Ukraine, Security Assurances and European Readiness

Russia and Ukraine are requesting security guarantees as one of the conditions for peace or at least a ceasefire. What exactly are the security guarantees desired by these two neighboring countries currently at war?

"We will demand that strong security guarantees be part of this agreement. Part of these guarantees should be the neutral status of Ukraine, the refusal of NATO countries to accept it into the alliance," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia on Monday (17/3/2025).

Grushko continued, Europe must understand that rejecting Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has positive implications. Similarly, the elimination of the possibility of deploying foreign troops in Ukraine is beneficial. "Thus, Ukraine's security and the broader region will be guaranteed because one of the root causes of the conflict will be removed," he stated.

If Ukraine asks for allied troops to be on its territory, Russia has no right to accept or refuse.

The United States has proposed a 30-day ceasefire for the Ukraine-Russia War. So far, Russia has set several conditions to accept the ceasefire, while Ukraine has agreed to the proposal.

The U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, stated that a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia could be reached within a few weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump is set to hold positive discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday (18/3/2025).

"This is a very complex situation, but we are bridging the gap between both parties. President Trump truly hopes there will be an agreement in the coming weeks, perhaps, and I am confident that is what will happen," said one of the U.S. negotiators for the Russia-Ukraine peace process.

Several U.S. officials have indicated that Ukraine may need to make some significant concessions if an agreement is to be reached. U.S. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz stated that Ukraine might have to abandon its aspirations to become a NATO member in the future. Ukraine may also have to cede some territory to Russia.

On the other hand, according to Witkoff, it is too early to discuss U.S. recognition of Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. Moreover, future peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will be complicated as they involve various topics.

The topics include the cessation of fighting along the 2,000-kilometer border and Ukraine's attacks on Kursk in Russia. There is also a need to discuss the fate of Ukraine's nuclear reactors currently controlled by Russia. Equally important is the issue of access to Black Sea ports.

As reported by RBC-Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in late February 2025 emphasized that a just peace can only be achieved with clear security guarantees. This will prevent the conflict from recurring.

According to him, NATO membership is the most effective way to ensure peace and stability in Ukraine and Europe. However, since some NATO members oppose Ukraine's accession, security guarantees could come in the form of funding a Ukrainian military with a strength of at least 800,000 troops.

Zelenskyy also supports the deployment of European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, including to prevent future Russian attacks.

"The contingent must be deployed on Ukrainian soil. This is a security guarantee for Ukraine and a security guarantee for Europe. It is not Putin's business to decide anything about the security of Ukraine and Europe," he wrote on social media.

In addition, he stressed the need for economic guarantees, including Ukraine's accession to the European Union. On March 15, 2025, Zelenskyy again urged allies to provide certainty about security guarantees.

Zelenskyy urged European leaders to ignore Putin’s rejection of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, accusing Putin of hampering peace efforts. “A ceasefire could have happened, but Russia is doing everything it can to prevent it,” he said.

Ukraine also considers Türkiye a partner in security guarantees. Kyiv is ready to ratify a free trade agreement with Ankara.

Türkiye, which is not a NATO member, has maintained good relations with Ukraine and Russia. For Ukraine, Türkiye sends military aid and supports its territorial integrity.

Zelenskyy's wishes have been given the green light by Europe and several allied countries. Europe formed a coalition of the willing to support Ukraine during the war. This coalition emerged after Europe saw the US's tendency to support Russia.

Ahead of a virtual meeting with the coalition on Saturday (15/3/2025), French President Emmanuel Macron outlined several possible missions for the supporting forces in Ukraine. He said the French and British blueprint did not aim to deploy large numbers of troops.

In contrast, the troop contingents will consist of several thousand troops per country. They will be stationed at key locations. The troop missions will include training programs and support for Ukraine's defense.

Macron continued, such troop deployment does not require Russian approval. "Ukraine is sovereign. If Ukraine asks for allied troops to be on its territory, Russia has no right to accept or refuse. Under no circumstances can Ukraine make territorial concessions without security guarantees," Macron was quoted as saying by Le Parisien.

Moscow has strongly opposed the deployment. “It does not matter under what label the NATO contingent will be deployed on the territory of Ukraine: be it the European Union, NATO, or in a national capacity. If they appear there, it means that they are deployed in the conflict zone with all the consequences for this contingent as a party to the conflict,” Grushko said.

In addition, Grushko argued, the deployment of unarmed post-conflict observers can only be discussed after a peace agreement is reached.

Alexandr Burilkov, a researcher at Heidelberg University’s Institute of Political Science (IPW), said the threat of Russian aggression was real. “The Russian military is bigger and better today than it was on February 24, 2022. Russia has hostile intentions towards the Baltic states and the eastern side of the European Union,” he said.

According to Burilkov's study for the Bruegel think tank in Belgium and the Kiel Institute in Germany, Europe may need 300,000 more troops to deter Russian aggression. There are currently 1.47 million military personnel on active duty.

After the Cold War, most European countries ended compulsory military service. Only Greece, Cyprus, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway and Türkiye continue to have it.

Lithuania reintroduced conscription in 2015, Sweden in 2017, and Latvia in 2023. Given the political and economic costs, France, Germany, Britain, Italy, and Poland, NATO's biggest spenders in Europe, are unlikely to introduce conscription.

However, Poland plans to offer the program to 100,000 civilians with incentives annually by 2027. Meanwhile, German Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz is keen on introducing a year-long national service for young people.

Britain, France and Italy have ruled out conscription. They are looking at solutions, such as increasing defense spending, encouraging young people to enlist or creating reserve forces.

The Nordic and Baltic countries, especially Finland and Sweden, can serve as role models for Western European countries. Finland, which borders Russia, has the largest reserve army in Europe.

"The East-West divide is still a problem. Few people in Western Europe are willing to fight. There is also a correlation between whether people see the war as something that can be won and whether they want to serve, so a drastic increase in European military capabilities would make people more confident," Burilkov said. (AP/AFP/REUTERS)