Rice Production Potential in 2025 High, Rainy Season Approaching

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – The potential for national rice production in 2025 is higher than the actual rice production in 2024. In fact, the potential rice production in 2025 exceeds the target set by the Ministry of Agriculture.

However, the potential rice production could be diminished when the rainy season arrives from November 2025 to February 2026. Throughout this period, many national rice production centers will be in the first planting season (MT) for rice.

Based on the results of the Rice Area Sample Framework observed in September 2025, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) stated on Monday (3/11/2025) that the potential rice harvest from January to December 2025 covers an area of 11.35 million hectares. This harvest area has increased by 1.3 million hectares or 12.98 percent compared to the same period in 2025.

From the potential vast rice harvest, rice production throughout 2025 is estimated to reach 34.77 million tons. The volume of rice production represents an increase of 4.15 million tons or 13.54 percent compared to the realized rice production in 2024.

The potential rice production throughout 2025 exceeds the targets set by the Ministry of Agriculture and the estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which are 32-34 million tons and 34.5 million tons, respectively. However, this production potential is still lower than the rice production estimate from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which stands at 35.6 million tons.

Rice production throughout 2025 is estimated to reach 34.77 million tons. This volume of rice production represents an increase of 4.15 million tons or 13.54 percent compared to the realized rice production in 2024.

The Deputy for Distribution Statistics and Services at BPS, Pudji Ismartini, stated that the potential increase in rice harvest area is contributed by the realization of rice harvest area from January to April 2025, which increased by 25.82 percent year-on-year. Similarly, the potential increase in rice is due to the rise in rice production during January to April 2025, which reached 26.54 percent year-on-year.

However, the potential for extensive rice harvests and production throughout 2025 may still change depending on the condition of the rice plants from October to December 2025. These changes can be influenced by pest and disease attacks, drought, flooding, and the timing of the harvest.

In addition, Pudji continued, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has predicted the strengthening of La Nina in September 2025. This phenomenon is expected to trigger high rainfall until December 2025.

"Such predictions need to be heeded considering the high levels of rainfall in various regions of Indonesia, which have the potential to trigger flooding and consequently lead to crop failures," he stated at a press conference held in a hybrid format in Jakarta.

On November 1, 2025, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicted that the rainy season would occur from November 2025 to February 2026. BMKG urged the public and the government to enhance preparedness and mitigate the potential of hydrometeorological disasters.

The Head of BMKG, Dwikorita Karnawati, stated that in recent days, moderate to heavy rain has affected most of the western and central regions of Java. Some of these areas include Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, and parts of the Special Region of Yogyakarta.

"Heavy to very heavy rain with precipitation of 80-150 millimeters (mm) per day has occurred in several regions due to the impact of the Asian Monsoon winds. We must enhance our preparedness for the potential of hydrometeorological disasters," he stated during a press conference held online in Jakarta.

The peak phase of the rainy season in most regions of Indonesia is expected to occur during the period of December 2025 to January 2026. During this period, high rainfall has the potential to cause hydrometeorological disasters.

According to Dwikorita, currently, approximately 43.8 percent of Indonesia's territory or 306 Seasonal Zones (ZOM) have entered the rainy season. This rainy season will occur gradually from November 2025 to February 2028.

However, the peak phase of the rainy season in most regions of Indonesia is expected to occur during the period of December 2025 to January 2026. During this period, high rainfall has the potential to cause hydrometeorological disasters.

"On the other hand, in November 2025, the tropical cyclone period in the southern region of Indonesia will begin to be active. The cyclone has the potential to trigger very heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high waves, especially along the coasts of Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara," he said.

He also revealed that the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is collaborating with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) to anticipate and mitigate hydrometeorological disasters. One of the measures includes implementing Weather Modification Operations (OMC) for the areas surrounding DKI Jakarta, West Java, Banten, Central Java, and Yogyakarta.

In Central Java, OMC has been conducted since October 25, 2025, and will continue until early November 2025. Meanwhile, in West Java, OMC has been carried out since October 23, 2025, and will continue based on the situation and conditions of rainfall.

"The cloud seeding was conducted 60 times using two Cessna Caravan aircraft. The results were quite effective and significantly reduced and redistributed rainfall in the targeted areas," he said.

In an official statement released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Dwikorita stated that the rainy season also presents an opportunity for increased agricultural production. The rainy season plays a significant role in filling reservoirs, thereby ensuring the availability of irrigation water for up to three planting seasons.

The rainy season also ensures the sustainability of rain-fed rice fields that experience limited water supply during the dry season. In addition, the rainy season can also increase the area planted and the frequency of harvests, especially in regions with low planting indices.

The Head of the Communication and Information Services Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture, Mochammad Arief Cahyono, believes that the predictions and mitigation measures taken by BMKG represent a highly strategic scientific synergy for national agricultural development. Through accurate climate information, the government can develop a national planting calendar based on weather conditions.

The Ministry of Agriculture can also ensure the timely distribution of agricultural production facilities. Through the OMC, rainfall can be reduced and redistributed more evenly, including in agricultural areas and regions that require additional water supply.

"Of course, the Ministry of Agriculture will take advantage of this peak rainfall momentum to expand planting and secure the national food supply," said Arief.