Turkish Politics in Turmoil, Erdogan Thwarts His Strongest Rival

ISTANBUL, WEDNESDAY - Turkey's domestic politics are in turmoil. Turkish authorities detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu (53) on Wednesday (19/3/2025). Imamoglu was detained on allegations of corruption and terrorism. Imamoglu is a presidential candidate from the opposition party and the main rival of Turkey's President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Imamoglu was detained along with approximately 100 other individuals, including Media Advisor Murat Ongun, journalists, and businesspeople. Originating from the opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), Imamoglu faces two separate investigations involving allegations of leading a criminal organization, bribery, and tender manipulation.

According to a statement from the Istanbul Prosecutor's Office, the first investigation pertains to criminal activities involving specific tenders awarded by the municipal government. Meanwhile, the second investigation concerns the case of Imamoglu and six other individuals accused of aiding the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The Turkish authorities consider PKK a terrorist organization.

"The will of the people cannot be silenced through intimidation or unlawful actions. I stand firm, entrusting myself to the 16 million residents of Istanbul, 86 million citizens of Turkey, and all those who uphold democracy and justice around the world," tweeted Imamoglu on the English version of his account on platform X.

Dozens of riot police were seen outside Imamoglu's home, CNNTurk reported. They were searching his home as part of an investigation. Imamoglu's office did not immediately provide a reason for the detention. A Turkish police spokesman confirmed Imamoglu's detention.

"He was arrested and is now at police headquarters," the spokesman said.

Ahead of the arrest, authorities had closed several roads in Istanbul. For four days, demonstrations in the city were prohibited to prevent public protests following Imamoglu's arrest.

Challenges continue to obstruct Imamoglu's path. A day before his detention, Istanbul University annulled Imamoglu's bachelor's degree on Tuesday (18/3/2025). According to the university, he was suspected of committing irregularities when transferring from a private university in northern Cyprus to the Faculty of Business Administration in 1990.

Without a university degree, Imamoglu would not be able to run under the rules. “We will take this illegitimate decision to court and fight it. But I am not sure a fair decision will come out,” Imamoglu said, referring to the political pressure he is under.

The CHP and another opposition party, the Good Party (IYI), condemned the cancellation of Imamoglu's diploma. The Istanbul Mayor's Office had issued a copy of Imamoglu's diploma from Istanbul University in 1995.

Separately, police also detained a prominent investigative journalist, Ismail Saymaz, the opposition-aligned Halk TV reported.

Imamoglu's detention and annulment is a major blow to the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). He was supposed to be named as the presidential candidate for the upcoming election. The CHP will hold its primary election on March 23, 2025.

Imamoglu has long been seen as a formidable challenger to Erdogan. He has not shied away from criticizing Erdogan and his government in recent months. “We will build a system that will erase injustice from the memory of this country,” Imamoglu vowed last year.

Imamoglu was elected Mayor of Istanbul in March 2019. This was a historic victory considering that Erdogan and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), had controlled Istanbul for 25 years.

The AKP had accused Imamoglu of cheating, so a re-election was held. Again, Imamoglu emerged victorious. In 2024, Imamoglu again retained his seat in the regional elections. The CHP won significantly over the AKP.

The CHP's victory has unsettled the ruling party. Türkiye's presidential election is scheduled for 2028. But calls for an early national election have been growing. Erdogan, who has been in power for more than two decades, will again be the AKP's candidate.

With the arrest, it is unlikely that a vote in the CHP will take place. CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel condemned Imamoglu's detention, calling it a coup. So did another opposition party, the Good Party (IYI).

"Right now, there are powerful forces preventing the country from choosing the next president. We are facing a coup attempt against our next president," Ozel said.

Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas is expected to be the CHP's alternative presidential candidate. Yavas has voiced support for Imamoglu.

The case against Imamoglu is a dramatic escalation of the government's crackdown on the opposition. Imamoglu, in particular, has been embroiled in numerous legal cases in recent years. Three new cases have been opened this year alone.

In 2022, he was also sentenced to two years and seven months in prison for “insulting” members of Türkiye’s Supreme Election Council in 2022. He is appealing the sentence. If rejected, he could face a political ban.

Regarding the various cases that Imamoglu has been accused of and charged with, the Turkish government insists that the courts operate independently. The Turkish government also denies claims that legal action against the opposition figure is politically motivated.

But some have a different perspective. “This is another turning point in Turkey’s democratic decline. It is seen by many opposition groups as a very intimidating move,” said Seda Demiralp, head of the International Relations Department at Isik University in Istanbul.

Demiralp continued, the regime seems to be using all means to suppress the opposition. "Including revoking someone's diploma after 30 years," he added.

Wolfango Piccoli, of political firm Teneo, said the cancellation of Imamoglu’s diploma showed Erdogan knew it was difficult for him to win the election. “The decision to revoke the diploma does more than just undermine fair electoral competition by eliminating the strongest opponent. It reflects the courage and strength to dictate what is real and what is not by controlling the state apparatus,” he wrote for The Guardian.

Following Imamoglu's arrest, internet watchdog Netblocks reported that Türkiye restricted access to several social media platforms, including X, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok. (AP/AFP/Reuters)