“Master's Meal Weapon”, Trump's Tariffs on China

The United States and China are once again involved in a trade war. This time it could be more intense. U.S. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 10 percent tariff on goods from China. In response, China retaliated with tariffs as well, including a 15 percent tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas products, and a 10 percent tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine cars. These retaliatory tariffs from China could make it more difficult for certain U.S. manufacturers to export products to China because their products will become more expensive.

China's retaliatory tariffs will take effect on February 10, 2025. Time magazine, on Friday (February 7, 2025), mentioned that the new tariffs imposed by China are feared to harm small towns in US states such as North Dakota, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia. These are the very states that helped Trump win the 2024 election.

Senior researcher at the Brookings Institution, Mark Muro, explained that the US-China competition will have a significant impact on the US. The study from the institution revealed that densely populated cities such as Houston and Detroit are the most affected. "The greatest impact of these tariffs will be felt in rural areas where industries contribute the majority of the local economy," he said.

Overall, the Brookings Institution report found that nearly two-thirds of jobs potentially affected by China's retaliatory tariffs are located in areas that voted for Trump. This contrasts with the retaliatory tariffs imposed by China in 2018, during Trump's first administration.

This time, around 400,000 to 700,000 jobs in the US are feared to be affected by China's retaliatory tariffs. These jobs are related to the automotive, petroleum, and construction equipment industries. "If factories have to reduce their production, local jobs will definitely be impacted," said one of the authors of the Brookings study, Rob Maxim.

In a previous study conducted in January 2024, it was found that the US-China trade war in 2018-2019 also impacted the economies of regions leaning towards the Republican Party, including industrial Midwest states such as Ohio and Indiana, as well as southern manufacturing-oriented states like North Carolina.

Even so, residents living in areas affected by tariffs tended to choose Trump in the 2020 election. "For Trump supporters, they are only interested in the appeal of Trump appearing to be doing something," said Maxim.

The President of the West Virginia Coal Association, Chris Hamilton, acknowledges that local coal miners could be affected by China's retaliatory tariffs. However, this will not affect the association's support for Trump.

The US does not export coal in large quantities, but almost half of it comes from West Virginia. The Trump administration has long promised to reverse the Democratic Party's policies that seek to wean the US power grid off coal.

China has long suspected that the Trump administration would be tough on China. In addition to the increasingly fierce trade war, the technology war, and the confrontation over Taiwan are also getting stronger. Therefore, China is already preparing for the coming storm. Foreign Affairs magazine, Thursday (6/2/2025), said that China has adapted its approach to the US.

Over the past three months, China has developed strategies to anticipate, counter and minimize the damage from Trump’s volatile policies. It has quietly shored up its domestic economy and strengthened its foreign relations, especially with its neighbors and developing countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Oceania.

China’s cooperation with countries in the Southern Hemisphere that offer backdoor access to the US market has been strengthened. As tariffs and supply chain disruptions cut off direct US-China trade, more trade is now conducted indirectly.

The way China’s materials and parts for products exported to the US are now being manufactured or assembled in countries other than China. As a result, China’s trade surplus will reach nearly $1 trillion by 2024.

The fastest growing export markets include Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam acting as intermediaries by processing Chinese materials, and exporting finished goods to the US.

It is possible that Trump will “punish” third-party countries for cooperating with China, as happened with Panama. However, China’s economic relations with the countries punished by the US will not be damaged. In fact, Italy, which withdrew from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in December 2023, continues to trade actively with China.

For many countries in the south, economic cooperation with China is still tempting. And for poor countries, China has become a hope after the US - the world's largest donor - suspended its development aid. The suspension halted US-funded projects in about 130 countries.

Trump’s decision jeopardizes global efforts to combat poverty, hunger, disease, drug control and conflict. For Democratic Senator Andy Kim, it’s not just about charity but about preserving American influence in a risky situation. “USAID (the U.S. Agency for International Development) is one of our best tools to counter China’s financial and economic influence,” he said.

With the BRI, China is trying to unite more than 145 countries through joint mega-projects such as bridges, roads and ports. China's Foreign Ministry report in 2024 described US development assistance as selfish, arrogant, hypocritical and ugly, and deliberately interfered in other countries' internal affairs for its own benefit.

“US foreign aid has serious negative impacts on world peace and development,” the report said.

According to Evan Cooper, who leads the “Reimagining US Diplomacy” project at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, the struggle for influence between the US and China is not a zero-sum game in which one wins and the other loses. If USAID collapses, China will not become a major influence in the world.

A freeze on aid could undermine all development aid but it does not mean that China will step in to fill the gap. China will try to secure sales markets, create dependencies, and strengthen its appeal in international negotiations.

In addition, Chinese leaders also believe that China will be able to replace the US as the world's leading power. For China, Trump's policies will destroy the foundation of US global hegemony. When the US is weak, that is where China has the opportunity to expand its influence faster and replace the US.