As Iranian Missiles Strike Israeli Skies

Like raining fire from the sky, the appearance of an attack by more than 300 combined Iranian missiles and drones in the skies over Israel made the night bright with the flames of explosions from Iranian missiles intercepted by the Israeli air defense system.

The Iron Dome, David Sling, and David Arrow defense systems are seen struggling and struggling to face Iran's attack this time. This is different from the attack of hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones in 2024. In the attack on April 13, 2024, Iran sent more than 300 drones, missiles, and missiles into Israeli territory. Iran's retaliatory attack on the killing of two military generals and several IRGC members by Israel at the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, was recorded as not causing any casualties or damage.

The attack happened again on October 2, 2024 where Iran attacked the entire Israeli region with 350 combinations of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and suicide drones (kamikaze). At that time Iran was furious over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a military apartment in Tehran. However, defense assistance from the US Navy air defense system, as well as NATO countries guarding the Mediterranean waters have shot down almost all missiles and drones launched by Iran.

In this attack, dozens of powerful explosions were heard shaking the major cities of Israel. Notably, the capital Tel Aviv and Haifa were targeted by Iranian missiles. Yaakov Lappin, a military affairs analyst at the Alma Research Center, had previously expressed his concerns regarding the Iranian attack on April 13, 2024.

"If a mass combined attack occurs, in a single sequence, at the same time, they can overwhelm the system to a certain extent. The number of projectiles that successfully penetrate and the type of damage they cause is unknown," he said. Currently, it is recorded that dozens of hypersonic missiles and cruise missiles from Iran have successfully breached Israel's air defense system.

For the first time, buildings in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and other major cities have become easy targets for Iranian missiles. The sound of explosive detonations echoed and shook the entire city, with some being recorded live by Israeli citizens, creating a different impression of this attack.

In the October 2024 attack, evidence of the explosive power of a warhead struck at an extraordinary speed is the creation of a crater several meters wide and several meters deep.

Hypersonic missiles launched by Iran typically carry warheads weighing hundreds of kilograms, which significantly increases their destructive power in relation to the impact speed.

With such the effectiveness of hypersonic missiles, one can imagine the concerns of Israeli citizens if their country is unable to withstand attacks launched by Iran. And their concerns have now been partially proven.

The Sputnik website states that the effectiveness rate of interception by Israel's Iron Dome system is only around 10-15 percent. Conversely, Israeli officials and Western observers assess that 10-15 percent of Iranian missiles have successfully penetrated Israeli cities.

Israel's air defense system is multilayered, with short-range missile defense provided by the Iron Dome (up to 60 km); medium-range protection by the David Sling system (up to 70 km), and at the highest level, protection is provided by the Arrow system (up to 150 km). In conditions of being attacked by hundreds of missiles and conventional projectiles, such as during the Hamas attack following October 7, 2023, almost none were able to evade the Iron Dome's missile interception.

However, Iranian warfare experts continue to develop their missile capabilities and combat strategies to counter the effectiveness of the Iron Dome. Iran's ability to breach Israel's Iron Dome system is not solely reliant on the hypersonic speed of the Fattah-2 missiles used, but also involves changes in attack tactics.

This includes flooding the Israeli skies with hundreds of hypersonic missiles, drones and decoy missiles at the same time in a wave of attacks. If hypersonic missiles are used after or in conjunction with a large number of conventional missiles and drones, Israel's defense system could be overwhelmed. This strategy is known as a "saturation attack," where the volume of attacks exceeds the capacity of the defense system.

Sputnik reported that Iran's first attack that caused much destruction in Israel came from 200 hypersonic missiles, more than 100 Shahed-136 drones, and 100 decoy missiles. These decoy missiles were launched to drain Israel's anti-aircraft system, especially the Iron Dome which takes quite a long time, 11 minutes to reload the missile.

When the missile was being reloaded, the hypersonic missile was actually launched from Iran and only took 7 minutes before hitting the target. This brief time gap of just a few minutes seems to have created a "gap" in Israel's air defense system.

In addition, the anticipation of the 300 missile attacks was not carried out by NATO aircraft and ships as was done in October 2024. At that time, although there were three hundred Iranian missile-drone "packages", some were destroyed in the air before reaching Israeli skies by NATO fighter jets and missiles.

This situation occurred because when the Israeli attack on Iran took place, NATO fighter jets and warships were not on alert as they were during the crisis on October 2, 2024. At that time, it was recorded that the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy played a role in intercepting Iranian missiles. In contrast, the deployment of fighter jets by France and the United Kingdom only occurred two days after the attack, which was able to penetrate Tel Aviv.

Iran claims to possess hypersonic missiles such as Fattah, which have high penetration and precision capabilities. The Iranian news agency, IRNA, reported on Friday (9/8/2024) that the IRGC announced the addition of new military systems to the IRGC Navy. With a total of 2,654 units, the new systems include long-range and medium-range missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles for combat and reconnaissance, as well as electronic warfare units. These missiles feature advanced new capabilities, including high-explosive warheads and radar evasion.

This time, there is a notable difference in the attack: Iran has indeed utilized the advanced hypersonic missile Fattah (Persian: conqueror), which has recently been a topic of discussion among NATO military experts and the Israeli military itself. Concerns regarding the sophistication of the Fattah hypersonic missile are reflected in a report from the European military website, Defence Industry, dated June 8, 2023, and analyzed by Israeli military observer journalist, Arie Egozi.

Unlike the accusations from Western countries that Iran has obtained missile technology from countries such as Russia or North Korea, Iran appears to have successfully developed missile technology, particularly hypersonic technology, in a more independent manner. So far, only China and Russia are considered to have established hypersonic technology in their missile arsenals. Russia has demonstrated this by launching various types of hypersonic missiles in the war with Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Iran seems to be somewhat less trusted by the West to quickly achieve hypersonic technology. In fact, the Iranian research and development (R&D) agency has produced the Fattah hypersonic missile, which is entirely made in Iran. Fattah is not a replica or copy of other designs as has often been suspected, at least in terms of its hypersonic rocket technology. Instead of copying other countries, Iran appears to have successfully narrowed the technological gap with both Russia and Western nations.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran actually showcased the Fattah hypersonic ballistic missile for the first time on June 6, 2023. The first stage of the Fattah missile was developed from the Khaibar Shekan missile, which was then further developed into the Khorramshahr missile and is regarded as a 'new generation' missile in the field of Iranian missile technology.

The missile has a diameter of approximately 1 meter and a length of about 15.3 meters. At that time, by Israeli missile experts, Fattah was classified as a hypersonic missile, due to its ability to soar above speeds of 5 mach (6,500 km/h), even reaching 15 mach in the stratosphere.

The Fattah missile has a takeoff weight of about 12 tons, including almost 9 tons of fuel. At the stage of re-entry into the atmosphere from the stratosphere, the missile will release its pointed tip and function to "return to Earth" or a 1-ton reentry vehicle - RV, and a warhead weighing between 350 and 450 kg. A warhead that heavy is enough to be given various types of explosives, including nuclear explosives.

The Fattah missile re-enters the atmosphere/trophosphere using a guidance and navigation system based on the Inertial Navigation Unit (INU) and the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), which includes GPS and GLONASS. The level of circular Error Probable (CEP) or aiming accuracy achieved with navigation guidance is between 10 and 25 meters, with the condition of a high explosive fragmentation (HEF) type warhead.

The Reentry Vehicle (RV) is equipped with a robust rocket motor similar to the kick motor used in satellite launchers, particularly the Arash-24. The RV includes four control fins to manage the missile during the boost phase and reentry.

Kheibar Shekan and Khorramshahr are third-generation long-range missiles of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which utilize solid fuel and possess maneuverability during the landing phase to bypass missile shields. The operational radius of Kheibar Shekan exceeds 1,400 kilometers with very high maneuverability, while the Khorramshahr missile has a range of 2,000 kilometers.

The Fattah missile appears to have been developed to have a range equivalent to that of the Khorramshahr missile, posing a tangible threat to Israel and even to Europe. In the attack on October 2, 2024, it was evident that the range of the Fattah missile has surpassed the 1,800 km distance between Iran and Israel.

U.S. space devices such as defense satellites can detect missile launches but cannot provide predictions of the impact point/target of the missile. Throughout all phases of flight, including the rocket RV burn and 3D RV maneuvers, there is potential to disrupt the capabilities of Western ballistic missile defense systems.

During the ballistic phase, the Fattah missile is expected to use a low-altitude trajectory, which will limit the range of ground radars and electro-optical sensors due to the line-of-sight (LOS) geometry. During the pull-up maneuver, the RV reaches an altitude of about 15 km, most sensors not located near the target point may lose line of sight to the RV target. The pull-down maneuver, which involves high-G (gravity) maneuver, can also fool the tracking capabilities of the Iron Dome.

The overall capability of the Fattah missile with its unique hypersonic capability has once again surprised Israel and the West, forcing the air defense scenario to be adjusted. The Iron Dome system and the Patriot system must develop software and tracking-intercept capabilities, or aggressively destroy the Fattah in place as soon as it is launched.

With the ability to penetrate the layered network of Israel's air defense dome, it is strongly suspected that the hypersonic missiles currently used by Iran have been improved in various aspects. They are faster, more sophisticated in targeting enemy objectives, and have a greater explosive power. (KOMPAS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT)