It's Not the Rain That Kills

In many areas of Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra, the mud has not yet dried when we must count the victims of floods and landslides, with at least 631 fatalities and hundreds of people missing on Tuesday (2/12/2025). Cyclone Senyar unleashed extreme rainfall of up to 411 millimeters in 24 hours, a volume that exceeds the average for an entire month.

However, if we stop at the anomaly of rain, we miss the main cause of this disaster. These hundreds of deaths are not solely due to the weather, but rather the result of accumulated political decisions that place citizens on the brink of danger.

First of all, we must change the erroneous definition of natural disasters, as still adhered to by the National Disaster Management Agency and Law Number 24 of 2007.

It is stated that natural disasters are events caused by nature, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and landslides.

This interpretation is what leads the officials of this country to feel no responsibility for the casualties in every disaster that could have been prevented.

In fact, the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) emphasizes that there are no such things as natural disasters. Natural hazards, such as storms, earthquakes, or tsunamis, become disasters only when they strike unprotected communities.

In the words of Chester Hartman and Gregory D Squires in There is No Such Thing as a Natural Disaster(2006), “disasters are always social and political constructions.”

Floods and landslides in Sumatra this time clearly demonstrate that poor environmental governance and misguided political decisions have increased the risks faced by communities in dealing with the climate crisis.

Let us revisit the recording of President Prabowo Subianto's speech from some time ago for clarification. "In the future, we must increase palm oil planting," said President Prabowo Subianto during the National Development Planning Consultation (Musrenbang) of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) on December 30, 2024.

"Don't be afraid, they say it's dangerous, deforestation. It's called palm oil, right? It's a tree, it has leaves, doesn't it? It absorbs carbon dioxide," said the President, met with laughter and applause from the ministers and other officials.

The statement reflects our leaders' undervaluation of the function of forests, while also demonstrating a failure to understand the unique landscape of this country. The remarks made by the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadila in June 2025 amplify this misconception.

He stated that developed countries also "deforested and mined to achieve progress," thus Indonesia is entitled to follow the same path.

Indonesia is not a flat land. Indonesia is a young volcanic archipelago, characterized by steep slopes and filled with fragile soil that is prone to erosion. In such a landscape, forests are not merely green ornaments, but rather a vital ecological infrastructure that supports water, holds soil, regulates river flow, and mitigates extreme tropical weather.

Mining can have more fatal impacts, especially if opened upstream. Geomorphological studies indicate that changes in topography due to open-pit mining trigger an increase in sediment by up to several times during the rainy season. Fragile slopes become mud channels ready to collapse when extreme rainfall occurs.

Oil palm clearly cannot replace the ecological functions of tropical forests. Monoculture and homogeneous oil palm plantations lack the diversity of canopy structure and root layers necessary to withstand extreme rainfall, even increasing surface runoff.

A May 2024 report by Briantama Asmara and Timothy O Randhi in Science of the Total Environment showed how oil palm plantations in Kais, West Papua, have increased surface water runoff, sediment, and pollutant loads from fertilizers and pesticides, such as nitrogen and phosphorus.

Many other studies have reported environmental and social destruction in Indonesia due to the expansion of palm oil into forests, and this has not only occurred in this era. The development model that devastates the environment has been inherited from regime to regime.

According to data from Walhi, in the last decade, approximately 1.4 million hectares of forest have been lost in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra, driven by hundreds of mining, palm oil permits, and Forest Area Utilization Approvals (PPKH) that legalize the conversion of protected forests.

Indeed, cyclones do trigger rainfall. However, the floodwaters that submerge villages and cities do not originate from the clouds. These floodwaters primarily come from our environment, which has had its carrying capacity weakened.

As reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 (2022) study, the vulnerability to hydrometeorological disasters in Southeast Asia is increasing not only due to rainfall intensity, but also due to the loss of protective ecosystems.

When the state facilitates mining permits upstream, and when palm oil is massively allowed to replace primary forests, the state is essentially shifting the risks onto the shoulders of the residents downstream. This is a concrete example of maladaptation, where development actually undermines the community's ability to adapt to climate change.

Thus, cyclones do indeed trigger rain. However, the floodwaters that submerge villages and cities do not come from the clouds. The water primarily originates from our environment, which has had its carrying capacity weakened.

As the threat intensifies, the capacity to face it has not been strengthened. The early warning of tropical cyclones issued by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) was not followed by early action from the government, especially at the regional level. This clarifies that this disaster is not merely a matter of unpreparedness, but rather a result of misguided development and priorities.

Disaster sociologist Anthony Oliver-Smith in The Angry Earth(1999) calls it “the social production of disaster.” Disasters are created through political-economic decisions that determine who survives and who is sacrificed.

To the media, officials can blame the weather, and in front of the cameras, a minister can be seen carrying rice for the refugees. However, the public will not forget that he is the one who has been liberal in granting permits for deforestation in this country.

In the end, residents who lifted the bodies of their family members from the mud must remember that this disaster did not come from the sky, but from policies that marginalize the safety of the people. The rain is merely a trigger. It is the destroyed ecological structure that has caused the high number of casualties.