FIFA has set the ideal final for the 2026 World Cup: Spain versus Argentina.

WASHINGTON DC, WEDNESDAY – For the first time in World Cup history, FIFA has rolled out the "red carpet" for the teams that occupy the top four positions in the FIFA rankings as of November 2025. They will be spared from the "group of death" in the qualifying round and will receive special treatment as their path to the semifinal phase is likely to be smooth.

The draw took place at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC, on Friday (5/12/2025) at 12:00 local time or Saturday (6/12/2025) at 00:00 WIB. Referring to the rules of the final draw for the 2026 World Cup, there are two rules that have been specifically formulated for the 12 teams in the first pot.

In pot 1, there are three host teams and nine teams that currently hold the highest FIFA rankings. Notably, for the trio of host teams, namely Canada, Mexico, and the United States, the groups they will occupy have already been confirmed.

Canada will fill Group A and will have the honor of playing the opening match of the 2026 World Cup on June 11. Mexico is in Group B, while the United States occupies Group D.

In addition to the three host teams, FIFA also introduced special regulations for the four highest-ranked teams. They are Spain (ranked 1), Argentina (2), France (3), and England (4).

They will be placed in different knockout phase brackets, simulating their advancement from the group stage as group champions. If FIFA's expectations are smoothly realized, then the duel of the four best teams based on FIFA rankings will meet in the semifinals.

However, according to the regulations, Spain and Argentina are confirmed to be on a knockout phase path that will only meet in the final match. Thus, indirectly, FIFA has arranged an ideal final to bring together Spain against Argentina, which are ranked first and second in the FIFA rankings as of November 2025.

France and England will no longer meet as they did in the quarter-finals of the 2022 World Cup. Most likely, France and England could also present an alternative ideal final if Spain and Argentina are eliminated before reaching the ultimate match.

"The teams ranked first and second will be randomly drawn into groups with opposite knockout paths. This also applies to the teams ranked third and fourth. This ensures that if they win their groups, the two best teams (FIFA ranking) will not meet before the final," stated FIFA regarding the rules, as quoted from FIFA's official website, Wednesday (3/12/2025).

FIFA's special rules are also inseparable from predictions by several parties about the potential of the top teams in the 2026 World Cup. Based on the Opta supercomputer simulation as of December 1, 2025, the trio of European ambassadors, namely Spain, France, and England, are the most favored to lift the iconic gold-plated trophy at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, USA, July 19, 2026.

The three teams have a championship percentage of more than 10 percent. Spain is favored to win with a probability of 17 percent. "La Roja" is followed by France with 14.1 percent and England with 11.8 percent.

Below them are five teams with a championship probability above five percent. These are Argentina (8.7 percent), Germany (7.1 percent), Portugal (6.6 percent), Brazil (5.6 percent), and the Netherlands (5.2 percent).

Spain deserves to be favored due to their impressive record over the past two years under Luis de la Fuente. They secured the trophy at the 2024 European Championship and reached the final of the 2024-2025 UEFA Nations League.

La Roja advanced to the World Cup with an unbeaten performance in the qualifying round. They secured five victories and one draw.

"Our journey is nothing and will not affect our participation in the 2026 World Cup. We must remain humble, work hard, and strive to the maximum because the World Cup will present difficult matches," said De La Fuente as reported by the website of the Royal Spanish Football Federation (RFEF).

Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni also does not want to be boastful about his team's chances. Scaloni is aware of the difficulty in defending the World Cup title. In the history of the World Cup, only two teams have ever successfully defended the championship trophy in two consecutive editions. They are Italy (1934 and 1938) and Brazil (1958 and 1962).

In addition to fierce competition, Scaloni mentioned that there are hidden challenges that "La Albiceleste" will face. The non-technical challenges are related to the high temperatures in North America during the upcoming summer.

"I've been told that the 2026 World Cup matches will be similar to the last Club World Cup, which started at 3 or 4 p.m. The heat during that time will be extremely intense and could impact the players," Scaloni told TNT Sport Argentina.

"Especially since the midfielders are extremely tired after a long season. That's what worries me," he added.

Meanwhile, another interesting aspect of the 2026 World Cup draw is the group occupied by Norway. Although returning to the World Cup since 1998, Norway is touted as one of the "dark horse" teams that any team fears.

Erling Haaland and his teammates completed the 2026 World Cup qualifying round perfectly in eight matches. They defeated the four-time World Cup champions, Italy, twice.

However, Norway will be placed in the third pot due to its low FIFA ranking. This situation gives "Landslaget" the opportunity to be seeded in the first pot, alongside teams like Argentina or Brazil.

On the other hand, they could eliminate one of the host teams. Norway has a great chance of avoiding strong European teams in the group stage.

"I hate watching the draw and am not interested in the ceremony at all. We are focused on preparing ourselves for the main round. Hopefully, we will also be blessed with good fortune," said Norway's Coach Stale Solbakken. (REUTERS/AFP)