Arsenal's Numbers, Real Madrid's Remontada Rejectors

Remontada, a Spanish term meaning turning things around. The word came up again and again after Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Real Madrid. For most clubs, losing by three goals in the first leg of a home-and-away tie would be a death sentence, but that’s not the case for Madrid, who have a remontada mantra.

It is understandable that Arsenal's squad refrains from being overly confident after securing their biggest victory at Emirates Stadium. They are managing their expectations to avoid surprises when visiting Madrid's home ground, Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, for the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals on Thursday (17/4/2025) at 2:00 AM WIB.

Arsenal midfielder Mikel Merino has spent nearly his entire career in Spain. He is very familiar with and has often faced Madrid, including visiting the Bernabeu. He stated that "El Real" seems to possess an aura to win matches under any circumstances when playing in front of their own supporters.

“That aura is generated by those who are able to turn things around time and time again. The psychological aspect is important in every game. It is even more important against Madrid because it is always the difference for them. Can Madrid come back? They have done it before. We have to anticipate,” Merino told Marca.

Not wanting to lose to the remontada spell, Arsenal came with a "charm" in the form of numbers from statistical and historical records that gave confidence on paper. The team coached by manager Mikel Arteta is almost impossible to beat by three goals or more if you look at the records.

The last time "The Gunners" conceded three goals in a match was against Luton Town in December 2023. Even then, they won 4-3. Since that match, Arsenal has not conceded more than two goals in 78 consecutive matches across all competitions.

Interestingly, William Saliba and his teammates have only conceded three goals throughout this season's Champions League, which has already spanned eight matches. Madrid must score the same number of goals in just 90 minutes without conceding. Even then, it would only take Madrid to extra time, not yet to the semifinals.

Defense has increasingly become Arsenal's greatest strength this season. In the English Premier League, they are recorded as the team with the fewest goals conceded (27 goals). This achievement has mostly been attained through open play aimed at securing victories. Imagine if they were solely tasked with maintaining their lead throughout the match.

Arsenal's solid defense is indeed inspired by the defensive duo of Gabriel Magalhaes and Saliba. As is known, Gabriel will remain absent due to a thigh injury. His replacement is backup defender Jakub Kiwior, who was initially doubted due to limited playing time. However, Kiwior has already dispelled those doubts in the first match.

It turns out that Kiwior also has an impressive record when paired with Saliba from the start of the match. Arsenal has remained unbeaten in eight consecutive matches when they started together. Five of those matches ended without conceding a goal, including the game against Kylian Mbappe and his teammates last week.

“I don’t feel nervous,” Kiwior said ahead of the second leg. “For sure, it will be the biggest game of my career. But I have played big games (against Mbappe) in the national team. I am ready for everything. I feel very good at the moment,” the Poland international added.

History is on Arsenal's side. The two teams have met three times in the Champions League, including last week. Madrid have never scored against Arsenal. In fact, the last time they visited the Bernabeu in 2006, the Gunners came away with a 1-0 win.

Throughout the history of the Champions League, since the tournament was renamed in the 1992-93 season, there have been 47 occasions when a team has carried a lead of three or more goals into the second leg. According to The Analyst, the team that was behind has only managed to turn things around four times, or around 8.5 percent.

However, Madrid is not on the list of teams that have successfully pulled off a remontada. The last time Madrid were three goals down was in the 2012-13 season, when they lost 1-4 to Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of the semifinals. Madrid could only reply with a 2-0 win at the Bernabeu.

All of these statistics and history make Madrid the underdog in the upcoming duel. Based on predictions from the supercomputer Opta, Carlo Ancelotti's team has only an 8.9 percent chance of making it to the semifinals. Arsenal is far more favored to get past the defending champions.

But again, all the records are only on paper. The winner of Madrid versus Arsenal is determined on the field. Logic or physics theory often does not work at Bernabeu. The stadium is full of mystery. That is also what makes "El Real" the most successful team in the history of the tournament with 15 titles.

The latest evidence is last season's magical moment, in the semifinals. Madrid were already 2-3 behind Bayern Munich on aggregate with two minutes of normal time left at the Santiago Bernabeu. Then, they scored two goals in a row in the 88th minute and the first minute of injury time. Madrid advanced to the final and emerged as champions.

The mix of slim chances and high optimism for Madrid is represented by Ancelotti's words. "It's quite low (the chances of qualifying), but we have to do everything we can. It's a chance to respond to the previous bad performance. We have to believe because sometimes, a few times, it (miracles) happen at the Bernabeu," he explained. (AP/REUTERS)