Türkiye, a Potential Partner for European Security Architecture

ANKARA, THURSDAY - Due to the United States attempting to control the global narrative, geopolitical movements are becoming increasingly dynamic. The world is beginning to establish new points of balance. In Europe, Turkey has now emerged as a potential key alternative partner in restructuring Europe's security architecture.

Europe is currently struggling to strengthen its defenses while supporting Ukraine. In addition to the idea of France becoming Europe's nuclear umbrella, European countries are forming a coalition of the willing to support Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The effort emerged following a shift in the stance of the United States under the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump tended to disregard the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or NATO and demonstrated a tendency to side with Russia in peace negotiations for the Ukraine-Russia War.

Europe is now requesting greater participation from Turkey as a NATO member. On Wednesday (12/3/2025), Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.

During the visit, Tusk touched on Ankara's role in peace in Ukraine and regional stability. Currently, Poland holds the position of rotating presidency of the EU.

"I submitted a clear proposal to President Erdogan: that Turkey should take on the greatest possible responsibility in the peace process, in ensuring stability and security throughout our entire region," said Tusk.

A European diplomat stated that it is crucial for Turkey to take part in the Ukraine-Russia issue. Erdogan's interests align with those of Europe at present, as Turkey no longer has dynamics with Russia regarding Syria. Previously, Russia supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was later overthrown by rebels backed by Turkey in 2024.

"So, at a certain point, it is coincidental for Turkey to play a greater role in ensuring Europe's future, particularly for Ukraine," said the diplomat without mentioning a name.

As mentioned, Europe is trying everything to maintain regional security and peace. Europe is also discussing the discourse of changing the European nuclear umbrella. So far, the US, which has more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, has been Europe's nuclear umbrella. As the only EU member with nuclear weapons, there is a discourse that France with 290 nuclear warheads will become Europe's nuclear deterrent.

In addition, earlier this month, Britain and France proposed forming a coalition of the willing. The coalition would develop plans to offer support to Ukraine if a peace deal is reached to end the Ukraine-Russia war, including by deploying peacekeeping troops in Ukraine.

Some observers say Europe’s efforts have created a rare opportunity for Turkey to deepen ties with the continent despite ongoing differences over the rule of law, maritime issues with Greece and Cyprus, and the delay in Turkey’s EU accession application.

“European countries that thought they had the luxury of excluding Turkey are now realizing they can no longer exclude Turkey,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM).

A Turkish Defense Ministry official said Ankara and Europe share common interests, including countering terrorism and migration, and that Türkiye's full participation in EU defense is essential.

According to the official, Türkiye is ready to contribute to supporting the establishment of a new security framework. As a NATO member, Türkiye has the second-largest army in the alliance.

Türkiye has started producing its own jets, tanks and aircraft carriers in recent years. Ankara sells armed drones globally, including to Ukraine. Türkiye's defense industry exports are expected to reach $7.1 billion by 2024.

However, observers see Türkiye's attitude toward Ukraine and Russia as something to be noted. Erdogan managed to balance relations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the war.

“The fundamental question that Türkiye will face is the issue of relations with Russia because the very nature of the European security framework starts with viewing Russia as a threat,” Ulgen said.

Ulgen said Ankara must define a clear position on Russia, otherwise it will be difficult for Türkiye to take on a bigger security role.

Turkey has provided military support and voiced support for territorial sovereignty for Ukraine. It also hosted peace talks at the start of the war and has offered to host future talks. Turkey has welcomed Ukraine's plans to join NATO, an idea opposed by Russia.

Meanwhile, Turkey has continued to refuse to impose sanctions on Russia after the war lasted for the past three years. Turkey's stance is different from many Western countries that have imposed many economic sanctions on Russia. Until now, Turkey and Russia are still cooperating in the energy, tourism and trade sectors.

Last week, a Turkish Defense Ministry source said Türkiye could consider contributing to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached.

Turkish Armed Forces Chief of Staff Metin Gurak attended a meeting with European army chiefs in Paris, France, this week, where they also discussed the deployment plans.

On Wednesday (12/3/2025), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he hoped Moscow would “respond constructively” to a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv has accepted the proposal.

"We consider Ukraine's acceptance of the ceasefire as positive and important. We now expect Russia to respond constructively," Erdogan said at a joint press conference with Tusk.

Erdogan continued, Türkiye's stance on the war has been clear from the beginning. Ankara does not want bloodshed and hopes that the two neighboring countries will end the war with a just peace. He again proposed that Türkiye host the peace talks.

Erdogan and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have stated that Europe must involve Türkiye in restructuring the security architecture in a “sustainable and preventive” manner.

A Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was no clear plan for a new European security architecture or Türkiye’s possible contribution to it, but that certain steps could advance cooperation between the two sides.

“Rather than involving Turkey in projects in an ‘a la carte’ way, it would be more logical for Europe to seek partnerships in a more holistic way. For example, they could start by involving Turkey in the European Peace Facility programme,” the official said, referring to the EU’s initiative supporting Ukraine. (AFP/Reuters)