Ministry of Transportation Projects Number of Eid Homecoming Travelers to Reach 146.48 Million People

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – The Ministry of Transportation projects the number of Eid al-Fitr travelers in 2025 to reach 146.48 million people. Inter-provincial travel within Java is expected to dominate during the upcoming Eid al-Fitr exodus. Nationally, the peak of the exodus is anticipated to occur three days before Eid al-Fitr, on Friday, March 28, 2025.

In a survey on potential national movement conducted by the Ministry of Transportation (Kemenhub), the majority of respondents, or 62.6 percent, traveled out of town and abroad to celebrate Eid al-Fitr. The travelers were predominantly residents from provinces in Java, accounting for 66.6 percent, namely West Java, East Java, and Central Java.

The number is equivalent to 97.6 million people projected to undertake inter-provincial and intra-provincial travel. The most popular destinations are Central Java (36.6 million), East Java (27.4 million), followed by West Java (22.1 million).

The projection for movement during Eid 2025 is 24.4 percent lower compared to 2024. At that time, the government projected that 193.6 million travelers would journey during Eid 2024. In reality, community mobility was recorded at 162.2 million people during the same period.

Minister of Transportation Dudy Purwagandhi, during a hearing with Commission V of the House of Representatives (DPR RI) in Jakarta, stated that the peak day of the homecoming exodus is expected to occur three days before Eid or on H-3. It is projected that approximately 11.5 percent or 16.85 million people will be traveling.

"Private cars are the mode of transportation with the highest share (proportion) of 4.21 million with the origin of the trip being Jabodetabek with the destination of the trip being Central Java, East Java, and West Java," said Dudy, Tuesday (11/3/2025).

In a meeting chaired by the Chairman of Commission V of the House of Representatives, Lasarus, several other officials were also present. Among them were the Minister of Public Works, Dody Hanggodo; the Head of Operations Division of the Traffic Corps (Korlantas) of the National Police, Commissioner Aris Syahbudin; and the Head of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Dwikorita Karnawati. Leaders of national airlines were also in attendance.

The primary choice of respondents in selecting transportation modes during the 2025 Eid holiday is still dominated by private vehicles. In order of preference, the main options for the public are private cars (23 percent), buses (16.9 percent), trains (16.1 percent), airplanes (13.5 percent), and motorcycles (8.7 percent).

In order to reduce traffic congestion ahead of Eid, the government is implementing a work from anywhere (WFA) scheme. This policy will apply to state civil servants (ASN). The government also appealed to the private sector to implement this policy for its workers.

In the Ministry of Transportation's scheme, when the WFA policy is implemented from March 24 to April 8, 2025, the shift in departure patterns will begin from seven to five days before Eid. Conversely, during the return flow without WFA, a significant surge in return traffic will occur on the fifth day after Eid, or April 6, 2025.

"The potential for private car congestion will occur on all toll roads, both in Java and outside Java, especially on the Trans Java toll road," said Dudy.

During the return flow, there will be a surge in movement, especially since the WFA policy has so far only been decided to be valid for four days, namely March 24, 2025 to March 27, 2025. As a result, the Ministry of Transportation is still trying to coordinate with the relevant ministries so that the WFA can also be implemented during the return.

According to data from the Indonesian National Police Traffic Corps, the number of accidents in 2024 compared to 2023 did decrease. However, other variables in the accident figures need to be considered. The number of fatalities decreased by 12 percent, but the number of serious injuries increased by 33 percent. Accidents on toll roads increased by 44 percent.

"This is related to the increasing speed of Jakarta-Semarang (vehicles). One of the causes of accidents is the lack of distance (between vehicles)," said Aris.

In order to anticipate traffic congestion, eight priority Regional Police (Polda) in Lampung, Java, and Bali will hold Operation Ketupat earlier. Like WFA which started on March 24, 2025, Operation Ketupat will also start at that time and end on April 8, 2025. Other Polda will continue to be implemented for 14 days on March 26, 2025 to April 8, 2025.

Aris said that the toll roads that are at risk will receive special attention from the police. The toll roads in question are Cikampek, Cipali, and Cipularang; Cipali, Palikanci to Kalikangkung; Semarang-Solo; ABC Semarang; Solo-Klaten-Prambanan; and Jakarta-Merak.

Reflecting on the accident that occurred during Eid 2024, the police will continue to implement traffic engineering, but with different security. At that time, there was an accident on the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road Kilometer (Km) 58 on April 8, 2024, exactly one day before the Eid celebration. A Gran Max car traveling in the contraflow lane entered the regular lane or the opposite direction, then hit a bus. As a result, 12 people died in the incident. Contraflow is a traffic engineering system that changes the direction of vehicles in the opposite direction from the normal direction.

When investigated, the car was an "illegal vehicle" carrying passengers beyond capacity. The driver lacked rest because he had been driving the Jabodetabek-Ciamis route for four consecutive days. He was also suspected of momentarily falling asleep or microsleep (Kompas.id, 4/13/2024).

Based on the evaluation results, Aris added, the police together with PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk will engineer the distance between road dividers to be shorter, in order to separate the contraflow lane from the regular lane. In between the dividers, water dividers will be added equipped with flashing lights.

"Emergency vehicles are also brought closer (to the contraflow lane). The section that will be used for contraflow and one way must not exceed the speed of the existing section," said Aris.

The police also have the option of implementing odd-even for vehicles, when the flow of vehicles must be untangled. However, this policy is tentative, depending on the road situation.

The high mobility of society needs to be anticipated by many parties. Moreover, extreme weather conditions are predicted to still have the potential to occur in March 2025.

"In April (2025), thank God, during the return flow, the weather has improved, although there is the potential for moderate rainfall in almost all areas of Indonesia," said Dwikorita.

He regretted that sometimes people underestimate the early warnings they receive. As a result, BMKG will also be more active in disseminating the results of daily weather forecasts with more detailed and simple information on various media.

In addition to social media and YouTube channels, his party has also collaborated with a number of local governments (Pemda) to insert the latest weather information on videotrons and through sending short messages (SMS). The hope is that the community and local governments can be more alert and responsive when an early warning occurs.

The risk of tidal flooding will also occur along the north coast or Pantura on March 29, 2025, two days before Eid al-Fitr. Similar projections on the same date are also prone to occur on various beaches in Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Maluku.

Another potential is the high sea waves that need to be watched out for on the coast of the Indian Ocean, both in South Sumatra and Java. The wave height is predicted to reach 2-2.5 meters which can be dangerous for small ships, including fleets used for tourism.

Tsunami-prone zones in the underpass of the southern Kulonprogo, Yogyakarta also need the police's attention. Mitigation for opening and closing the tunnel entrance needs to be prepared, so that congestion does not occur. When that happens, vehicles passing through will be trapped in the tunnel during the tsunami evacuation.

"In conclusion, vigilance is still (needed) to be maintained, even increased, especially for us who are on standby if at any time a cyclone seed appears or even develops into a tropical storm. This can be detected 4-6 days in advance. We will continue to intensify information for mitigation," said Dwikorita.