Tinkering with Indonesia's Chances of Qualifying for the World Cup

The Garuda squad is under great pressure after losing 2-3 to Saudi Arabia in the first match of Group B of the fourth round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The disappointing result at the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Thursday (9/10/2025), also almost closed the last chance for the Garuda squad to get a ticket to the World Cup through the inter-confederation playoff route.

Quo vadis the Garuda squad? Where will they go? Not yet known, because even a victory over Iraq in the second Group B match, Sunday (12/10/2025) early morning WIB, might not be enough for Indonesia to secure one of the two remaining spots in the AFC zone.

To understand the position of the team coached by Patrick Kluivert, it is necessary to examine the FIFA World Cup 2026 Preliminary Competition regulations published in June 2023. Indonesia's difficult situation is reflected in Chapter Three, Article 11, Paragraphs 5a-5i, which govern the ranking of teams within the group.

In league format, the rankings in each group are determined as follows:

a. The greatest number of points obtained in all group matches

b. Highest goal difference in all group matches

c.  Most goals scored in all group matches

If two or more teams are equal based on the three criteria above, their ranking will be determined as follows:

d.  The greatest number of points obtained in group matches between the teams concerned

e.  The highest goal difference resulting from group matches between the teams concerned

f.  The highest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned

g.  The highest number of goals scored away from home by the team in question

h. The highest team behavior score related to the number of yellow and red cards for players and team officials in all group matches is considered based on the following deductions:

• First yellow card: 1 point deducted

• Second yellow card/indirect red card: 3 points deducted

• Direct red card: 4 points deducted

• Yellow card and direct red card: 5 points deducted

Only one of the reductions mentioned above will be applied to players in a single match. The team with the highest points will receive the highest ranking.

i.  Draw by FIFA in collaboration with the confederation

Point "g" is not used in the match format that takes place in one country or a neutral venue, such as in the ongoing qualification for the fourth round of the 2025 World Cup in the AFC zone.

From the team ranking rules in the group, Indonesia is clearly in a tight position, as it has not yet earned points with a goal difference of minus one. Therefore, the main requirement to maintain Indonesia's chances of qualifying for Canada, Mexico, and the United States is to win against Iraq by a large goal difference.

However, even if Indonesia wins against Iraq, a ticket to the World Cup may not necessarily be secured by Jay Idzes and his teammates. This is because Indonesia still has to wait for the result of the final match in Group B between Saudi Arabia and Iraq on Wednesday (15/10/2025) early morning WIB.

If Iraq loses, Saudi Arabia will top Group B and receive a ticket to the final round of the 2026 World Cup. If the match ends in a draw, Saudi Arabia will also advance to the final round of the World Cup.

If Iraq wins, all three teams in Group B will have the same points, three. In this situation, Article 11 Paragraph 5a-i above will be used to determine who is entitled to a ticket to the final round of the 2026 World Cup. Therefore, winning by a large goal difference could be a lifesaver.

A scenario that could see Indonesia qualify is for the Garuda squad to win against Iraq by a large margin, and for Saudi Arabia to lose to Iraq by a narrow margin. If Indonesia finishes second in Group B, it will advance to the fifth round, against the runner-up of Group A in the AFC zone's fourth qualifying round. The winner of the fourth round will advance to the inter-confederation playoffs.

This playoff round is the last chance for six teams from the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, and OFC zones to experience the world stage of football. Participants in this playoff round are the winner of the fifth round of the AFC zone, the winner of the second round of the CAF zone, the two runners-up teams of the third round of the CONCACAF zone, the seventh-placed team of CONMEBOL, and the second-placed team of the third round of the OFC zone. The representative of CONMEBOL is Bolivia, and the representative of Oceania or OFC is New Caledonia.

However, once again, the first and most important capital for Indonesia to maintain its chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is to win against Iraq. This is a significant challenge, as the record of encounters does not favor the Garuda squad.

Kluivert stated that the defeat to Saudi Arabia was indeed disappointing, but the Indonesian players must quickly prepare to face the next match against Iraq. "We are very disappointed, but with a score of 3-2, we left the field with our heads held high because in three days we have another match. We need to clear our minds and try to play well against Iraq," said the Dutch coach as quoted by Reuters.

Indonesia has always lost to Iraq in the two meetings of the second round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The Garuda team, which was still coached by Shin Tae-yong at that time, lost 1-5 in the away match in Basra, Iraq, before subsequently losing 0-2 while playing at home in Jakarta.

If Indonesia loses, it will once again be a spectator at the World Cup. Then the classic question arises: what is the status of Indonesian football?