Despite their superiority, the US and Israel will suffer if Iran becomes inflamed.

On paper, Iran is not as strong as the United States. Iran has become more vulnerable after the war with Israel in June 2025. Additionally, there are domestic issues with waves of anti-government protests.

However, Iran vows to retaliate against any U.S. attack "fiercely" if the U.S. dares to strike Iran. Although many predict that Iran will not be able to win against the U.S., Iran can still make the U.S. and its allies, Israel, flounder and suffer.

"Any country will certainly react to acts of aggression; and in a fierce manner. That is what we will do," said the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmaeil Baqaei, on Thursday (27/2/2026).

The statement was made before the US-Iran negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, concluded on Thursday evening local time or early Friday morning WIB. The negotiations resulted in an agreement regarding a follow-up meeting in Vienna, Austria, next week.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi considers this negotiation a new opportunity for both parties. However, there is a risk of regional conflict if Iran is attacked. "The consequences of any new aggression will not be limited to one country, and the responsibility will lie with those who initiate or support such actions," he stated.

The risk of this conflict has heightened the concerns of various other countries that are hastily taking preventive measures. India has urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately.

This follows the advisories from Sweden, Serbia, Poland, and Australia, which have also issued similar warnings. The United States had previously issued a similar advisory.

Even the US admits its weakness. At least that's according to a statement from US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine.

He warned of various risks associated with a U.S. attack on Iran. Moreover, if the attack is carried out in the long term. These risks are currently being considered by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Caine told The Washington Post that there were problems with ammunition shortages and support from allies, which increased the potential danger to US troops. The Wall Street Journal also stated that Pentagon officials had warned of the risk of US and allied casualties and the depletion of US defenses if Iran attacked Iran.

U.S. Special Envoy for Peace Steve Witkoff also continues to urge Trump not to rush into attacking Iran. "I am the one making the decision. I would prefer there to be an agreement. However, if we cannot reach an agreement, it will be a very bad day for Iran and, unfortunately, for its people," said Trump.

The United States estimates that Iran still possesses hundreds of missiles capable of striking the U.S. and Israel. Iran also has a significantly larger number of short-range missiles that can target U.S. military bases in Gulf countries and U.S. warships operating offshore. This is according to the United States.

Iranian officials feel they need to deliver a decisive blow to Trump. If not, they will always be in a risky position of being attacked.

However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that Iran's missile program is solely for self-defense. "We are not developing long-range missiles. We have deliberately limited the range of our missiles to below 2,000 kilometers because we don't want to. We don't want to be a threat to the world. This is solely for self-defense," Araghchi said in an exclusive interview with the India Today newspaper.

A few days earlier, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Iran could sink U.S. warships. The U.S. attack on Iran also triggers regional warfare. Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Amir Saeid Iravani stated that all bases, facilities, and assets of enemy forces in the Middle East would become legitimate targets.

However, Trump believes that the United States will easily defeat Iran in any war. On social media, Trump stated that the United States does not actually want to go to war. However, if it must attack Iran, the United States will win easily.

Trump, who ordered an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities last year, has repeatedly threatened Iran with further military action if the two sides do not reach an agreement. It seems that Trump believes Iran is already weakened because the US and Israel destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities last year.

However, until now, it is unknown the extent of the damage and how much has been rebuilt. Iran is still able to attack Israel with missiles and drones.

Iranian expert at the Israel National Security Studies Institute, Danny Citrinowicz, explained that Iran's short-range missile arsenal remains largely untouched. With these missiles, Iran could target U.S. forces stationed in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and other locations.

Iran may be weak, but it still has ways to make the US and Israel suffer.

"Iranian officials feel they need to deal Trump a major blow. Otherwise, they will always be at risk of attack," wrote Nate Swanson, Director for Iran at the US National Security Council (2022-2025) and now Head of the Atlantic Council's Iran Strategy Project, in Foreign Affairs magazine, February 24, 2026.

Swanson was once part of the negotiating team for Iran during the Trump administration. According to him, Trump failed to understand that, although weak, it does not mean that Iran would surrender at the negotiating table.

Conversely, Iran's current fragility only narrows the space for compromise. Trump also lacks a strong reason to attack Iran. While Iran poses a threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East, it does not present a direct threat to the United States.

Citrinowicz added that Iran has eight months to learn from their mistakes and strengthen internal security. There is a possibility of an emergency plan in the event of Khamenei's death. Instead of appointing a single successor, power is likely to shift to a small committee until hostilities subside.

Even if Khamenei, who has ruled Iran for more than 30 years, is killed, experts are not convinced that Iran will come to an end. Iran's power may ultimately shift to members of his inner circle, as has happened in Venezuela, or to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a Senate hearing at the end of last month, also acknowledged that no one truly knows what would happen if Khamenei were to fall. The U.S. continues to hope for change in Iran.

However, according to Mona Yacoubian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran is far more complex than Venezuela. Iran has more dispersed centers of power. If the U.S. were to attack its highest leader, such an action could lead to even greater chaos in Iran.

Israel is clearly concerned about the possibility of a regional war. Moreover, considering that Iran also has its own allies, including the Houthi group in Yemen, armed groups in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Palestine.

Although this "Resistance Axis" has weakened, Israel remains concerned that they could unite against the US and Israel from anywhere. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of a strong retaliation if Iran attacks Israel.

Arab Gulf countries have long been concerned about Iran and rely on the United States for defense and security. However, they do not wish to become involved in war.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which host thousands of US troops, have stated that they will not allow their airspace to be used. They are making significant efforts to prevent war due to the severe consequences, including a spike in oil prices. (REUTERS/AFP/AP)