group stage will play the home match first. In this case, Madrid will host City before visiting the Etihad Stadium for the decisive match. (AP/REUTERS).