When the Scale of Disaster Damage Disproportionately Compares to the Availability of Government Budgets

The budget for disaster management in Indonesia remains very limited. The amount of funding provided by the government is still disproportionate to the losses caused by disasters each year. Ironically, the already meager budget is increasingly shrinking in allocation during this administration.

Based on data from the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) from 2023 to October 2025, the average number of disaster events affecting Indonesia per year exceeds 2,500 incidents. Specifically, in 2023, the total number of various disaster events reached 5,400 incidents, and in 2024, there were 3,472 events. This year, up to mid-October 2025, the national total of disasters has reached 2,590 incidents.

Of all the disasters, the majority are triggered by hydrometeorological events. Between 2023 and 2025, an average of approximately 98 percent of natural disasters each year will be hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, landslides, extreme weather, droughts, and forest and land fires. Thus, the various disasters caused by weather factors such as the hydrological cycle, rainfall, wind, temperature, and humidity pose a serious threat that constantly looms over Indonesia at all times.

The threat of disasters is becoming increasingly complex due to Indonesia's geographical conditions, which are prone to geological disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Such phenomena make Indonesia highly vulnerable to various disasters that could occur at any time.

Similar to the natural disaster that recently occurred at the end of November in the northern region of Sumatra, triggered by Tropical Cyclone Senyar. The extreme weather that caused heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods and landslides affecting 51 districts/cities in the provinces of West Sumatra, North Sumatra, and Aceh.

According to a report from BNPB as of Saturday, December 6, 2025, at 14:00, the number of fatalities caused by the hydrometeorological disaster reached 883 individuals. The number of missing persons is 520; 4,200 individuals were injured; and approximately 826,000 people were forced to evacuate.

The number of victims is likely to increase as there are still several areas with restricted access. Not all disaster recovery processes have been optimally implemented on the ground.

According to the latest BNPB disaster emergency management dashboard, many disaster-stricken areas in northern Sumatra remain cut off from access. These include areas in central Aceh, around the Barisan Mountains, and into southern Aceh, around the Leuser Mountains. Access in North Sumatra, including areas around the Barisan Mountains, including Tapanuli and Sibolga, remains cut off. Similarly, in West Sumatra, areas in the Barisan Mountains experienced the worst impact of the disaster. Access in parts of Padang Pariaman remains cut off to date.

There are several reasons that have caused the disaster emergency response process to not run optimally. In addition to the large scale of the disaster and its spread across various regions, it may also be due to limitations in equipment, a shortage of professional human resources, and minimal budgetary allocations.

With the massive destructive power of disasters, a swift response is certainly required, along with significant budgetary implications for recovery. However, it seems that the issue of budget constraints has become quite prominent at this time. This is indicated by the slow progress of emergency response efforts observed in the field, even though more than 10 days have passed since the incident.

So, how should the central government and regional governments respond to this disaster?

According to the Financial Note Report and the 2026 State Budget Draft, the Ministry of Finance states that over the past 15 years, the average annual loss due to various disasters in Indonesia has reached Rp 22.8 trillion. Ironically, from the estimated total losses, the government budget for addressing national disasters remains significantly disproportionate. The budget managed directly by the central government or local governments often does not match the scale of the disaster losses incurred.

In fact, the disaster budget allocated for vertical institutions has increasingly diminished under the current administration of President Prabowo. At least, there are three ministries/agencies that have budget allocations directly related to disaster management, both preventive and curative in nature.

The three institutions are BNPB through the disaster resilience program; Basarnas through the search and rescue program for accidents and disasters; and the Ministry of Environment (KLH), which previously merged with the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK) through the disaster resilience and climate change programs.

Based on the 2026 State Budget data, from 2021 to 2026, the budget for BNPB, Basarnas, and KLH has shrunk by an average of around 30 percent or approximately Rp 1.400 trillion per year. In 2021, the budget for these three disaster-related institutions reached Rp 8.1 trillion, with about 84 percent allocated to BNPB. However, this year, the cumulative disaster budget for these three institutions has drastically decreased to Rp 2.22 trillion. BNPB still holds an allocation of about 80 percent, but with a significant reduction in nominal value from Rp 6.8 trillion in 2021 to Rp 1.78 trillion this year.

In the upcoming year of 2026, the disaster budget allocation for the three institutions will be further reduced to approximately Rp 873 billion. Its proportion is no longer dominated by BNPB, but has shifted to Basarnas with an allocation of around Rp 564 billion or 64 percent of the total disaster budget across the three institutions. In the following year, the disaster resilience budget for BNPB will be drastically cut down to Rp 250 billion.

The budget policy indirectly reflects the government's lack of attention to the phenomenon of disasters occurring in Indonesia. The government seems to overlook the significant threats posed by disasters that occur every year in Indonesia.

Indeed, the government has set aside a natural disaster relief reserve fund of approximately IDR 5 trillion per year, as well as a disaster pooling fund (PFB) of approximately IDR 1 trillion. However, these amounts are relatively disproportionate to the ever-present risk of natural disasters.

If we reflect on the disaster events from 2021 to mid-2025, the absorption of disaster reserve funds has indeed met the financial needs required during disaster occurrences, both during emergency response and post-disaster recovery. Except for the year 2024, where the fund absorption exceeded 100 percent of the allocation. This indicates that the surge in disaster funding needs can occur at any time and is urgent, without the possibility of delay.

From this reality, the government should reflect that the budget required to address disasters on a national scale is still relatively limited. With the intensity of disasters reaching more than 2,500 incidents per year and the threat of a climate crisis, it is only appropriate that the disaster budget allocation is increased, rather than, conversely, reduced.

The increasingly limited budget policy for disaster anticipation indicates that the government's awareness and attention to disaster vulnerability is relatively minimal. In fact, this nation has faced large-scale disasters often enough to significantly disrupt the economy of the affected regions.

Since the Reform Era, there have been at least 9 large-scale disasters in Indonesia. The value of the losses incurred is so massive that it cannot be anticipated by the local government. In fact, the central government has also been overwhelmed in addressing several of these major disaster events, necessitating assistance from external government entities or foreign parties.

If detailed from the beginning, the major natural disasters include the Aceh tsunami in 2004, which resulted in the largest losses amounting to approximately Rp 51.4 trillion. This was followed by the Yogyakarta earthquake in 2006, with total losses reaching Rp 29.15 trillion; the Padang earthquake in 2009, with losses of Rp 28.5 trillion; the Central Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami in 2018, valued at Rp 23.1 trillion; and the NTB earthquake in 2018, with losses of Rp 18.2 trillion.

Furthermore, the 2015 forest and land fire disaster caused Rp 16.1 trillion in losses; the 2007 Jakarta floods, which cost Rp 5.18 trillion; and the 2010 eruption of Mount Merapi, which resulted in losses of up to Rp 3.63 trillion. (Kompas.id, 11/28/2025)

All of these natural disaster events have incurred losses exceeding the budgetary capacity of the respective provincial regional revenue and expenditure budget (APBD). The exception is the flood in DKI Jakarta in 2007, where the loss amount was still significantly below the APBD of Jakarta at that time.

This phenomenon illustrates that natural disaster events are very difficult to project in terms of when they will occur and the scale of the damage, which poses significant challenges for affected areas that indeed have limited budgets and mitigation measures. Many casualties occur, infrastructure suffers damage, government operations come to a halt, and the economy collapses temporarily. In this regard, the role of the central government is crucial for promptly addressing the situation during disaster response and post-disaster recovery.

Regarding disasters, the government has at least twice declared the status of a disaster to be elevated to a national disaster, namely the Flores earthquake and tsunami in 1992 and the Aceh tsunami in 2004. With this status, the state takes a primary role because the local governments have been overwhelmed in handling the emergency response to the disaster or for its subsequent recovery.

Reflecting on the incident, particularly regarding the hydrometeorological disaster in the northern region of Sumatra this time, at least three areas have had their regents declare an inability to manage the disaster, namely the Regent of South Aceh, East Aceh, and Pidie. Additionally, the Deputy Chairman of the North Sumatra Regional House of Representatives has urged that the disaster events in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra be designated as a national disaster. A similar statement was made by the Governor of West Sumatra, Mahyeldi Ansharullah, expressing the hope that this disaster event would be declared a national disaster due to the limited budget available to the West Sumatra provincial government.

Until now, the government has not declared the disaster in the northern region of Sumatra as a national disaster. This may be because the central government believes that the local government is still capable of managing the disaster.

However, it's also possible that the central government is struggling financially to handle the situation, making it unable to take over. This is evident in the increasingly limited funding allocated to institutions involved in natural disasters. Even relying on the disaster management reserve fund, only around Rp 4 trillion remains out of the Rp 5 trillion allocated. Yet, the losses from the disaster in Sumatra are likely far greater than this budget allocation. (KOMPAS LITBANG)