Disaster in North Sumatra: When Economy and Ecology Are No Longer in Tune

Landslides and flash floods that struck parts of Sumatra serve as a warning about the need to reform several extractive economic activities in the region. Continuous progress that relies on the exploitation of natural resources tends to degrade environmental quality. Instead of bringing prosperity, such progress often threatens the safety of the surrounding community.

Following the recent news reports about the flash floods that hit Sumatra, memories of early last year were brought back to us when Kompas Research and Development traveled through North Sumatra. As we entered the North Padang Lawas area, our car became stuck in a mud puddle, unable to move forward or backward for approximately an hour.

Heavy rain the night before had made the dirt road through the oil palm plantation muddy. While waiting for the car to be freed from the trap, Kompas Research and Development observed several children returning home from school having to navigate the muddy road. This illustrates that even under normal circumstances, local residents living surrounded by plantations struggle to get around. It's easy to imagine that when rainfall increases, road access for these residents will become even more difficult.

The situation has become increasingly unavoidable, especially when extreme weather occurred recently due to Cyclone Senyar in the northern part of Sumatra. Large-scale flooding and landslides took place in several areas of Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra. The disaster caused tremendous damage and resulted in the disruption of access to several affected regions. Land transportation, electricity networks, telecommunications, and the distribution of goods experienced disturbances, further complicating post-disaster response efforts.

As of now, one week after the flash floods and landslides struck North Sumatra, the number of victims continues to rise each day. Referring to the monitoring data from the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) as of December 12, 2025, at 05:00 WIB, a total of 753 people have died. Additionally, 650 others have been reported missing, and at least 2,600 people have sustained injuries.

The massive number of victims resulting from the hydrometeorological disaster serves as a stern warning for the affected regions that there is an escalating threat of natural disasters. So far, the three regions impacted by the disaster caused by Tropical Cyclone Senyar have indeed frequently experienced floods and landslides every year. It can be imagined that if other tropical cyclone threats arise in the future, the potential for damage will be substantial.

The routine occurrence of disasters indicates environmental degradation from upstream to downstream areas. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct evaluations and improvements as soon as possible to continuously minimize the threat of similar hydrometeorological disasters.

Referring to the report from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the intensity of disaster occurrences in the three regions in northern Sumatra is classified as quite frequent. In fact, the number of incidents has been recorded to increase year by year. In North Sumatra Province, for instance, there were 32 flood events recorded in 2018. However, last year, preliminary data from BPS indicated that floods had struck North Sumatra 101 times. The peak occurred in 2023 with 112 flood incidents. Similarly, landslides also occurred dozens of times in several areas.

Similarly, this is the case with two other provinces. In Aceh, the most flood incidents occurred in 2022, totaling 110 events. Meanwhile, in West Sumatra, there were 72 flood occurrences affecting several areas. The ongoing trend of disaster events indicates a disruption in the natural balance system in the regions of North Sumatra, West Sumatra, and Aceh.

Indeed, the presence of Tropical Cyclone Senyar has significantly escalated the disaster to a very large and destructive level in many areas. However, the environmental degradation occurring in the northern region of Sumatra further exacerbates the damage caused by the cyclone. In addition to the climate crisis, the ecological crisis has become a pressing issue following the disaster that struck parts of northern Sumatra.

One of the factors that is at the root of environmental degradation in the region is land conversion closely related to deforestation. According to Forestry Statistics, until last year, thousands of hectares of forest areas in the three provinces have experienced reduction. In terms of area, the largest decrease occurred in Aceh, with an extent of 5.3 thousand hectares. Meanwhile, in North Sumatra, the area is 3.9 thousand hectares, and in West Sumatra, it is 4.8 thousand hectares.

Compared to a decade ago, similar statistical records indicate a decrease in the annual deforestation rate. In 2013, the deforestation figures in the three regions were 7,300 hectares in Aceh; 10,200 hectares in North Sumatra; and 7,600 hectares in West Sumatra. Referring to these records suggests that the rate of logging has experienced a decline.

However, this deforestation must still be monitored as it represents a gradual and slow action of forest clearing for specific economic purposes. This is something that should not be continuously carried out. Referring to the same records, deforestation is actually occurring massively in protected forests and conservation forests.

Even in Aceh, the phenomenon is quite extreme. The opening of land in protected forests has actually increased. In addition, the opening of land in conservation forests has also grown. A similar situation is occurring in North Sumatra and Aceh, where deforestation in conservation areas has also been recorded as increasingly massive compared to a decade ago.

This phenomenon has become one of the causes of the increasing vulnerability of the area to disaster threats. As established by the government in Law No. 41 of 1999, protected forests naturally function as a life support system. One of their primary functions is to prevent flooding. Meanwhile, conservation forests are intended to preserve biodiversity and the sustainability of their ecosystems. The Sumatra region itself is, in fact, home to various species of rare and protected animals.

So, what is the purpose of this indiscriminate deforestation? It has become evident that the forests, which serve as the lungs of the world, have been converted into vast expanses of palm oil plantations spread across various regions of Sumatra Island.

The relentless rate of deforestation is occurring in tandem with the expanding palm oil plantations in the three relevant provinces. In Aceh Province, for instance, palm oil land has increased by more than 30 percent compared to the year 2011. The same is true for North Sumatra and West Sumatra.

Although not the largest, the contributions of the three westernmost provinces in the country cannot be underestimated. This is because they are among the top 10 provinces with the largest areas of oil palm plantations in the entire nation. The same goes for their palm oil production.

The significant role of palm oil for the three provinces is also reflected in the related regional economic records. In the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) structure of each province, agriculture is the most dominant sector. At least one-fifth of the regional economy is driven by this primary sector.

Upon closer examination, the plantation subsector is its main backbone. In fact, compared to a decade ago, its contribution to the regional economy has become increasingly dominant. This is particularly evident in the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra. In Aceh, the role of plantations in the provincial GDP has increased by nearly five percent during that period.

In North Sumatra, the increase is not too significant. However, it seems that other subsectors will not be able to displace the contribution of the plantation subsector to the provincial GDP. This is because, out of the 22 percent contribution of agriculture to the provincial GDP, the plantation subsector accounts for nearly three-quarters of that share, or 15.15 percent.

In West Sumatra, the increase in contributions from plantations is not particularly striking. However, among the agricultural subsectors, the contribution from plantations is now the largest, surpassing the dominance of the food crop subsector.

The massive plantation subsector developed in these three provinces is palm oil. Publications from each province indicate that palm oil production contributes the most among other plantation products.

On one hand, in addition to boosting the regional economy, per capita income in the three provinces has also increased. Of course, this per capita GDP also involves other economic sectors. However, plantations have become one of the strong driving factors as their contribution continues to grow.

Unfortunately, the expanse of palm oil plantations does not automatically bring prosperity to its residents. This is evident in North Sumatra, for instance. When looking at the regions, Asahan Regency, Langkat, the Labuhanbatu area, and Padang Lawas Regency are considered the "warehouses" of palm oil plantations. Their total production accounts for approximately 85 percent of all palm oil produced in North Sumatra.

However, it is in these production centers that pockets of poverty exist in North Sumatra. In Asahan Regency, for example, the largest palm oil producer in North Sumatra is still not free from the clutches of poverty. The poverty rate still exceeds the provincial average. In fact, Asahan has been recorded as a major producer of palm oil in North Sumatra for at least a decade. Instead of decreasing, the poverty rate in Asahan in 2023 has actually increased compared to a decade earlier.

"If the landowners are certainly wealthy. But the workers remain in the same condition," said Rizki (27) in a written message, a young man from Asahan Regency who now works in Medan. This is a clear illustration that the vast expanse of thousands of palm oil plantations does not necessarily translate into significant financial benefits for the surrounding residents. In fact, lifting the local population out of poverty is not an easy task. As has become common knowledge, the largest share of profits is certainly more likely to flow into the pockets of the corporations that manage them.

A similar fact is revealed in a book titled The Paradox of Agrarian Change: Food Security and the Politics of Social Protection in Indonesia, which draws on research findings by Henry Sitorus. The study found that the massive presence of palm oil in Asahan is not in line with the welfare of its citizens, as reflected in the high stunting rates.

A similar phenomenon of inequality is also occurring in other palm oil "warehouses" in North Sumatra, such as Langkat, South Labuhanbatu, and North Labuhanbatu. This is also evident among other palm oil producers in Aceh and West Sumatra. In Aceh Singkil, for instance, the second-largest palm oil producer in Aceh has become the poorest district in all of Aceh. In fact, in 2012, the poverty rate in Aceh Singkil was still below the national average, ranking 15th.

In the province of West Sumatra, poverty continues to surround the main palm oil producing areas, such as in Agam, South Pesisir, and West Pasaman.

In turn, palm oil cultivation, which does not automatically eradicate poverty, actually has the potential to pose significant threats. A series of disaster events, particularly floods and landslides, that have occurred alongside the massive conversion of forest land into palm oil plantations strongly signal that environmental balance has been disrupted. Ultimately, it is the surrounding residents who must bear the risks.

The natural disaster in northern Sumatra should serve as a valuable lesson for restructuring development in this country. The pursuit of high economic growth must be accompanied by a spirit of environmental conservation for the sake of future generations. We must avoid creating economic progress that actually results in environmental damage and threatens the lives of those living in the surrounding areas. (Kompas Research and Development)