No Fresh Wind in the Red Sea

More than two weeks after the completion of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Yemen's Houthi group issued a threat. On Wednesday (12/3/2025), the Houthis threatened to resume attacks on ships in the eastern waters of Yemen.

As reported by Israeli media, The Times of Israel, the attack was aimed at pressuring Israel to immediately open access for humanitarian aid for residents of the Gaza Strip. US President Donald Trump on Saturday (3/15/2025), in a report by The New York Times, responded to the threat with an order to attack the Houthi group.

As is known, once the first phase of the ceasefire ended on March 1, 2025, Israel closed access to humanitarian aid for Gaza residents. The closure was justified by Hamas's refusal to extend the first phase. Ceasefire negotiations are still ongoing in Qatar to this day.

It is unlikely that the industry will see a major shift back to the Suez Canal in the short term.

Amid the negotiations, the threat of attacks on commercial ships and naval vessels has resurfaced. For international shipping companies, the Houthi threat serves as a reminder that the international shipping route passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea remains risky.

International shipping industry players, as reported by Reuters on December 19, 2023, have opted to change their shipping routes. From Europe, ships will pass through the Cape of Good Hope and navigate along the African continent toward Asia, and vice versa.

Route changes have been implemented since the Houthi began attacking commercial and naval vessels in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The Houthi carried out more than 100 attacks on ships. These attacks occurred between November 2023 and January 2025.

Houthi stated that the attack was an expression of solidarity for Palestine. Houthi has sunk two ships, seized one ship, and killed at least four sailors in their actions.

Houthi actions disrupt global shipping activities. The Houthi actions disrupt supply chains by changing shipping routes.

For example, kompas.id on January 22, 2024 wrote that merchant ships from the Netherlands to Taiwan chose to go around the Cape of Good Hope and then along the African continent to Taiwan. The traditional route was clearly longer than the shipping route through the Red Sea.

For comparison, from Europe to Taiwan via the Red Sea, container ships need 25.5 days to travel 10,000 nautical miles or 18,250 kilometers. While passing the Cape of Good Hope, container ships need 34 days to sail 13,500 nautical miles or 25,002 kilometers.

The Red Sea is no longer the preferred route for international shipping companies, after it accounted for about 12 percent of global trade.

The number of commercial ships using the Suez Canal to pass through the Mediterranean and Red Sea has plummeted. In 2023, the number of ships passing through the area was recorded at more than 26,000 units, in 2024 as many as 13,200 ships.

As the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire is in place, international shipping still sees the Red Sea as risky, arguing that there is no guarantee of safety and security for their crews, cargo and vessels.

“There’s no way I’m going to put my merchandise on a ship that’s going to be passing through the Red Sea for the foreseeable future,” said Jay Foreman, CEO of US-based Basic Fun.

Foreman said he would still ship via Africa even if it meant paying extra. “There’s no point in taking the risk,” Foreman said.

Matt Castle of logistics group CH Robinson said: “It is unlikely the industry will see a major shift back to the Suez Canal in the short term.”

Norwegian shipper Wallenius Wilhelmsen said it would not resume shipping through the Red Sea until it was safe. Swedish fashion retailer H&M said it was monitoring the situation.

Tailwind Shipping Lines, the shipping company owned by German supermarket chain Lidl, said the safety of its crew, ship and cargo was its top priority. EU-member navies in the Red Sea said the potential threat from the Houthis had not changed.

Daniel Muller, Middle East Intelligence analyst at maritime security firm Ambrey in the Seatrade Maritime News report of January 14, 2025, said, there are several things that keep the Red Sea at risk. It is common knowledge, Houthi attacks on international merchant ships are related to the war in Gaza. Houthi targets assets related to Israel and its allies.

Meanwhile, Muller continued, Israeli troops are very unlikely to be withdrawn from Gaza soon. Therefore, Ambrey assessed, it is unlikely that a ceasefire will immediately make the Houthis stop attacks on merchant shipping vessels.

Ambrey said the Houthi actions were linked to Israeli military forces operating in the Gaza Strip. If that assessment is correct, the Houthi threat to commercial shipping will remain until the end of the second phase of the peace process.

Another factor is the political situation in Yemen. The political situation in Yemen is also important for the shipping industry. "A renewed civil war in Yemen is still possible. If that happens, the Houthis will target more ships beyond those affiliated with Israel," Muller said.

Shipping companies, in the EconoTimes report of January 31, 2025, see the situation in the Bab al-Mandab Strait as still unpredictable. That makes them not want to quickly use the Suez Canal and Red Sea shipping lanes again.

For cargo ships to return to the Bab el-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea, shipping companies want long-term stability around the Red Sea. Again, this is related to the safety and security of crews, cargo and ships.

Muller said that if international shipping vessels want to return to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it will be done gradually. What is clear is that there is still no fresh air in the Red Sea today. (AP/REUTERS)