RI Rice Stocks Are Abundant, Several Rice Exporting Countries Are "Anxious"

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – The government's rice reserves at Perum Bulog have reached 3.7 million tons. This rice stock is the highest in the last 58 years and surpasses the rice stock when Indonesia achieved rice self-sufficiency in 1984.

The abundance of rice stocks in Indonesia has also caused discomfort among several rice-exporting countries, such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar. These countries have begun to diversify their rice export destinations.

The Ministry of Agriculture recorded that as of May 13, 2025, the government's rice stock at Bulog reached 3.7 million tons. Of this amount, 2.02 million tons of rice were sourced from domestic paddy/rice absorption, while the remainder consisted of imported rice from 2024.

Minister of Agriculture Andi Amran Sulaiman, on Tuesday (13/5/2025), appreciated the performance of Bulog, which was able to absorb rice paddy/rice domestically amounting to 2.02 million tons in less than five months. By the end of May 2025, the government's rice stock is expected to reach 4 million tons.

"This is an extraordinary achievement resulting from the hard work of relevant stakeholders, such as farmers, Bulog, rice milling partners, as well as the central and regional governments. The stock of 3.7 million tons of rice is not just a number, but a concrete proof of the state's commitment to farmers and the food system from upstream to downstream," said Amran in a press release in Jakarta.

Bulog is able to absorb 2.02 million tons of domestic grain/rice in less than five months.

In 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture targets rice production to reach 32 million tons. To achieve this, the Ministry is working to create new rice fields and optimize agricultural land, accelerate rice planting, and increase the quota for subsidized fertilizers starting in 2024.

President Prabowo Subianto even issued a government purchase price policy (HPP) for Harvested Dry Paddy (GKP) at the farmer level without fractionation and any quality (without special quality standards) of at least IDR 6,500 per kg. This policy does not only apply to Perum Bulog, but also to all rice milling business actors.

The policy is outlined in Presidential Instruction (Inpres) Number 6 of 2025 concerning the Procurement and Management of Domestic Rice and the Distribution of Government Rice Reserves (CBP). Specifically regarding CBP, the President has also mandated a target for domestic rice procurement in 2025 of 3 million tons.

Amran added that the government's rice stock in Bulog, which reaches 3.7 million tons, is the highest in the last 58 years or since Bulog was established in 1967. The volume of this stock also surpasses the achievement of food self-sufficiency in 1984 during President Soeharto's era. At that time, the government's rice stock reached 3.007 million tons.

Based on the results of the March 2025 Rice Sample Area Framework, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) estimates that Indonesia's rice production from January to June 2025 will reach 1.89 million tons. This estimated rice production represents an increase of 11.17 percent compared to January to June 2024.

Furthermore, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Indonesia's rice production in 2025 could reach 34.6 million tons. In comparison, the potential rice production of Vietnam is 26.5 million tons, Thailand 20.1 million tons, the Philippines 12 million tons, Cambodia 7.37 million tons, Laos 1.81 million tons, and Malaysia 1.75 million tons.

On May 2, 2025, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that global rice production in 2024/2025 would increase by 1.5 percent year-on-year to 543.6 million tons. This production estimate exceeds the global rice consumption requirement in 2025, which is 539.4 million tons.

Global rice reserves in 2024/2025 are also expected to increase by 3.1 percent to 205.7 million tons. This is primarily supported by an increase in production and rice stocks in China, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

The increase in rice production in Indonesia and globally has caused Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar to feel "uneasy." These three rice-producing and exporting countries are pressured by declining exports and rice prices. In fact, Myanmar is expected to experience a decrease in rice production.

According to BPS data, Indonesia's rice imports in 2024 reached 4.52 million tons, the highest in the last seven years. The largest sources of rice imports for Indonesia are Thailand at 1.36 million tons (30.19 percent), Vietnam at 1.25 million tons (27.62 percent), and Myanmar at 831,380 tons (18.4 percent).

In Thailand, rice exports for the 2024/2025 marketing year are projected to decline by 24 percent to 7.5 million tons. Furthermore, the lower price of Indian rice has caused the country's rice exports in the first quarter of 2025 to plummet by 30 percent to 2.1 million tons.

This situation has triggered a decrease in rice prices at the farmer level in Thailand by approximately 30 percent. To address this, the Thai government is inviting India and Vietnam to stabilize global rice prices and protect local farmers.

In Vietnam, the country's rice exports for 2024/2025 are also predicted to decline by 17 percent year-on-year to 7.5 million tons. Currently, Vietnam is striving to expand its export markets to several countries in the Middle East and Africa, as well as promoting premium rice exports to survive amid tight price competition.

In Myanmar, the country's rice production in 2024/2025 is also expected to decline by 3 percent year-on-year to 11.85 million tons. However, despite the potential loss of one of its main markets, namely Indonesia, the Myanmar Rice Federation is optimistic that rice exports in 2024/2025 could reach 2.48 million tons.

The growth of new rice markets, such as Russia, has become one of its supports. Previously, in 2023/2024, Myanmar's rice exports only reached 1.6 million tons out of a target of 2.5 million tons.

Meanwhile, although it is not the largest rice importing country for Indonesia, Cambodia has stated that it has lost an important market because Indonesia is no longer importing rice. This was expressed by Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen during a meeting with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta on May 5, 2025.

In that meeting, Hun Sen also stated that the increase in rice production in Indonesia would impact the regional market. Currently, Cambodia is trying to find new markets in several countries in Europe and East Asia, although it must compete with India and Vietnam.

In Malaysia, on May 6, 2025, the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security of Malaysia, Mohamad Sabu, expressed concerns that the conflict between India and Pakistan would impact food supplies, including rice, in Malaysia. So far, approximately 38 percent of Malaysia's imports of parboiled and basmati rice come from that country.

"We hope that the war between the two countries does not continue. However, we will cooperate with Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia to ensure that rice in this country is safe," he stated (Bernama, 6/5/2025).