Floods During the Dry Season: A Dire Warning of Climate Change

Floods and heavy rains are occurring in several countries during what is supposed to be the summer season. The death toll has surged as many did not anticipate flooding amid the dry season.

Kyodo news agency reported that the Shinkansen bullet train services to and from Tokyo were suspended on Thursday (10/7/2025) evening. This was due to heavy rain that triggered the potential for flooding and landslides in Tokyo and its surrounding areas.

A warning was issued while Japan was supposed to be in the summer season. In fact, from Monday to Wednesday, temperatures in Tokyo reached 36 degrees Celsius. Some companies even requested employees to work from home due to the excessive heat.

In Beijing, the rainfall reached 68.2 millimeters per hour on Thursday. However, during the summer season like now, it is usually either dry or at most just drizzling.

China has also issued a warning regarding the condition of 25 rivers in the southwest region. The flow and water levels of these rivers have exceeded safe limits. China has also ordered the evacuation of more than 10,000 people in Sichuan and Yunnan.

Chinese media, CCTV, reported that some rivers have recorded their highest levels since 1953. Meanwhile, in Sichuan, the Xiaocao River has recorded its highest level in the last 29 years.

China, according to meteorological authorities, is affected by the Asian monsoon in India. Hydrometeorological disasters are becoming more frequent due to climate change.

In a report by The Associated Press on Friday (11/7/2025), at least 1,300 people died in India due to floods and rain throughout 2024. In the surrounding regions of India, the death toll from hydrometeorological disasters also reached thousands. Similar to Pakistan in 2022, there were 1,700 fatalities due to flash floods.

"More than one and a half billion people live in a relatively small area of the world. This area has a major river system originating from the Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain regions that flows through it," said Saleemul Haq, Director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development.

South Asia traditionally has two monsoon seasons. The first monsoon season typically occurs from June to September. During this period, the rain moves from the southwest to the northeast. The second monsoon season lasts from October to December. In this period, the rain moves in the opposite direction.

However, as global temperatures rise due to increased gas emissions, the rainy season no longer consistently follows the two patterns. Warmer air also holds more moisture from the Indian Ocean.

During the rainy season, there are significant floods and in between dry periods. "We are witnessing a clear shift in climate patterns of the rainy season across South Asia," said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate expert at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune and author of several climate reports from the United Nations.

Climate change, according to Koll, is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. "Extreme rainfall often overwhelms drainage infrastructure in urban areas and triggers flash floods," said Koll.

High temperatures and heavy rainfall also contribute to the melting of glaciers in the Himalayan mountain region. The melting of glaciers leads to major floods and landslides.

"The melting of glaciers and changes in rainfall patterns can disrupt irrigation systems, affect crop growth, and exacerbate water scarcity," said Anjal Prakash, an environmental expert in India.

The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development in Nepal conducted a study in 2023. The report indicated that the melting of the Himalayan glaciers and the Hindu Kush mountains is at an unprecedented stage.

The impact of the thaw is that 200 out of 2,000 lakes around the two mountain ranges are at risk of overflowing. "Heavy rainfall and rising temperatures lead to snow and ice avalanches, rockslides, and other events that can trigger lake overflow. Even small glacial lakes are now overflowing and causing damage," said Finu Shresta, one of the experts in the article.

According to Miriam Jackson, a glaciology expert at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, mountains tend to be warmer than the global average. As a result, glaciers are melting rapidly.

On the other hand, disruptions in seasonal patterns trigger droughts, thereby affecting agriculture. "More than 60 percent of the population in South Asia relies on agriculture, and almost all of them depend on monsoon rainfall," said Shrestha.

Climate experts in Pakistan, Fahad Saeed, stated that South Asia has been regarded as the world's food basket for thousands of years. Climate change is disrupting food production in the region. A study conducted in 2021 found that wheat production in South Asia from 2021 to 2050 is expected to decrease by 16 percent due to drought.

The increase in global temperatures is also impacting Southeast Asia. Kwan Soo-Chen and David McCoy from United Nations University reported on June 28, 2022, that the Southeast Asian region has experienced an increase in average annual temperatures of 0.14 degrees Celsius to 0.20 degrees Celsius per decade since the 1960s.

Southeast Asia is also expected to experience an increase in the frequency of heatwaves. The high humidity in Southeast Asia will exacerbate high temperatures and increase the incidence of heat strokes and heat-related deaths.

Higher levels of energy and humidity in the atmosphere due to global warming, according to Kwan and McCoy, result in changes in rainfall patterns. An increase in average annual rainfall has been observed in Malaysia, Vietnam, and Southern Philippines.

In some regions of Southeast Asia, rainfall has decreased. In other areas, it has surged, causing severe damage. Up to 75 percent of cities in Southeast Asia will frequently experience flooding.

The impact of changes in cycles and seasons, among other things, disrupts water availability and food security. In the Mekong River Basin, water reserves are estimated to have declined to 160 million cubic meters.

Kwan and McCoy stated that climate change and extreme weather events will also increase the risk of mental illness. Children, adolescents, women, and elderly citizens are particularly at risk of experiencing anxiety and depression.

Kwan and McCoy also mentioned that higher temperatures and heat stress are expected to reduce agricultural labor capacity by up to 50 percent. Heat temperatures decrease agricultural productivity and food production in Southeast Asia. This will lead to a 5 percent increase in crop prices due to rising labor costs and production losses.

Amid the increase in disasters, early warning systems are becoming increasingly necessary. Koll stated that often the government only intervenes after a disaster has occurred. Ideally, through early warnings, the government should be present before a disaster strikes. Therefore, the development of early warning systems needs to be enhanced.

In addition, there is also a need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that trigger climate change. This is important because there is a trend of increasing emissions in Southeast Asia. From 2010 to 2019, carbon emissions rose by an average of 1.8 percent per year. In the energy sector, the rate of increase in emissions reached 5.1 percent, and in transportation, it reached 4.6 percent per year.

On the other hand, forest areas are decreasing. In fact, forests are one of the most important carbon absorbers. "If we continue as usual, and the emissions we produce remain the same, then the Earth will continue to warm, and there will be heavier rains and floods. At some point, we may exceed the limits of adaptation," said Jackson.

Kwan and McCoy stated that although there have been statements of promises and commitments from countries in Southeast Asia, these promises and commitments must be realized in concrete actions. "Even if they have been realized, faster and more radical changes are still needed to reduce emissions," both emphasized. (AP/REUTERS)