Hydrometeorological Disasters and Potential Heavy Rain in Several Areas

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – Hydrometeorological disasters in the form of strong winds and floods have struck several regions in Indonesia over the past three days. The emergence of a tropical cyclone seed in the western Pacific Ocean northeast of Papua has contributed to the increase in extreme weather, particularly in eastern Indonesia.

The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) through the Operations Control Center (Pusdalops) reported a series of hydrometeorological disaster events during the period of September 21–23, 2025, on Tuesday (23/9/2025). The Head of the Data, Information, and Disaster Communication Center of BNPB, Abdul Muhari, stated that strong winds and flooding occurred in the Dagangan District, Madiun Regency, East Java Province on Sunday (21/9/2025).

Muhari stated that the impact of this disaster occurred in six villages, namely Ngranget Village, Padas Village, Segulung Village, Prambon Village, Banjarsari Kulon Village, and Banjarsari Wetan Village. A total of 78 households were affected by this disaster, including 78 residential units and 1 regional facility that sustained damage.

This cyclone seed has an impact on increasing extreme weather in some parts of Indonesia, especially in the eastern region.

In addition to Madiun, the Boyolali region in Central Java was hit by extreme weather characterized by heavy rain accompanied by strong winds on Sunday (21/9/2025). This event occurred around 18:30 WIB, causing damage in Ngemplak District, Pandeyan Village. According to preliminary data, a total of 89 households were affected by this incident.

Subsequently, flooding also occurred in Langkat Regency, North Sumatra Province, on Monday (22/9/2025). The flood was triggered by heavy rainfall in Sekoci Village and high tide, causing the Sei Besitang River to overflow. Approximately 150 families were affected, with 135 housing units sustaining damage.

The water level has been recorded at 80–100 cm and is currently beginning to recede. The Langkat District Disaster Management Agency, along with related agencies, continues to conduct data collection and monitoring of the affected areas.

Flooding also occurred in Donggala Regency, Central Sulawesi Province, due to heavy rainfall on Monday (22/9/2025). This flood affected Tibo Village and Kaliburu Village in the Sindue Tombusa Bora District, with 258 individuals impacted and 66 housing units suffering damage.

The Director of Public Meteorology at the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Andri Ramdhani, stated that tropical cyclone seed 92W has currently emerged in the western Pacific Ocean, northeast of Papua, since Saturday (20/9/2025). This cyclone seed is impacting the increase in extreme weather in several regions of Indonesia, particularly in the eastern areas.

According to Andri, based on the analysis results on Tuesday (23/9/2025), the center of circulation for tropical cyclone seed 92W was detected around 10.2 degrees North Latitude and 138.2 degrees East Longitude in the Philippine Sea north of Papua. The maximum wind speed around the system reached 20 knots or 37 km per hour, observed to the northeast of the system, with a minimum pressure of approximately 1007 hPa.

The Head of the Special Weather Prediction and Early Warning Team at BMKG, Miming Saepudin, in his report stated that the tropical cyclone seed 92W is supported by warm sea surface temperatures, reaching 29–30 degrees Celsius, and sufficiently moist air at every layer. At the same time, this is also triggered by the activity of the Equatorial Rossby wave and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

"According to predictions from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), within the next 24 hours, the intensity of tropical cyclone seed 92W is expected to experience a slight increase in speed in the western to southwestern quadrants of the system and move towards the west," said Miming.

Meanwhile, in the next 48-72 hours, the intensity of this system is expected to increase as the influence of Tropical Cyclone Ragasa, which is currently located near the Philippines, diminishes. However, the strength of tropical cyclone seed 92 W is predicted to decrease as the system moves westward into the Philippine archipelago.

According to the analysis by BMKG, the tropical cyclone seed 92W has an indirect impact on extreme weather conditions in Indonesia over the next 24 hours, resulting in high sea waves of 1.25 - 2.5 meters in the waters of the Sangihe - Talaud Islands, the waters of Morotai - Loloda, the waters east of the Halmahera Islands, the waters of Raja Ampat, and the northern Pacific Ocean from Maluku to West Papua. Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rain is expected in the regions of Southwest Papua, West Papua, Papua, North Maluku, and North Sulawesi.

Andri added that the combination of MJO, Kelvin waves, and equatorial Rossby waves in the same region and period is predicted to be active in the western Indian Ocean from Bengkulu to southern East Java, southern Sumatra, parts of Java, southern Kalimantan, the Java Sea, the Karimata Strait, the Sulawesi Sea, northern Sulawesi, the Makassar Strait, North Maluku, the waters north of North Maluku, southeastern Maluku, the Banda Sea, and the northern Indian Ocean of Papua. This also contributes to the increased growth of rain clouds in the region.

Based on various meteorological conditions, according to the forecast from BMKG, the rainfall over the next three days that has the potential to cause impacts is expected in the regions of Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Jambi, Bengkulu, Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Special Region of Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara. Other areas that may be affected include Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, Southwest Papua, West Papua, Central Papua, Papua Mountains, Papua, and South Papua.