Incumbents Still Dominate Regional Executive Space

The results of the Kompas Research and Development investigation of 508 regional heads at the district and city levels and 37 provinces show that most of them are incumbents. This phenomenon is seen at both levels of regional government.

When viewed from the total number of regional head candidates who advanced at the district and city levels, the number of incumbents is indeed relatively smaller at around 37 percent. However, the success rate of these incumbents is quite large. The proof is that more than half of the elected regional heads are incumbents.

Similar findings can also be seen in the results of provincial elections. When contesting, only about a third of regional head candidates were incumbents.

However, looking at the regional heads who won the election based on the General Election Commission's (KPU) vote recapitulation, around 51 percent of them were incumbents.

The magnitude of the incumbent's power in the 2024 national simultaneous regional elections varies quite a bit. In several provinces, the electability of incumbents is quite high to the point that the majority of elected regional heads are incumbents.

However, there are also several regions where the incumbent's electability rate is relatively low.

During the contestation period, there were several regions with the highest level of incumbent participation.

Some of the provinces are Bangka Belitung Islands, West Kalimantan, Lampung, East Kalimantan, Riau Kalimantan, Riau Islands and North Sulawesi. In these provinces, more than half of the candidates competing are incumbents.

Meanwhile, there are regions with a low percentage of regional head candidates. Some of these regions include Aceh, Central Papua, West Papua, Central Sulawesi, South Papua, Papua, and Maluku. In these provinces, the proportion of incumbents is less than 30 percent of all candidates competing.

Some areas that are read as quite dominated by incumbents are West Kalimantan, Bangka Belitung Islands, Gorontalo, North Kalimantan, and North Maluku. In these provinces, more than 80 percent of the elected regents and mayors are incumbents.

On the other hand, in some regions, the incumbent's electability rate is low. Several provinces with the lowest incumbent victory rates at the district and city levels are in Aceh, Papua, DI Yogyakarta, South Kalimantan, Central Papua, and West Sumatra.

In some of these areas, the winning rate of the incumbents who contested was less than 30 percent. In fact, of the elected regents and mayors in Aceh Province, 4.5 percent were incumbents.

Interestingly, the political capital owned by the incumbent is also supported by the political power of the party coalition. This can be seen from the cross-analysis of the elected incumbents and the political coalition that supports them.

As a result, most of the incumbents at the district/city level who won the contest were candidates supported by parties that were members of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM).

In percentage terms, more than 62 percent of the incumbent winners were supported by the same coalition in the central government.

This proportion is much larger compared to the strength of the incumbents of other political axes. In comparison, only about 30 percent of incumbents who won the district and city elections were supported by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

Not only that, the incumbent winner of the election who came from non-KIM and non-PDI-P forces, only reached around 8 percent.

The dominance of incumbents who won again in the 2024 simultaneous regional elections can be interpreted in two ways.

First, the local political landscape is still quite closed, making it difficult for new figures to gain attention and win contests.

Not infrequently, political dominance at the regional level is passed down to relatives until it becomes a continuing political dynasty.

Second, the incumbent's dominance could be a test for the climate of democracy in the region. With the increasingly narrow space for new figures, political regeneration could be hampered. Not to mention, the potential risk of misappropriation and corruption that could arise from such prolonged dominance.

This concern is not a figment of the imagination. Previously, the dominance of incumbents that "evolved" into dynasties proved to be fertile ground for corruption, as

occurred in several areas in Banten and West Java. As a result, the development in these areas did not run optimally.

However, on the other hand, the executive positions being filled again by incumbents could be a good sign for the sustainability of development.

The reason is that a change of regime often brings about a change in policy direction that negates the development progress of the previous government.

Hopefully, the phenomenon of the incumbent's high electability in this election can realize the assumption of sustainability. (LITBANG KOMPAS)